Fantasy Baseball Buy-Lows? Unlucky Star Players (Week 12)

Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick hasn't been as elite on the mound his last few times out. He hasn't completed six innings in a start since May 13 and just allowed a season-high five runs (four earned runs) in his most recent outing against the Yankees last week. His strikeout numbers have also been down lately, as he has struck out just four batters in each of his last three starts.

Although Messick appears to have hit some sort of rookie wall in his first full season in the big leagues, he's a fantastic buy in Week 12 of the fantasy baseball season. It's not totally surprising to see the southpaw's numbers come down a bit from the start of the season. Teams have gotten more film on the young left-hander, and hitters are quickly adjusting to his pitch-mix.

Still, the 25-year-old rookie projects well for the rest of the season. His expected ERA (3.34), expected batting average against (.231), average exit velocity (87.5 mph), chase rate (32.4%), whiff rate (27.1%), strikeout rate (25.6%), barrel rate (6.1%), and hard-hit rate (34%) all rank in the top 35% of the league. Messick also owns a solid 11.6% swinging strike rate.

Those metrics, combined with his early-season performances in March/April, make him a top pitcher target in trade negotiations.

Bryce Harper, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper is currently in a massive slump at the plate. He is batting just .171 (11-for-64) with three home runs, two doubles, nine RBI, and one stolen base over his last 21 games since May 24. The two-time National League MVP is also in a 0-for-16 stretch at the plate dating back to the weekend.

But this recent offensive stretch shouldn't cause fantasy managers any concern. Hitters go through slumps all the time at the plate, and Harper is still carrying elite metrics across the board in his 15th Major League campaign. The lefty slugger has a .407 xwOBA, .286 expected batting average, .551 expected slugging, 13.1% barrel rate, and a 37.4% launch angle sweet-spot rate.

Bryce Harper rings the bell! 🔔 pic.twitter.com/NKEqtNb8RD

— MLB (@MLB) June 2, 2026

These metrics prove that Harper is not going to be slumping for much longer. His expected batting average (.286) is 36 points higher than his actual batting average (.250), and his expected slugging (.551) is 67 points higher than his actual slugging (.484). Sending out offers for him now amid a rough stretch is exactly what fantasy managers should be doing.

Now, it's not going to be easy to trade for Harper since he's on pace for 34 home runs, 90 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. But his fantasy value is definitely a bit down, so fantasy managers should capitalize on this opportunity.

Davis Martin, SP, Chicago White Sox

Regression was always going to hit Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin hard. Unfortunately, that regression has come fast for the young right-hander. After allowing only 10 earned runs in his first 56 innings pitched this season (1.61 ERA), Martin has given up 20 earned runs in his last 25 2/3 innings pitched (7.01 ERA).

His worst start during this recent stretch actually came in his most recent outing on Tuesday against the Yankees. He allowed a season-high nine runs on eight hits with three walks, three home runs, and four strikeouts across 3 1/3 innings. Those three home runs matched the same number of home runs Martin gave up in his first 13 starts this season (three).

Despite how poorly the White Sox starter has looked on the mound lately, he's someone fantasy managers should be looking to trade for. He was never going to be that sub-2.00 ERA pitcher, and his overall numbers were going to drop at some point. However, his swing-and-miss stuff should help him stay afloat.

Martin still owns an 88th percentile chase rate (34.9%), a 69th percentile whiff rate (27.6%), and a 70th percentile strikeout rate (25.2%). He also has a 5.4% walk rate, a 6.2% barrel rate, and a 12.6% swinging strike rate that should keep him as a top fantasy pitcher for the rest of the season. Don't let a few rough outings distract from the fact that he has been really good in 2026.

Mookie Betts, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts is struggling to get going at the plate right now. Since being activated from the injured list on May 11, Betts is slashing just .211/.263/.366 with five home runs, four doubles, 11 RBI, and one stolen base. That 30-game sample size has fantasy managers panicking about what to do with the four-time World Series champion.

The short answer is to trade for him because Betts is due for some positive regression. His .270 expected batting average is 69 points higher than his actual batting average (.201), and his .439 expected slugging is 69 points higher than his actual slugging (.370). His average exit velocity (90.1 mph), launch angle sweet-spot rate (43.9%), and squared-up rate (42.7%) all rank pretty well as well.

Mookie Betts homers out of the cleanup spot in the @Dodgers order! pic.twitter.com/O2Yzjkbsr2

— MLB (@MLB) May 27, 2026

Fantasy managers shouldn't expect Betts to post MVP numbers anymore, but he can still be a solid all-around fantasy contributor. He's too talented a hitter not to eventually break out of this slump, and there are signs that this rough offensive stretch could end soon. The 33-year-old has a hit in five of his last eight games, which included back-to-back multi-hit performances on Saturday and Sunday this past weekend.

Trade for him now before his fantasy value rises.

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