RADIO
For fantasy football GMs, draft season is gearing up. Preparing for what is waiting for us in our virtual war rooms is a key part of the process, and the first thing to know is the language our leagues will speak to us in.
The first step is to know if you're going to battle your foes in Standard or PPR (Point-Per-Reception) scoring systems. The difference between those leagues comes down to a simple matter of awarding one extra point to players that catch a pass. Standard scoring was a staple in the early days of fantasy football, but PPR has become the most played system lately.
With both Standard and PPR-scoring systems in mind, it's time to discover which players are surefire bets in one system but potential duds in the other. Today, I'm highlighting some wide receivers who are primed to become studs in PPR-format leagues but not so much when used in Standard ones.
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PPR Wide Receivers
Today, I'm highlighting some wide receivers who are primed to become studs in PPR-format leagues but not so much when used in Standard leagues.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are finally moving on from good-not-great QB Jared Goff and trusting über-veteran QB Matthew Stafford for the upcoming season. That, to my eyes, is an improvement. And that improvement will also boost the receiving corps and its upside, including that of Robert Woods. Don't get that wrong, though, as Woods has already been a WR1/WR2 in his last three seasons and only finished WR32 in 2017 after missing four games entirely.
Woods' profile as a pass-catcher, though, has changed a little bit each of the three last seasons, moving toward more of a high-volume, low-outcome type of guy. His targets have stayed between 129 and 139 for three straight years, but his receiving yards have gone down from 1,219 to 1,134 and finally 936. Not a steep "decline," but definitely moving down in terms of counting stats.
The good thing still going for Woods, though, is that he's been able to keep up his Catch Rate (career-high 69.8% last year) while catching at least 86 passes in three consecutive seasons. Woods has dropped his YPR a couple of yards going from one year to the next one starting in 2018, but he is still catching everything that goes his way. He posted the second-best RZ Catch Rate among 500+ snap WRs (90.9%), caught 63.2% of his contested targets, and finished inside the 78th percentile in Routes Run/G.
Josh Reynolds is not in LA anymore with deep-threat DeSean Jackson getting in for him. Woods will keep a low aDOT in this offense (sixth percentile last season at just 7.1 yards) with huge reception numbers that will boost his value in PPR formats.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers
I am basing this series of columns about PPR/Standard fades and targets mostly on PFF projections to find glaring differences in expected fantasy points from this or that player. There is no player other than JuJu Smith-Schuster with a projection to finish more separated--14 positions--in both formats, as PFF has him projected to finish WR39 in PPR leagues but only WR53 in Standard formats. Uh oh, the difference.
This means we'd be drafting either a weekly WR3/WR4/FLEX player worth a mid-high pick in PPR leagues, but a borderline viable FLEX in STD competitions. That's insane. That's also JuJu (and Pittsburgh by extension) for you these days. Because it is not that JSS is a bad player or anything like that, but everything has aligned for him to be a much more valuable fantasy player in point-per-reception formats.
JuJu was used off the slot 82.2 percent of the time he was on the field (94th percentile), and his aDOT of 5.7 yards was the lowest of all WRs with at least 400 snaps played--only him and Greg Ward finished below a 6.0-yard mark! That is why he could only finish with a first-percentile (ugh) 3.4 Completed AY/Target, killing his upside in standard formats. Other than that, though, JuJu was fantastic, catching almost 79% of his RZ targets, scoring touchdowns at a nice pace (every 14.2 targets), and getting to run the most runs per game (39.3) among the same group of WRs while getting the sixth-highest number of RZ targets per game on top of that.
The volume is there but the opportunities are not the most optimal to watch JuJu rack up yards. That's why you have to bet on him catching the rock in PPR formats and then just hope he pulls off some trick to gain some extra yards--softening the blow on those rostering him in standard leagues.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers, believe it or not, are just two years removed from their last Super Bowl appearance, which they lost to the mighty Chiefs. Last season, though, they could do nothing to escape the bottom of the NFC West division, finishing last with a paltry 6-10 record... and the reward of drafting rookie-QB Trey Lance. Not bad, I guess.
Other than adding a still-to-get-there QB1 to the fold, the 49ers did pretty much nothing this offseason. Samuel therefore finds himself in a prime position to have a good year if only because of the lack of options available in this receiving corps. His 2020 campaign was cut way short, playing only seven games, but his FPPG stayed kind of up at 11.5 after posting a 12.6 mark one year before as a rookie.
Samuel's bread and butter is his masterful pass-catching ability, having back-to-back seasons above 70% in Catch Rate and hauling in a fantastic 75% (!) of his targets last year. With a gimmicky set of plays going his way, and his average usage through the season, Deebo finished 2020 with a smidge 2.6-yard aDOT that clearly trailed every living WR (134th and last among wideouts with 200+ snaps played).
Even then, though, Samuel never dropped a Red Zone look, caught 100% of his contested targets, only needed to run 3.8 Routes b/w Targets (10th-fewest), and posted reasonably high target and receptions per game numbers (both in the 62nd+ percentile). He's got the second-highest knock-on projections from PPR to STD leagues, only topped by JuJu's 14-position hit, as Deebo is expected to finish WR42 in PPR formats but only WR58 (-12) in standard leagues.
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