January 19, 2016

Josh Leonard takes a look at his 2016 fantasy baseball dynasty / keeper rankings for the Top 10 MLB first base (1B) targets for the 2016 season.

If you are lucky enough to own either of the top two first basemen, consider yourself very fortunate. Paul Goldschmidt is arguably the best baseball player in the world, and Anthony Rizzo isn’t far behind. 

Overall, there is plenty of talent available at 1B and the position is deep.  First base is a power bat position, but the elite first baseman also steal bases.

After the top two, there isn’t much long term upside. Most are talented veterans who will produce as long as they stay healthy. There isn’t a ton of prospect buzz at first base, but the two prospects of note are Pittsburgh’s switch-hitting Josh Bell who is transitioning from outfield and power bat Matt Olson of the Oakland A’s. Neither cracks the top 10 in this crowded field of adults.

Top 10 Dynasty First Basemen For 2016

Make sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, where you will find the rest of my dynasty rankings. You'll also find lots more RotoBaller staff ranking for all positions, tiered rankings, MLB prospect rankings for 2016, and much more. Okay, let's get to it.

1. Paul Goldschmidt, 28

“America’s First Baseman” is the most recent major leaguer to have a season with over 30 HR/20 SB/.320 BA since Mike Trout, Ryan Braun and Andrew McCutchen all did it in 2012. Goldschmidt outperformed Rizzo in 2015. He is the obvious preseason pick for National League MVP and therefore remains the top fantasy 1B.

Goldschmidt is one of the best hitters on the planet entering his age 28 season. Despite this, Steamer is projecting a drop in HR, RBI, SB and BA (basically every fantasy stat category). I don't agree with their projections, so we shall see how that plays out. Goldy is a top two overall pick. While every ESPN writer gives Bryce Harper a tongue bath, don't fall for the hype. PG will outperform Harper in 2016. Not so bold Prediction.

2. Anthony Rizzo, 26

Everyone saw Rizzo go nuts in 2015 with his 34/91/101/17 season. With his elite level batting eye and patience, he will produce elite numbers, as evidenced by his low 15% strikeout percentage, .384 wOBA, and very respectable 11% walk percentage. In a loaded Cubs lineup, he should logically have an increase RBI opportunities. Rizzo’s .899 OPS was good for top 12 in baseball. Overall, he finished the season ranked the 14th best bat (Yahoo ranks).

3. Jose Abreu, 29

Entering his age 29 season, Steamer projects an increase in production across the board for “El Canon.” Abreu batted .290/.347/.502 with 30/88/101 in 2015 resulting in the eighth ranked 1B in Yahoo leagues. It wasn’t exactly a disappointing season for Abreu, but he was unable to improve on his rookie campaign. Abreu also whiffed more often in 2016. With Todd Frazier in the lineup, Abreu will have some protection and may see more fastballs.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 32

Cabrera will finish the year in the top 15 overall. I believe this.  

Injuries and a dip in production are a risk as Cabrera enters the twilight of his career. I still consider Miggy to be the best pure hitter in all of baseball. In dynasty leagues, Cabrera ownership now has diminishing returns. Cabrera batted .338 on the year but had his lowest HR total (18) since his rookie campaign. Pray that he can stay healthy. For the sake of comparison, Victor Martinez hit 35 HR when he was 35.

5. Chris Davis, 29

The newly re-signed basher got back into form with a massive 47/100/117 campaign in 2015. Davis led the league in HR and was third in RBI.  Unsurprisingly, he also led the league with a 31% strikeout rate. Over the last three seasons, nobody has more RBI and HR. A return to the Orioles is great for his fantasy value. Camden Yards is one of the premier ball parks for left-handed power bats.

6. Joey Votto, 32

Votto tied Goldy in 2015 with a 7.4 WAR. He was back to 2011 form and owners that stuck with him finally got rewarded. Who knows if he can manage another fully healthy season. It seems like when he is healthy for the majority of the season, he will hit close to 30 HR with a ton of runs and RBI.

7. Eric Hosmer, 26

Hosmer had a career year in 2015 with highs in runs and RBI’s. At 26 years old, Hosmer is a core member of the World Champion Kansas City Royals. Surprising power ranked Hosmer fourth for the golden sledgehammer with an average home run distance of 414.7. To give an idea of his value, my dad traded two first round picks for Hosmer in our 12 team 6 keeper dynasty league.

8. Edwin Encarnacion, 32

Encarnacion will be 33 when the season starts. He is just a fantastic source of home runs and general run production. Over the last four seasons E5 has at least 34 HR and 98 RBI. So long as he stays healthy, he is basically a lock for those numbers again.  

9. Freddie Freeman, 26

In 2012 and 2013 Freeman hit over 22 HR with 92 RBI. Then he proceeded to struggle.  Over the next two years, he failed to reach 20 HR or 80 RBI. What is even more troubling is there are no significant outliers in his advanced metrics to indicate a reason for his struggles other than injury. A glass-is-half-full assessment would involve a return to form with over 20 HR and 80 RBI if Freeman can stay healthy for the year. He is a buy low candidate.

10. Prince Fielder, 31

I have to admit Fielder played better than I anticipated. That doesn't matter, I still would never own him. Despite the weight and injury risk, he is worthy of a keep in a deeper dynasty leagues because of his power potential.

Other

It should also be noted that Hanley Ramirez will be taking reps at 1B during Spring Training. Regardless, after watching his performance for the Red Sox in 2015, I’m not buying. He doesn’t crack the top 10 either way. He takes too many days off and overall just lacks hustle. I really hope new Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski can unload him without having to pay too much of his salary.

How about this real life trade offer: Red Sox package Ramirez and half his salary, Eduardo Rodriguez and Blake Swihart to the White Sox for Chris Sale?

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]