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Starting pitchers to add and stream in Week 17 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Michael Grennell analyzes the top SP streamers to pick up off waivers.
The All-Star festivities are over. Pete Alonso retained his Home Run Derby title, and the American League continued its All-Star game dominance. Now it's time to get back into the swing of things and look at the two-start pitchers to target this week.
But before we get there, we'll close out the previous two weeks' columns. Going back to Week 14, there wasn't really a stand-out performance on the list, but Nick Pivetta finished 1-0 with 15 strikeouts, albeit with a 4.76 ERA. And then in Week 15's column, Jon Gray was the winner as he went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 15 strikeouts, although Wily Peralta looked sharp as well, going 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA and eight strikeouts.
Baseball is back and it's time to get locked in for the second half. Here's your Week 17 two-start pitcher streaming options.
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Week 17 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Tarik Skubal, DET - 44% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs TEX, @ KCR
After a rough start to the season, Skubal has come into his own as a solid fantasy starter. Over 10 starts in May and June, Skubal went 4-3 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.239 WHIP and 32.5 percent strikeout rate over 55 2/3 innings of work. However he struggled a bit in his last two starts before the All-Star break, posting a 6.55 ERA and 1.455 WHIP over 11 innings of work.
He'll look to bounce back in Week 17, as he starts things off at home against the Rangers. Texas has been struggling at the plate over their last 10 games, slashing .214/.286/.378 while averaging 3.8 runs per game. The Rangers will get the slight benefit in the fact they are hitting better against left-handed pitching (.246/.308/.388) than against right-handed pitching (.299/.382/.682), but they are hitting slightly worse on the road (.230/.300/.381) than at home (.235/.304/.387). This will also likely work to Skubal's benefit, as he has done significantly better pitching in Detroit this year (3.72 ERA, 1.311 WHIP) than on the road (5.45 ERA, 1.485 WHIP).
Afterwards, he'll close out the week on the road in Kansas City, where he'll face a Royals squad that has been hitting fairly well over their last 10 games, slashing .251/.310/.408 while averaging 4.6 runs per game. They're also hitting far better against left-handed pitching (.257/.311/.412) than right-handed pitching (.240/.304/.383) and they're hitting significantly better at home (.263/.327/.418) than on the road (.227/.286/.363). And then add on the fact Skubal has done worse on the road than at home, it has the makings of a rough outing for him. That being said, he pitched well in his last start at Kauffman Stadium, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out seven in six innings of work to earn the win on June 16.
Skubal looks to have one good matchup this week with Texas, while his outing against Kansas City appears to be a coin toss as to whether he'll put up good numbers or not. I like that matchup with the Rangers though, and if he can put together a performance against the Royals similar to his last start against them, he should have a lot of value as a streamer this week. And assuming he has a good performance this week, managers should consider rostering him full time.
Ross Stripling, TOR - 26% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs BOS, @ NYM
Much like with Skubal, Stripling also got off to a rough start this season, posting a 1-3 record and 5.11 ERA over his first eight games. But slowly things have started to fall into place for Stripling, and while he's just 1-2 over his last five starts, he has also posted a 3.33 ERA and 26.4 percent strikeout rate in that span. He struggled in his last start prior to the All-Star break by allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work against Tampa Bay, but he'll look to bounce back from that outing as he opens up the second half against Boston.
He should have a solid matchup with the Red Sox to start off Week 17, as they have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games while slashing .221/.297/.375 and averaging 4.3 runs per game in that span. The Red Sox are hitting slightly worse against right-handers (.256) than against lefties (.261), but their .443 slugging percentage against right-handers is 13 points higher than their mark against left-handers. But Boston is hitting significantly worse on the road (.241/.303/.420) than at home (.275/.339/.458), and that plays into Stripling's favor as he's done far better at home (3.83 ERA, 1.181 WHIP) than on the road (5.01 ERA, 1.299 WHIP).
Then he'll close out the week by facing off with the Mets, who are slashing .237/.334/.399 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over their last 10 games. They've also just lost their offensive sparkplug in Francisco Lindor (oblique) for the foreseeable future due to an oblique strain. On top of that, the Mets are hitting worse against right-handers (.227/.307/.366) than left-handers (.235/.318/.381). Stripling's home-road splits could come into play here though, as the Mets have put up nearly identical numbers at home (.227/.320/.359) and on the road (.231/.302/.379). So it might be a risky play going with Stripling while he's on the road.
This is a similar situation to Skubal, where Stripling has one good matchup and one potentially poor matchup. I like that matchup with Boston and think there's some solid value to be found there. However that Mets outing could end up blowing up in managers' faces. Between Skubal and Stripling, Skubal has the better upside this week. Stripling should still be solid though, and if he doesn't suffer another poor road performance he could be a nice play in most formats.
Week 17 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Dane Dunning, TEX - 12% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ DET, @ HOU
Unlike with Skubal and Stripling, Dunning got off to a good start this season but then went through a rough patch in late May through early June. Over his last six starts though, things have picked up as he's posted a 3.33 ERA and 25.6 percent strikeout rate over 27 innings of work. He'll kick off the second half against the Tigers, who have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games while slashing .249/.325/.407 and averaging 5.4 runs per game. They've also averaged 10.9 strikeouts per game in that span, and have the worst strikeout rate in the majors at 27.2 percent. After Detroit he'll head out to Houston, where the Astros have struggled a bit at the plate recently, slashing .215/.286/.361 and averaging 4.2 runs per game over their last 10 games. Dunning will also benefit from the fact Houston is hitting worse against right-handers (.262/.341/.437) than against left-handers (.282/.351/.440), and they're also hitting worse at home (.259/.339/.425) than on the road (.279/.349/.452).
Based on how they've performed this year, one would think Detroit would be an easier matchup for Dunning than Houston. However, it's looking like it could be the opposite case in Week 17. The biggest concern really is that Dunning has only pitched at least five innings in a game four times out of his last 10 starts. That seems to be more of a workload issue than performance issue though, as it appears the Rangers are holding him to a rough limit of about 80 pitches. So there's a chance he may miss out on a chance at earning a win this week, but his other numbers should make him a solid play in deeper formats.
Vladimir Gutierrez, CIN - 12% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs NYM, vs STL
Don't let the 4.29 ERA fool you, Gutierrez has been quite good in his debut season with the Reds. A pair of rough starts against the Padres have inflated his numbers, but outside of those two outings, Gutierrez owns a 2.85 ERA and 1.220 WHIP over 41 innings. He'll kick off the week against the Mets, where he'll benefit from the same righty-lefty splits that we saw Stripling will have. Gutierrez could face some struggles in that outing though, as he's pitched worse at home (5.71 ERA, 1.500 WHIP) than on the road (3.55 ERA, 1.273 WHIP). In his second start of the week, he'll face the Cardinals for the second time this season after limiting them to two runs over five innings to earn his first career win on June 3. Once again he'll benefit from the Cardinals hitting worse against right-handers (.230/.300/.377) than against left-handers (.234/.313/.391), and this time he'll benefit from the face St. Louis is hitting far worse on the road (.219/.293/.381) than at home (.245/.314/.378).
Gutierrez isn't going to provide much strikeout value, as he only has a 16.5 percent strikeout rate on the year. But he should be able to provide a boost to ERA and WHIP, and he should be in line for at least one win, if not two. He'll be a great streamer to pair up with any other option in this column.
Alec Mills, CHC - 3% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ STL, vs ARI
Mills started off the year pitching primarily out of the bullpen and did not look particularly impressive, posting a 6.08 ERA and 1.521 WHIP over his first 23 2/3 innings of work. However, he's turned things around since joining the Cubs' rotation full time, as he's gone 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.297 WHIP and 24.3 percent strikeout rate over his last five starts. Mills will open the week at St. Louis, and while he'll have the same righty-lefty splits that Gutierrez will benefit from, Mills will have the challenge of pitching at Busch Stadium where the Cardinals are having far better luck at the plate. After that start though, he'll get a nice matchup with an abysmal Diamondbacks offense that is slashing .225/.302/.357 and averaging 3.5 runs per game over their last 10 games. Arizona is also hitting far worse against right-handed pitching (.226/.300/.355) than against left-handed pitching (.245/.322/.416), giving Mills yet another advantage.
I see Mills as being a high-ceiling, low-floor option this week. If things go well in St. Louis, he could be the top option in this week's column. But if he struggles against the Cardinals, any good numbers he puts up against Arizona might not be enough to salvage his week. He'll have the biggest impact in 14-team and deeper leagues, but he's still a solid option to stream in 10-team leagues. Like with Gutierrez, pair Mills up in your lineup with any of the other guys on this list to make an impact on your team's performance.
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