2026 U.S. Open Power Rankings: Top 10 Golfers To Watch

June 16, 2026

Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 players to watch at the 2026 U.S. Open from Shinnecock Hills Golf Club His data-backed insights into who is primed for success.

With firm fairways, punishing rough, and some of the most exacting greenside surrounds in championship golf, Shinnecock Hills has long stood as one of the sport's purest examinations of complete skill. Unlike many modern venues that can be overpowered with length, success here demands a far broader toolkit -- precise iron play, creativity around the greens, patience in the wind, and the discipline to accept that bogeys are often part of the equation.

As a result, this championship has a habit of elevating a different type of contender than the betting market initially expects. Some of the game's biggest stars arrive with obvious advantages, while others face subtle questions that could be exposed over four demanding days on Long Island.

But how does this elite field stack up at the top -- and who, if anyone, should you be targeting on pre-week betting boards? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at the 2026 U.S. Open!

No. 10 - Russell Henley

LET RUSSELL HENLEY COOK 🔥🎯

Phenomenal shot to set up his FOURTH straight birdie from hole 16 to winning on the first playoff hole

📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/XRXeGURr1O

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) May 31, 2026

Russell Henley doesn't exactly fit the mold of your traditional brawny, big-hitting U.S. Open contender, but Shinnecock Hills is far from your average Open venue.

As opposed to the Winged Foots and Torrey Pines' of the world, where length has often been a prerequisite for success, Shinnecock famously crowned Corey Pavin as champion 31 years ago and saw accurate players outperform their longer counterparts by roughly half a stroke per round in its last showing at the 2018 U.S. Open

Henley will lead a collection of shorter, more positional ball-strikers against this field of the game's best, and with five top-10 finishes in his last eight Major starts, he's already proven his game travels across a wide variety of championship tests. No player in this field finds more fairways, and few are better equipped to capitalize once they're there. Henley ranks in the 95th percentile in proximity from 100-150 yards and the 93rd percentile from 150-200 yards, giving him one of the strongest short/middle-iron profiles in the championship.

Just as importantly, the areas where Shinnecock tends to separate contenders from pretenders align with some of Henley's greatest strengths. He led the field around the greens at the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst -- another venue defined by elevated putting surfaces and tightly mown runoff areas -- and paced the field in approach play at this year's Masters, where similarly complex green contours and tucked hole locations place a premium on ball-striking precision.

Henley may never intimidate a field with overwhelming length, but on a golf course that rewards discipline, accuracy, and touch, few players arrive with a more compelling case to outperform expectations.

No. 9 - Ludvig Åberg

While it’s difficult to ever fully discount a ball-striking profile like Ludvig Åberg’s, there is at least some reason for hesitation when isolating Shinnecock’s demands.

Unlike venues such as Muirfield Village, Torrey Pines, or TPC Sawgrass -- where Total Driving and tee-to-green efficiency tend to dictate outcomes -- Shinnecock Hills places a greater emphasis on creativity, touch, and exposure in the elements.

Those are areas where, while not a weakness in the traditional sense, Åberg is still developing relative to the very top tier in this field. For a player with one of the more optimized tee-to-green profiles on Tour, the question becomes what happens when the game is forced into less structured, more improvisational patterns.

We’ve already seen short-game volatility surface in similar championship settings. At the 2024 U.S. Open, a Saturday loss of 2.8 strokes around the greens coincided with a slide from the lead into the outskirts of the top 10. At the 2024 Masters, he lost strokes chipping in all four rounds -- the 2.3 strokes lost in total making up over half of his losing margin to Scottie Scheffler. And more recently at Muirfield Village, he endured a 6.15-stroke loss around the greens across four days en route to a T39 finish.

Now, that’s not to overstate a single statistical category, particularly given clear year-to-year improvement in his short game. But among the elite names in this field, it remains one of the few identifiable pressure points, and one that will be repeatedly tested if Shinnecock plays even remotely close to its historically demanding profile.

Åberg is unquestionably one of the premier talents in the game, but there is a reasonable case that this may not be the ideal canvas to showcase his metronomic strengths. Unlike many of the point A-to-point B setups that have helped define his rise, this week may ask a more irregular, less predictable set of questions.

No. 8 - Patrick Reed

PATRICK REED ALBATROSS!!!! 4TH IN U.S. OPEN HISTORY pic.twitter.com/IgWXYQyASw

— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) June 12, 2025

In spite of his insistence (or obligation), to remain on the periphery of the wider professional golf ecosystem, Patrick Reed continues to surface in Major Championships.

Two starts at Augusta and Aronimink have yielded finishes of 12th and 10th, despite his own admission that preparation was limited to work on his home course in Houston.

Whatever the formula is, it continues to travel. And Shinnecock Hills represents another strong opportunity to add to that resume. His fourth-place finish here in 2018 remains his best U.S. Open result, and Reed himself has spoken openly about his affinity for its demands.

"That’s what I love about both those golf courses: you can’t be robotic when you play those. You have to be creative." - speaking about Augusta and Shinnecock.

That creativity -- in with his ball-striking and his short game -- has long defined Reed’s best work, and Shinnecock’s blend of options off of the tee, exposure to the elements, and short grass around the greens will once again put that skill set under a spotlight.

The last time he teed it up against this level of field, he gained nearly six strokes on approach at Aronimink alone, finishing only behind champion Aaron Rai for the week. With Shinnecock placing less emphasis on pure driving and more on creativity around and into the greens, Reed profiles as a live contender to add a second Major title and reassert himself among the game’s elite championship performers.

No. 7 - Cameron Young

The rapid rise of Cameron Young in 2026 has taken a minor stumble through the back half of May into June, but in spite of disappointments at Aronimink and Muirfield Village, Young remains one of the highest-upside propositions in this field.

Like Ludvig, Cam may be docked a few notches compared to a regular week on Tour, as Shinnecock won’t put nearly the same emphasis on pure driving volume. But what Young possesses over Åberg is a legitimate short-game weapon to complement his ball-striking gifts.

In 25 starts since bringing college teammate Kyle Sterbinsky onto the bag, Young has gained at least 3.0 strokes putting on nine occasions -- compared to just 12 times in his 83 starts prior.

This newfound upside has already translated into three wins and six top-fives over the last 12 months alone, including a career-defining victory at TPC Sawgrass in March. And notably, his two best putting performances have both come on venues that mirror the speed and slope we expect this week (+10.33 at Donald Ross’ Sedgefield and +7.91 at last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont).

There’s no question Young has the talent and temperament to contend in the game’s biggest events, yet current odds boards have him down as low as the eighth or ninth favorite in some spots. That gap between perception and ceiling is exactly where his appeal lies. In a field where separation is earned in narrow windows, Young is one of the few players capable of changing the shape of a leaderboard in a single afternoon.

No. 6 - Xander Schauffele

While casual viewers of the PGA Tour might consider Xander Schauffele an under-the-radar commodity at this year's U.S. Open, betting markets are paying ample respect to one of the game's premier Major Championship performers.

Priced as the fourth man on most odds boards -- ahead of 2026 Player of the Year candidates Cam Young and Matt Fitzpatrick, as well as multiple U.S. Open champions Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau -- Schauffele enters Shinnecock as one of the week's most respected contenders.

His track record speaks for itself, particularly in this championship. In nine career U.S. Open appearances, Schauffele has never finished outside the top 15, highlighted by a T6 finish here in 2018. Across all Major Championships, he owns two victories, just three missed cuts, and an astounding 47% top-10 rate in 36 career starts.

Looking under the hood, it's not difficult to see why these championships have repeatedly suited Xander's fancy. Since arriving on Tour in 2017, Schauffele has consistently boasted one of the game's most well-rounded profiles -- combining elite ball-striking with a premier short game and a proven ability to thrive in difficult scoring conditions.

This season has been far from Schauffele's most prolific when it comes to finding contention on Sunday afternoon. But what he's lacked in top-end finishes, he's largely made up for with week-to-week consistency. Over his last 10 starts, Xander has finished outside the top 30 just once while recording five top-seven finishes.

The numbers have been frustratingly fickle, but he has shown signs of the elite ceiling that propelled him to World No. 2 two seasons ago. At the Masters, Schauffele led the field with a combined 11.9 strokes gained with his driving and approach play. A month later at the PGA Championship, he was one of the few players to solve Aronimink's tricky greens, gaining 9.5 strokes putting -- the second-best mark in the field.

For a player whose game is tailor-made for demanding examinations such as these, the recent form paints a clear picture: once everything inevitably clicks into place during the same week, Schauffele's ascent back toward the summit of professional golf could prove to be a swift one. Given his remarkable U.S. Open résumé, I'm not expecting him to tarnish that record anytime soon.

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No. 5 - Tommy Fleetwood

I have a real soft spot for this final approach into 18 by Tommy Fleetwood at Shinnecock in 2018, as I was standing directly behind it and couldn’t believe the sound it made. Not to mention the flight.

He of course went on to hole the birdie putt for 62 to win the U.S. Open https://t.co/0IsZUEGcS1 pic.twitter.com/kuT8i5LXFl

— Christopher Powers (@CPowers14) May 18, 2026

In a career sadly defined by near-misses and what-ifs, Tommy Fleetwood's runner-up finish at Shinnecock Hills in 2018 remains among the most painful.

Beginning the final round six shots off the lead, Fleetwood fired a stunning 63 from the morning wave, briefly threatening both the championship and U.S. Open scoring history before ultimately falling one shot short of Brooks Koepka. While Tommy hasn't come quite as close in the years since, he arrives at Shinnecock once again playing some of the best golf in the world.

Fleetwood has contended in each of the last two Signature Events on the PGA Tour schedule, finishing T5 at Quail Hollow and T4 at Muirfield Village before adding another solid result with a T11 in Canada last week.

Statistically, you could make a compelling case that few players are better suited to this week's test. Fleetwood ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained around the green and sixth in driving accuracy -- a combination that should prove invaluable at a venue expected to feature one of the season's steepest rough penalties and lowest GIR rates. Add in his reputation as one of the game's premier wind players, and it's easy to understand why Shinnecock has brought out some of his best golf.

The narratives surrounding Fleetwood will persist until he captures a championship of this stature, but his résumé has grown considerably over the last several seasons. Regardless of where you stand on his Sunday record, there is little debate that Fleetwood belongs among the game's elite. At a golf course that suits his strengths as well as any in America, he once again finds himself in position to finally break through.

No. 4 - Matt Fitzpatrick

In a season that has already reshaped the trajectory of Matt Fitzpatrick’s career, the one thing still missing through the first five months of 2026 is a true run in contention at a Major Championship.

With two opportunities ahead -- first this week and then next month back home in the British Isles -- the World No. 4 has a clear chance to change that narrative. And nothing in his statistical profile suggests any reason for concern about his ability to do so.

While Fitzpatrick’s short game initially carried him to the fringes of the game’s elite, it has been his ball-striking that has elevated him into a player routinely priced among the favorites. For the season, he remains one of just two players on Tour to rank inside the top 10 in both Total Driving and SG: Approach. He also sits third in this field around the greens, and recently logged his best putting performance of the year (+4.73) on Canadian greens with similar agronomy.

Looking back, Fitzpatrick has always shown a tendency to rise in the game’s most demanding environments. As a part-time PGA Tour member in 2018, he hovered around the top 15 throughout a historically difficult week here at Shinnecock. Four years later, he returned to the same championship and captured his first Major title at The Country Club at Brookline. Now, four years removed from that breakthrough, his statistical profile suggests a player operating at an even higher level.

For good reason, Fitzpatrick will once again find himself among the central figures near the top of the betting board this week, and despite recent disappointments, arrives at Shinnecock as a legitimate threat to capture a second Major Championship.

It’s been eight years since Rory McIlroy’s dreams were derailed by an opening 80 at Shinnecock Hills in 2018, but with six top-10 finishes, two runner-ups, and no result worse than 19th in his seven U.S. Open starts since then, he’s never a name to be discounted in the sport’s most demanding test.

And while Shinnecock may not represent his most natural fit on paper, this is far from the same player who was overwhelmed on that Thursday morning eight years ago. McIlroy has since evolved into a far more complete performer in firm, fast conditions, shedding his early-career reputation of a player who enjoyed his best moments on softer, more benign setups.

That evolution is most evident in his short game and approach play under pressure. Recent performances around Augusta National and Pinehurst have reinforced his ability to handle demanding greenside tests, while his last start at Muirfield Village produced his best approach performance in nearly four months (+4.27) on a course that yielded a GIR rate of just 59.8% -- seven points below the Tour average.

Even with that, McIlroy’s path is rarely straightforward. He hit just 53% of fairways that week, a number that would normally raise alarms -- but at Shinnecock, that may not be as predictive as it appears. This routing historically sees some of the highest club-down rates and widest landing areas of any Major Championship venue in recent years: showcased by a driving accuracy rate of 71% in 2018.

That said, driving volatility has been a consistent theme in his two Major starts this season, and wide misses around Shinnecock will be especially punitive given the length of the rough and the severity of its greenside runoffs.

Still, the broader case remains intact. With a Major already secured in 2026 and a proven U.S. Open track record since his early Shinnecock collapse, McIlroy arrives with a profile that is far more complete -- and far more adaptable -- than his history at this venue would suggest.

Three-quarters of the way to the career Grand Slam, Shinnecock Hills presents Scottie Scheffler with his first real chance to join golf’s most exclusive club. But for the first time this season, he sits as the No. 2 player in these rankings, rather than the top spot he has occupied all year.

The storylines are firmly on his side, and the betting market still paints him as the class of this field. But Scottie’s recent results paint a slightly less dominant picture than we’ve come to expect from the World No. 1.

His T12 at Muirfield Village marked an 11th straight start without a victory -- his longest winless stretch in three years -- and some of his most uncharacteristic finishes have come at venues where he’s historically thrived.

A T12 at Memorial, T22 at TPC Sawgrass, and T24 at Bay Hill each reflect a rare dip across three of the Tour’s most demanding setups, and a clear step below his usual standard.

At Memorial, visible frustration crept in during windy stretches on the back nine, particularly around the par-3 16th. The question is whether similar moments could surface again on an even more exposed Shinnecock layout.

That’s the current tension with Scheffler. He remains the clear betting favorite, but there are faint questions about whether his absolute peak is arriving as consistently as it once did. No one in the game can match him at his best, but that version has appeared slightly less frequently in recent months.

Statistically, the foundation is unchanged. Scheffler still leads the Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2026, built on elite driving accuracy, iron play, and around-the-green control -- a profile that should translate seamlessly to a U.S. Open test like Shinnecock.

The question isn’t whether the game is there. It’s whether the small margins that have slipped in recent weeks tighten back into place under the most demanding examination in golf.

After a bitter disappointment at Augusta National to start his Major Campaign, Jon Rahm's last two months have proven to all that whispers of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

In fact, one week after posting a non-competitive T38 at the Masters, the two-time Major winner lapped the LIV field in Mexico City -- beating runner-up and top Spanish prospect David Puig by 6 shots.

In his next shot at a Major Championship, Rahm entered his final back-nine at Aronimink tied with eventual champion Aaron Rai. And while the Spaniard played a fine final nine holes at 1-under. He wasn't able to keep pace with the surging Englishman, who played a magical final round to best Rahm and the rest of the field by three.

His most recent start saw him bested by another Englishman. This time in his home LIV event in Andalucia. Rahm surged from five back on the final day with a 4-under 67 (beating the weekly scoring average by five shots), but Tyrrell Hatton was ultimately able to nurse his 54-hole lead home and capture his second LIV title.

Even without the, win, there are plenty of positives for the World No. 8 to take from his last start into Shinnecock Hills. Rahm gained nearly nine shots to the field with his irons at Valderrama and another four around the greens.

For the season, he's lapping the league in Total Driving, Birdie Average, and Greens in Regulation. And last time he entered a field of this calibre, he proved very capable of translating his LIV Golf form against the PGA Tour's best -- besting all but three players from tee-to-green over four rounds in Philadelphia.

The brutally tough conditions at Shinnecock should be of little concern for Rahm this week, as he has built his career on thriving in the game’s most demanding tests. From a cold, windswept Augusta National in 2023, to a 7,700-yard U.S. Open setup at Torrey Pines in 2021, to the most difficult iteration of Muirfield Village in recent memory (2020), Rahm has consistently shown the ball-striking, short-game skill, and mental strength required to outlast elite fields on championship venues.