RADIO
It was only fitting that our Valentine's themed Breaking $100 last week resulted in Max Homa breaking our heart with another 2nd-place outright this season. He fought bravely but ultimately Jon Rahm's exceptional play and grandstand finish, which required a bounce off an actual grandstand to tap-in-eagle, was just too much to overcome. It just seemed destined that Rahm would win this event and outside of not betting this week, with Rahm at borderline unbettable odds, we were right on the scent of victory.
Jon Rahm is now the world No. 1 and we are in store for a titanic struggle for the top spot in the world rankings if Rory can tee it up on the east coast in the form that he left Europe with. Let's not forget Scottie Scheffler was World No. 1 just a week ago, after winning the WMPO. If those three, and the likes of Homa, Cantlay, etc. can continue to challenge for wins, these elevated events are going to be amazing viewing. Let's dive into our card.
But before we do that, for those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
Thank You!
If you are looking for golf betting content, breeze over this section as this one is basically me thanking you, the readers of this piece, for your support and encouragement over the last year. The very first article I wrote for RotoBaller was The Honda Classic in 2022, with this week's event signifying the 1-year anniversary of "Breaking $100" which has been one of the biggest blessings in my life.
I work a very uninspired day job as an accountant, but since writing and podcasting about golf in a part-time capacity, I am now the happiest I have been since entering the work world six years ago and hope to one day do this full-time. I want to thank @JoeNicely for being the best lead editor a new writer could ask for! I have learned so much and grown as a writer under your guidance and feel very fortunate to have had your unwavering tutelage at my disposal.
Spencer Aguiar @TeeOffSports deserves his own paragraph of praise for a large chunk of my recent success in this space. He saw what I believed I was capable of but lacked the confidence to actually tackle in the form of written content creation. A year later, we will find out this Wednesday evening whether I can return his title of FSWA "Golf Writer of the Year" which he so deservingly won last year, back to the RotoBaller brand courtesy of this "Breaking $100" series, which Spencer was instrumental in getting off the ground. Thanks my buddy!
The RotoBaller brand and ownership have been a fantastic environment to blossom as a writer and podcaster. This opportunity has seen me actually work my butt off for an extended period of time, for the first time in my life. I have never fully committed to anything the way I have with all my golf endeavors, and RotoBaller has been a fantastic space to spread my wings and flap as hard as possible. I am thrilled to see where RotoBaller PGA will be this time next year.
If you have made it this far, and also have an uninspired 9-to-5 that just pays the bills, please set aside 15 minutes of your life in the next few days to sit down in a productive atmosphere and think about something you are passionate about, and then come up with the smallest of goals to turn that hobby or passion, somehow, into something that could potentially lead to a new career or part-time venture. Even the smallest of steps in a direction towards your passion can lead to eventual "work" in that industry that hopefully brings you as much happiness as typing this article does for me.
And if you are still looking for a little motivation to get the ball rolling, give this series of podcasts a listen @ SiaNejadSports.com. The host of the show, Sia, is actually a sports content creator, interviewing guests he has found to be of inspirational nature within this sports betting industry. All it takes is for one listener of a podcast to have their life changed and that pod would have served its purpose. Why not you?
Okay, soppy sentimental stuff behind us. Let's find some winners!!!
Outrights
If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there throughout the week. By the time I get to writing this article, odds have often shortened to varying degrees, so if you are interested in following along with the best numbers, jump into that discord.
We had a pretty good read of the board last week with 20-1 Homa (2nd), 45-1 Zalatoris (4th), and 125-1 Fleetwood (20th). Beavis and Butthead almost came through for us!
The quality of golfers in this week's field is significantly diminished the week after back-to-back elevated events, which leaves us betting longer odds. We are also only betting $10 compared to the usual $15, as we are comfortable with the four guys we have and know this event's volatility should encourage us to be a little more defensive with our bankroll. We tend to have a better read of the big boy fields than these fields with literally half the world ranking points.
Matt Kuchar ($5.19 @ +2800 DraftKings)
We are living in a world where Matt Kuchar has shorter odds to win this week (28) than his age (44). However, that number is relatively fair considering the caliber of golf the wily old-timer has been playing this year. Kuchar finished T7 at the Sony Open and gained a whopping 4.5 true strokes more than he did in his Sony performance, in his 8th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational last week, a testament to the field strength. What is even more impressive about this, is that he lost over two strokes putting, which he has only done twice in his last 25 starts.
Through 8 starts, Kuchar's ball striking has returned to a baseline similar to his pre-2021 years. Kuchar's swing speed does not afford him the ability to recover out of the rough with a powerfully struck, high fade that lands like a butterfly with sore feet. This makes accuracy off the tee imperative for his success on approach. Last week Kuchar displayed a continuation of off-the-tee success that has seen him finish T12 or better three times this year. His only start losing strokes off the tee this season came in a single shot-link round at Pebble Beach where the wind was whipping across the "unfairways".
Kuchar finished T17, the last time he teed it up here ... in 2011, so we can expect him to contend for the win at a course that emphasizes accuracy off the tee, impressive iron play, and a short game that will be working overtime trying to reach a potential winning score around 10 under par. He will be teeing it up in a field lacking the majority of the young, athletic superstars who he beat up with his "tee-to-green Zimmer Frame" (patent pending) last week, making him our favorite to win the first Florida swing event of 2023.
Hayden Buckley ($2.29 @ +6500 DraftKings)
En route to missing the cut at the Genesis Invitational last week, Hayden Buckley lead the field in strokes gained off the tee, hitting 75% of his fairways. He managed to lose 5 strokes on approach, which, around Riviera, is not surprising for his maiden appearance at one of the most challenging and nuanced golf courses in existence.
Buckley ranks 10th in strokes gained off the tee, IN THE WORLD! Cameron Young sits in the 11th spot, and Jon Rahm in 8th, just to put things into perspective. But, relative to those superstars around him in the top-10 OTT, his other stats are as lost as a fart in a perfume factory, with his putter ranking 77th as his next best attribute.
However, this week the strength of this field is such, that only six of the top-15 golfers OTT are positive in strokes gained total. Meanwhile, 10 of the top 15 in the world (SG OTT) sit inside the top 20 in total strokes gained, proving that gaining off the tee is so important to overall success on tour. Buckley has gained the ninth-most strokes in this field over the last 24 rounds, and he has shown he can spike with his putter recently.
Anything can happen over four rounds of golf, but Buckley's extreme accuracy with his driver and driving irons should see him navigate the majority of the hazards lurking on either side of the fairways, essentially only having to battle with the ones around the green. It is going to be a wild, windy week, but Hayden's elite accuracy has us feeling safely buckled in for the PGA National rollercoaster.
Byeong Hun An ($1.65 @ +9000 BetRivers enhanced odds tab)
The general theme of my card this week is to find golfers who will most successfully avoid hazard-ridden tee balls. Byeong Hun An ranks 133rd in the field in accuracy off the tee and 102nd in good drives gained, which are two very misleading stats when playing a 7,100-yard Par 70. For golfers who have played at least 20 rounds on Par 70/71 courses less than 7,200 yards, Ben ranks fourth in strokes gained off the tee, behind Sungjae Im (duh), Cameron Davis (currently out of order), and Hayden Buckley (double duh!).
This ability to reign in the accuracy off the tee is supported by his past success at PGA National, finishing MC, T4, T36, and T5 the last four times he has teed it up here. Incredibly, he has gained an average of two-thirds of a shot off the tee in his 14 rounds, losing a total of only half a stroke in the two rounds he mysteriously lost off the tee. His approach play here has also been sensational, averaging a stroke per round with his irons.
If he can continue to repeat his ball-striking brilliance here, Benny An enters the week as the best player around the greens in my model, making him a tee-to-green machine. By now you must be wondering why he is 90-1. Well, he should probably be about 30-1 with his course history and T2G ability, but 200-1 with his putter that has lost over two strokes in four of his 14 rounds here. If Benny An Solo can harness the Chewbacca-BearTrap, returning to one of his favorite battlegrounds, hopefully, he steer his clunky Millenium falcon of a putter to victory!
Aaron Baddeley ($0.86 @ +17500 BetRivers enhanced odds tab)
You play Aaron Baddeley, aka Badds, at golf courses that are shorter than his Melbourne mullet. If you have read enough of these articles, you would know that The Model Maniac has a soft spot for Australians with long, messy hair and tidy short games. Badds is our short, coastal course specialist who we keep taking a shot at deep in the triple digits.
Baddeley is short off the tee, but has leaned on his scrambling ability to finish T7 at the Sony Open, T6 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and most recently T37 at Pebble Beach where he lost 5 strokes putting on the Poa greens. That poor putting should not be an issue here, as he ranks 13th in this field putting inside 15 feet on Bermuda greens, which have typically been much more friendly to his flat stick.
If conditions get crazy and scrambling becomes even more important, we have a 175-1 golfer that ranks inside the top-10 in the short game, who will hopefully let down his golden hair and let us climb it to a Honda Classic "W"!
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings
We are edging our way back to profitability, losing only $0.25 on our placing bets last week. The part that hurts the most, is not having the confidence to trust our model on the two bets we excluded from our card. Shane Lowry would have been awesome to have cashed in on at +400 T14, while Tom Hoge also finished T14 and would have cashed his T40 at +165. We are on the right track here though, but this week I trust the model a little less as the weaker field has a much smaller sample size with KFT graduates and regular tour members making up most of the field.
- Tom Kim +190 T20 -$5
- Tommy Fleetwood +130 T40 +$6.50
- Russell Henley +135 T40 -$5
- Matt Kuchar +165 T40 +$8.25
- Billy Horschel +165 T40 -$5
This week's bets (once the books wake up and post T40 bets, we may add a few of those to the card):
- Matt Kuchar +130 T20 $5
- Thomas Detry +165 T20 $5
- Ben Taylor +400 T20 $5
- Mark Hubabrd +150 T40 $5
- Aaron Baddeley +175 T40 $5
- Chris Stroud +275 T40 $5
Matt Kuchar and Thomas Detry have been playing great golf coming into the week. Detry has not missed a cut on the PGA Tour in his quartet of starts, while Kuchar is coming off one of his best ball-striking (BS) rounds of his season. Ben Taylor poses an intriguing Shane Lowry-like scenario where +400 a few starts ago would seem like extreme value, but with his best finish of his four-start west coast swing being a T58 at Genesis, we are banking on him bouncing back on Bermuda putting surfaces, which he leads the field on.
Mark Hubbard is adored by the model, as usual, but this week he actually has some good course history to fall back on too 15th, T46, and T11 in his last three starts. We play Badds at coast tracks and at +175 for a top-40 we are liking that bet a lot. Finally, Chris Stroud seems to have found something with his irons, and his lack of distance should be nullified here, as highlighted by his 28th ranked OTT on shorter courses.
Matchups
My favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, and you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. We are back to honing in on a golfer who the books love a lot more than we do.
We plugged in 20 matchups into the model and yet again, the books refuse to provide us with any bettable lines in the matchup market. These were the two closest bets that fell a few points shy of value. Sepp's recent form has been in the shadow of Schenk's consistency, while Horschel has seemingly lost his game at the same time Denny has found his putter again. We are out on these two matchups.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors, which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200, which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright, and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Top 10: Byeong Hun An $5 +500
We are still not betting the full $100 of our budget until we see a turnaround in results, which may start happening more often the more data we collect.
Last week Tommy Fleetwood finished T20 a few shots shy of our +850 T10 farewell fiver. We are swinging for the fence with this bet, so all it takes is one in every five to hit for us to break even. Benny An has two top-5 finishes here in four starts. Why not take a shot on him to do it again? Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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