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Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 13 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the 12th week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 12, we saw stat lines such as the Denver Broncos wide receivers combining for 10 targets, the Philadelphia Eagles tight ends combining for zero receiving yards, and the Tennessee Titans running backs combining for 240 rushing yards.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Atlanta Falcons Tight Ends
Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Falcons | 4.13 | 6.5 | 41.19 | 0.38 |
| Arthur Smith Prior (32 games) | 5.31 | 7.66 | 59.84 | 0.59 |
| Atlanta Falcons TEs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
For the second consecutive week, the Atlanta Falcons tight ends find themselves on this list after they combined for three receptions on seven targets for 33 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars. On the season this group has now totaled 75 receptions (6.82 per game) on 112 targets (10.18 per game) for 884 receiving yards (80.36 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.27 per game). Given how much Falcons head coach Arthur Smith likes to utilize the tight end position in his offense, it's likely that we see better performances than last Sunday that is more in line with the current 2021 season averages.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kyle Pitts, Hayden Hurst, Lee Smith, and Parker Hesse
Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receivers
Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Eagles | 10.38 | 18.31 | 130.13 | 0.88 |
| Nick Sirianni Prior (48 games) | 11.46 | 18.17 | 145.40 | 0.85 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (24 games) | 11.79 | 18.83 | 163.67 | 1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles WRs vs. New York Giants | 7 | 18 | 89 | 0 |
The Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver room combined for just seven receptions on 18 targets for 89 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns this past Sunday. On the season this group has now totaled 105 receptions (8.75 per game) on 172 targets (14.33 per game) for 1384 receiving yards (115.33 per game) and eight receiving touchdowns (0.67 per game). Based on what we saw from the Eagles wide receiver room last year and their coaches' previous success getting production out of the position, it appears that there's some potential room for growth from the Eagles wide receivers in the last five games of the season. Having said this, you probably still shouldn't be rostering any of the Eagles' receivers outside of DeVonta Smith as long as Jalen Hurts is the team's starting quarterback.
Fantasy players this impacts: DeVonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Greg Ward, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
Philadelphia Eagles Tight Ends
Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Eagles | 6.69 | 10.56 | 75.44 | 0.44 |
| Nick Sirianni Prior (48 games) | 5.73 | 8.88 | 64.10 | 0.73 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (24 games) | 4.88 | 7.67 | 54.25 | 0.5 |
| Philadelphia Eagles WRs vs. New York Giants | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
The Philadelphia Eagles' tight end room combined for just one reception on three targets for zero receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the New York Giants. After this game, this group has now totaled 56 receptions (4.67 per game) on 86 targets (7.17 per game) for 695 receiving yards (57.92 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.33 per game) on the season. Comparing these numbers to how head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen have utilized their tight ends at their previous stops, it is clear that there should be better days for the Eagles' tight ends ahead than what we saw last week.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll, and Tyree Jackson
San Francisco 49ers Tight Ends
Kyle Shanahan & Mike McDaniel
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 49ers | 6 | 8.56 | 71.63 | 0.44 |
| Kyle Shanahan Prior (208 games) | 5.07 | 7.61 | 63.13 | 0.33 |
| 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
The San Francisco 49ers' tight end room didn't play as well as they normally do as they combined for two receptions on three targets for 24 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 44 receptions (four per game) on 60 targets (5.45 per game) for 528 receiving yards (48 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (0.36 per game). Based on what we've typically seen from the tight end position in Kyle Shanahan's offense, it seems likely that this group improves on the season averages over the course of the rest of the season. If you are trying to buy George Kittle, now would be a good time.
Fantasy players this impacts: George Kittle
Los Angeles Rams Tight Ends
Sean McVay & Kevin O'Connell
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Rams | 5.56 | 7.88 | 61.94 | 0.38 |
| Sean McVay Prior (112 games) | 5.59 | 7.82 | 61.03 | 0.37 |
| Kevin O'Connell Prior (32 games) | 4.16 | 6.22 | 45.56 | 0.28 |
| Rams TEs vs. Green Bay Packers | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
The Los Angeles Rams tight end room had a disappointing game against the Green Bay Packers where they combined for one reception on five targets for three receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 41 receptions (3.73 per game) on 58 targets (5.27 per game) for 358 receiving yards (32.55 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (0.27 per game) on the season. This is currently looking like a down year for Sean McVay's tight end room, but there's a decent possibility that they turn it around in the last few games with how banged up the wide receiver corps is right now. There may be an investment opportunity with Tyler Higbee for the last six games of the season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Tyler Higbee
Denver Broncos Wide Receivers
Pat Shurmur
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Broncos | 10.5 | 19.56 | 151.69 | 0.88 |
| Pat Shurmur Prior (185 games) | 11.90 | 20.29 | 150.58 | 0.88 |
| Broncos WRs vs. Los Angeles Chargers | 6 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
The Denver Broncos wide receivers combined for just six receptions on 10 targets for 68 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers this past Sunday. After this game, this group has totaled 126 receptions (11.45 per game) on 190 targets (17.27 per game) for 1652 receiving yards (150.18 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (0.64 per game) on the season. Based on what we're used to seeing from offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's wide receiver room historically, it seems that there will be better games for this group than this past Sunday in the future.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Courtland Sutton, K.J. Hamler, and Kendall Hinton
Decline Ahead?
A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Tennessee Titans Running Backs
Todd Downing
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Titans | 28.94 | 149.31 | 1.13 | 2.13 | 3.31 | 12.56 | 0.13 |
| Todd Downing Prior (16 games) | 20 | 82.44 | 0.63 | 5.06 | 7 | 37.75 | 0.13 |
| Titans RBs vs. New England Patriots | 31 | 240 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
In a loss to the New England Patriots, the Tennessee Titans running back room combined for 31 carries, 240 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, two receptions, three targets, five receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has totaled 329 carries (27.42 per game), 1458 rushing yards (121.5 per game), 12 rushing touchdowns (one per game), 62 receptions (5.17 per game), 75 targets (6.25 per game), 503 receiving yards (42.92 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.08 per game). Based on the data, it seems unlikely that the Titans running backs have another game like this past Sunday - especially with Derrick Henry out. If you are looking to sell high on Dontrell Hilliard or D'Onta Foreman, now would be a good time.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dontrell Hilliard, D'Onta Foreman, Jeremy McNichols, Darrynton Evans, and Derrick Henry
Cincinnati Bengals Running Backs
Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Bengals | 20.75 | 81.38 | 0.56 | 5.25 | 6.38 | 36.81 | 0.25 |
| Zac Taylor Prior (37 games) | 20.92 | 81.24 | 0.49 | 4.59 | 5.86 | 34.57 | 0.19 |
| Brian Callahan Prior (32 games) | 20.72 | 81.53 | 0.44 | 4.66 | 5.94 | 34.69 | 0.22 |
| Bengals RBs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 36 | 191 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
The Cincinnati Bengals running back room combined for 36 carries, 191 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, six receptions, six targets, 15 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns in the victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers this past Sunday. On the season this group has now totaled 264 carries (24 per game), 1143 rushing yards (103.91 per game), 12 rushing touchdowns (1.09 per game), 53 receptions (4.82 per game), 60 targets (5.45 per game), 459 receiving yards (41.73 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.36 per game). Based on Zac Taylor & Brian Callahan's previous success and usage with the running back position, it seems this group is running on the higher side of what we should expect.
Fantasy players this impacts: Joe Mixon, Chris Evans, and Samaje Perine
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