RADIO
We're back in the swing of things, literally, with a closer look at hitters who are making quality contact and those who aren't. This week, our Statcast focus is Whiff Rate entering Week 4 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
Whiffs are simply calculated as the number of swings and misses divided by the total number of swings. There are many terms used interchangeably that can confuse the non-sabermetrically inclined, such as Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%) on Fangraphs, Swing and Miss%, and others. For our purposes, just know that we are looking at how often a batter attempts to make contact and fails to do so.
When you're done here, check out the pitching side of our Statcast analysis, this week looking at Exit Velocity. *All Statcast metrics are current as of April 19, 2021 and taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.
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Whiff Rate Leaders
Travis Shaw, Milwaukee Brewers
18.7% Whiff Rate (87th percentile)
It turns out 2020 was not the bounce-back season we were hoping to see out of Shaw but 2021 may be. In his return to Milwaukee, Shaw has gotten his batting average to its highest point since 2017. While .260 is nothing to tweet about, it'll play for fantasy purposes if he's leaving the yard and driving in runs. So far so good on that front, as he's got three HR and 13 RBI in the first 14 games.
Once he passed his prime age of 27, it looked like we were stuck with the worst version of Shaw where he was whiffing at a 29% rate as he did in 2019 and 2020. To some extent, Statcast may be to blame for this. We often hear tales of hitters tweaking their batting stance to improve performance. In this case, Shaw attempted to do just that but managed to make things worse. He's cut down significantly on his whiff rate, dropping it 10.6 points from 2020 and now ranking in the top 40 in the category along with the likes of Nolan Arenado.
Shaw is playing every day and will hold down third base for the foreseeable future. The Brewers are a mess right now with several batters on the IL but that just keeps Shaw in the third spot of the lineup where he can swing freely and keep driving in runs, assuming Keston Hiura stops swinging and missing.
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
19% Whiff Rate (85th percentile)
This may be puzzling, seeing as how Albies has been one of the more disappointing early-round picks among all hitters. Albies is batting just .157 on the young season and is yet to steal a base, leaving fantasy managers wanting for much more. It's not a matter of declining plate discipline, though. His 19% whiff rate is at a career-low and he's only struck out 16.4% of the time. That's actually in line with his previous norm, so 2020 starts to appear as the outlier with its 24.2% K%.
The real shocker is that Albies is near the top of the xBA leaderboard. That's right, according to Statcast he has been expected to hit .306 so far, leaving a 149-point gap in performance. He's hitting the ball harder and striking out less, so he's simply been unlucky as his .146 BABIP can attest to. Anyone disgruntled with Albies should hold on firmly.
Raimel Tapia, Colorado Rockies
11.1% Whiff Rate (97th percentile)
Tapia is admittedly not a slugger compared to the others on this list but he's noteworthy nonetheless. Tapia is known more for his speed and contact-inducing swing but he hasn't quite become fantasy relevant. This could be the year, as he ranks among the leaders in K% (12.3%) and has cut down on his whiff rate by 7.6 points. Tapia overachieved quite a bit on last year's .321 batting average after posting a .251 xBA so there was regression coming. He's upped the xBA to .273 so far, which means we could start seeing improvement, especially if he gets to running more often. Sam Chinitz recently broke down Tapia as a strong OF waiver wire option based on his stance adjustment that could also lead to continued power gains.
Tapia was one of my favorite discount draft targets at outfield and remains a strong consideration as a waiver wire add since he's only 26% rostered in Yahoo leagues. As the leadoff batter in Colorado, he should cross the plate 70-80 times along with double-digit steals and an average close to .300.
Whiff Rate Strugglers
Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
51.2% Whiff Rate (1st percentile)
Thus far, Baez has managed to both uplift and beat down teams in roto leagues. He is second in the majors with five steals, which is a pleasant surprise after he stole just three all of last season in 59 games. He also has four homers in 12 RBI, ranking near the top in those categories. But it comes with a .214 batting average and a god-awful 45% K% that makes him more of a liability in points leagues.
His plate discipline issues are nothing new, rather they are a continuation of a years-long trend. Baez has seen his whiff rate increase each year since 2018, with a more pronounced jump of 13.4% since last season. Back in 2016, he was whiffing at a 28.4% clip and he's getting close to doubling that figure. He's never been a fan of taking a free pass but somehow has managed to reduce his walk rate to 1.7% this season. If Baez can muster a batting average at least close to .250, he'll be a strong option for roto teams. If he suddenly stops running, however, the negative may start to outweigh the positives. This is a strong "sell-high" candidate.
Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds
41.2% Whiff Rate (4th percentile)
Much like Baez, the newly-minted shortstop in Cincy has been missing the ball more as the years have passed. In 2017, Suarez was whiffing at a 24.4% rate but that number keeps creeping up. The consensus opinion is that learning a new defensive position is distracting him at the batter's box, but the K's have been piling up more frequently even before the change. What's concerning is that he is actually chasing less outside the zone, so most of his swings and misses are coming in the zone.
Not surprisingly, Suarez's xBA has been on a steady decline too. Back in 2018, he held a strong .275 xBA along with an elite .514 xSLG and .454 xwoBACON. After 63 plate appearances in 2021, he has a .164 xBA, .358 xSLG, and .352 xwoBACON. He should bounce back in the power department so it's not quite time to abandon ship but be warned that he may no longer be an elite fantasy producer across the board and a batting average sink may be in store.
Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics
40% Whiff Rate (5th percentile)
Last week, we examined the leaders in Max Exit Velocity to get an idea of who is hitting the ball particularly hard early on since it can be an indicator of increased power. Murphy wasn't individually evaluated in the piece but he does appear on the leaderboard, ranking in the top 10 percentile. Sadly, the good news ends there as he is near the bottom in xBA with a .177 mark and is whiffing at a rate 15% higher than last season.
Murphy was largely viewed as a great value pick at the catcher position because he has 20-HR upside and little competition for at-bats, nearly guaranteeing that he would be among the top-10 in counting stats as long as he stayed healthy. After 40 plate appearances, he's produced one run, one homer, five RBI, and a .161 average. There could be unrealized health-related issues at play, though. Murphy notably suffered a collapsed lung this offseason that required emergency surgery. He then got struck on the wrist with a pitch on Opening Day. While he hasn't hit the IL and is said to be "healthy," the delayed start to spring and after-effects of the wrist contusion could be affecting his swing. It's advised to remain patient with Murphy, especially since his first homer was literally yesterday.
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