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We've come into the New Year and with it into new opportunities to best our friends/rivals at trades in fantasy basketball.
Naturally, players who are performing well are sought after commodities. And if an opponent of yours is willing to pay more than a fair price for one of your overachievers, well, who are you to deny him of such an idea? On the other hand, if a valuable guy is not up to his standards lately, and his fantasy GM is losing his patience with him, why not try to swoop in and take him off his hands for pennies on the dollar?
Here are our Sell High and Buy Low candidates for Week 3 of the NBA season, right here at RotoBaller.
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Are You for Real, Julius Randle?
Randle is finally on a team where he can show his real potential. And he has been doing just that this season under coach Tom Thibodeau with averages of 23.1 points with 1.4 threes on 48.5% from the field and 77.8% from the charity stripe, 12.0 boards, 7.4 dimes, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, and 4.9 turnovers in almost 39 minutes a night. This is good enough for top-30 value, and he is leading the league in playing time.
Furthermore, the Knicks are doing quite well, unexpectedly so, with a 5-3 start.
If we disregard stocks and turnovers, the rest of the stats are really off the charts. For a guy who could have been had in the seventh round of most drafts, fantasy managers who put their faith in him have really struck gold!
But Julius has been putting quite good numbers for years now, so why should his production drop off?
Well, he has been good, true, but he has never been THIS good! Here are my thoughts.
Dime a dozen. The first stat that pops out are the assists. He has never averaged more than 3.6 over the course of a season (back in 2016-17) and is now dishing out 7.4 passes that lead to buckets a night. He is tied for the #7 spot in the assists column so far. That's insane...
Competition. New York is signing free agent Taj Gibson. Coach Thibs is reuniting with one of his favorite players and it is difficult to imagine Gibson not having any impact on Randle's insane playing time. Furthermore, Obi Toppin is making some progress in his recovery from injury, and even though Thibodeau is notorious for not playing rookies, he will most probably carve out some sort of role for the 8th pick in the 2020 draft. All this should keep Randle under 35 minutes a night (like this is low right?).
Efficiency under fatigue. For argument's sake, let's say that Randle keeps getting close to 40 minutes a night even with Taj and Obi in the rotation. Is it realistic that a guy whose career average from the free-throw line is 72.5% keeps hitting almost 78% in a role that is far more demanding and tiring than he has ever had in his life? Most likely not. This can also be said for his FG%, but he has been better at shooting from the field throughout his career, so there shouldn't be as big a drop as in his FT% as the season progresses.
If you believe Randle can make it through all these storms, or you just can't get proper value back for him, there is nothing wrong in keeping him. But if you can find a suitable trade partner to pay full price at his current form, there are potential benefits to this move.
If someone is pissed off at Donovan Mitchell for his lack of form, Russell Westbrook for missing a few games, or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for sharing the ball with his "less talented" teammates, they might just bite the bait that is Julius Randle. Of course, if Randle still fits your team better, I repeat, it is not the worst idea to keep him.
Baller Move: Sell high
Time to Panic on Draymond Green?
If you drafted Draymond Green I hope you armed yourself with patience (and you're punting some categories).
He is really an acquired taste, and so far this season his managers are not happy with their decision during the (probably sixth or seventh round of the) fantasy draft. Draymond has missed the first four games and has been underperforming in the four games he has played so far this season with averages of 2.5 PTS, 0.3 3PM, 18.2 FG%, 71.4 FT%, 4.5 REB, 5.8 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.3 BLK, and 1.5 TO in 24 minutes per game.
The 2.5 points is NOT a typo.
Moreover, Green is being listed as a game-time decision to play against the Clippers on Jan 8 so he might miss even more games in the near future.
So why try to trade for Green at all?
He is one of the most unique players in the NBA today. The first player ever to record a triple-double without points (12 rebounds, 10 assists, 10 steals, and five blocks as well by the way) is someone who will always put fear in your opponent if he sees him in your lineup and the matchup is close in rebounds, assists, steals or even blocks.
He is only good for certain builds, but he can be pure gold if you're punting one or more of the following categories: FG%, FT%, PTS.
If this is the case, and his current manager is getting weary of Green's shenanigans, you could be able to obtain his services for your fantasy team quite cheap. A guy you picked up at the end of the draft (or even from the waivers) could do the trick, especially if he is in decent form. Eric Gordon, Nicolas Batum and Justin Holiday all look better than Dray at the moment, but in the long term, if he can avoid injuries, Green should get back to his fantasy-monster ways.
Baller Move: Hold or buy low
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