Fantasy Baseball Buy-Lows? Unlucky Star Players (Week 16)

July 15, 2026

Joey's fantasy baseball buy-lows, breakouts, trade candidates to target for Week 16 in 2026. These unlucky players are underperforming early for fantasy baseball.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another edition of Buy-Low Candidates for Week 16 of the fantasy baseball season. Every week of the fantasy baseball season, we look at struggling star players who are top buy-low candidates.

This week, we will look at the five biggest buy-low candidates during the All-Star break. These players haven't been consistent fantasy options over the last few weeks, but that should change in the second half. This list will include one superstar currently on the injured list, three hitters who could get hot shortly after the All-Star break, and a pitcher due for some positive regression.

Let's dive into the five best buy-low candidates right now.

Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros

It has no doubt been an injury-riddled season for Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena. He fractured the tip of his right ring finger in an exhibition game before the World Baseball Classic, suffered a calf strain in mid April that forced him to miss one month, and suffered a calf strain just a few weeks ago that cost him a little over a week.

These injuries haven't let Pena get into a groove at the plate this season. He's batting .287 with six home runs, nine doubles, 22 RBI, and eight stolen bases across 51 games. These numbers are obviously a step down from his 2025 All-Star campaign, when he hit .304 with 17 home runs, 30 doubles, 62 RBI, and 20 stolen bases in 125 games.

However, fantasy managers can expect Pena to be a better fantasy option in the second half. He was starting to heat up before his recent calf injury, slashing .325/.396/.517 with six home runs, five doubles, 20 RBI, and seven stolen bases across 33 games from May 24 to June 28. His ability to contribute solid home run, batting average, and stolen base numbers make him an appealing trade target for Week 16.

Considering Pena just recently returning from his calf injury before the All-Star break, now is the perfect time to trade for him. He currently owns a strong 21.6% pull air rate, a 96th percentile expected batting average (.294), a 70th percentile xwOBA (.342), and a 92nd percentile sprint speed (29.1 ft/sec).

Alex Bregman, 3B, Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman has had a miserable start to the season. He entered the All-Star break slashing just .241/.336/.359 with nine home runs, 15 doubles, 41 RBI, and two stolen bases across 94 games. With a career-low .696 OPS in his first season with the Cubs, Bregman has not lived up to his contract so far.

But the 32-year-old could finally be turning a corner. He hit back-to-back home runs in the final two games before the All-Star break and could carry that momentum into the second half. Bregman still has an elite 32.4% squared-up rate (90th percentile), and his 23% pull air rate is right around his career average (23.5%).

ALEX BREGMAN HOMER ALEX BREGMAN HOMER pic.twitter.com/6r6Yi68la5

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 12, 2026

Bregman has also notoriously been a better hitter in the second half throughout his career. He has a .260 batting average with 113 home runs (0.15 HRs/game) and 406 RBI (0.54 RBI/game) across 744 games in the first half, compared to a .286 batting average with 99 home runs (0.18 HRs/game) and 338 RBI (0.63 RBI/game) across 533 games in the second half.

The Cubs veteran could really heat up down the stretch, making him a must-target in trade talks right now.

Bryan Woo, SP, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo hasn't been that usual fantasy ace. Woo entered the 2026 season with back-to-back strong seasons on the mound. He finished with a 2.89 ERA and 101 strikeouts across 121 1/3 innings pitched in 2024 and had a 2.94 ERA and 198 strikeouts across 186 2/3 innings pitched in 2025.

This year, though, has been a different story for the Mariners right-hander. The 26-year-old has a career-worst 4.23 ERA and 102 strikeouts across 104 1/3 innings pitched. Woo has also been even worse on the mound recently, as he has a whopping 5.16 ERA and a 24.6% strikeout rate over his last eight starts since May 24.

Bryan Woo extends his scoreless innings streak at T-Mobile Park to 31 IP 🔱

A @Mariners single-season record at the ballpark! pic.twitter.com/wSUKlqvlm5

— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2026

Despite how poorly Woo has pitched lately, he's actually due for some positive regression in the second half. His expected ERA (3.51) is 72 points lower than his actual ERA (4.23), and he ranks in the upper half of the league in expected batting average against (.240), chase rate (35%), walk rate (4.7%), barrel rate (7%), and strikeout rate (24.1%).

Seeing a 72-point difference between his expected ERA and actual ERA suggests that Woo has gotten a bit unlucky on the mound this year. That should eventually even out in the second half. His FIP (3.05) and expected FIP (3.73) also rank much lower than his actual ERA. That all points to the former All-Star being a much more consistent fantasy pitcher after the All-Star break.

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez has not performed like his usual self for most of the last month. He is only slashing .248/.330/.327 with two home runs, two doubles, 10 RBI, and seven stolen bases in his last 27 games since June 1 and is currently on the 7-day injured list due to a concussion that he suffered back on July 2.

Although Rodriguez hasn't been that elite fantasy outfielder recently, fantasy managers should be doing all they can to acquire one of the best second-half hitters in baseball. The three-time All-Star always seems to put up his best numbers from July through September. He hit .316 with 12 home runs and 38 RBI in his last 52 games in 2024 and hit .296 with 18 home runs and 44 RBI in his last 60 games last season.

The Mariners outfielder has a career slash line of .297/.351/.552 in the second half, compared to a .260/.320/.419 slash line in the first half. It's hard not to imagine another big-time second-half coming from Rodriguez, considering he has a .350 xwOBA, .274 expected batting average, .474 expected slugging, 90.2 mph average exit velocity, 44.4% hard-hit rate, 76.5 mph bat peed, and a 17.3% pull air rate.

Rodriguez should be back from the 7-day concussion list once the second half begins on Friday. He has been ramping up in his baseball activities and MLB.com has him "likely" returning on July 17th. Make sure to trade for him before he returns.

Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B/OF, San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. has not been that elite five-tool category player this season. While his batting average (.277) and stolen base (23) numbers are both solid at this point, he's lacking severely in the home run (five), runs scored (45) and RBI categories (35). That comes as a major surprise since Tatis had 25 home runs, drove in 71 runs, and scored 111 runs in 2025.

However, there is still optimism that the Padres slugger can get those home run numbers up in the second half. His .343 xwOBA ranks in the 71st percentile, his 91.8 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 86th percentile, his 10.7% barrel rate ranks in the 67th percentile, his 52.6% hard-hit rate ranks in the 95th percentile, and his 75.8 mph bat speed ranks in the 91st percentile.

Even his launch angle sweet-spot rate (30.6%) is up 1.7% from last year (28.9%).

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a leadoff homer OUT OF THE BALLPARK 😤 pic.twitter.com/mEzl9CwE2P

— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2026

Although Tatis needs to improve his pull air rate (8.9%) moving forward, the fact that he is still hitting the ball hard with a solid barrel rate should help him hit more homers in the second half. His 10.7% barrel rate is right around where it was last year (11%).

That's enough reason to trade for Tatis in Week 16 of the fantasy baseball season. These are the type of players fantasy managers should be looking to acquire in trades. If the home runs can start to come, he can return to being that elite five-tool category player. It's worth the risk to trade for him in all fantasy formats.

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