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RotoBaller's top PGA player props, best bets, and matchup picks for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Get commission-free odds and market edges with Novig golf picks.
Hello golf fans, it's great to be with you again here at RotoBaller! Following a thrilling finish and ultimately a 300-1 outright winner at Aronimink, the Tour moves swiftly to TPC Craig Ranch and the CJ Cup Byron Nelson! Once one of the maligned golf courses on the schedule, TPC Craig Ranch has recently undergone a $22 million renovation with the goal of making these Tour staple into a legitimate championship test.
This week's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig. There are lots of juicy numbers available for the year's first major!
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your season-long, DFS, and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite PGA bets and props for the 2026 Truist Championship Signature Event.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge you to use their services. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- there's no commission kept by the site.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, tournament matchups, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds.
If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
PGA Tournament Matchup Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate/available as of 5/20/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Karl Vilips (+104 at Novig) OVER Mackenzie Hughes
While Mackenzie Hughes has long been regarded as one of golf’s premier short-game specialists, it feels as though we’ve reached the point where his ball-striking deficiencies can no longer be fully masked by his wedges and putter.
Across his last six starts, the Canadian has lost an average of 2.83 strokes per tournament combined off the tee and on approach -- a bottom-10 mark in this already beleaguered field. And in that stretch, he hasn’t recorded a finish better than T55 since the Cognizant Classic in February.
Even more concerning is where those struggles are showing up. Hughes ranks in just the 11th percentile in strokes gained on approach shots from 200+ yards, a range that should be heavily emphasized this week given both the length of TPC Craig Ranch and his below-average driving distance.
Meanwhile, Karl Vilips appears to be trending in the opposite direction. The young Australian has posted finishes of T19, T33, and T24 in three of his last four starts, while gaining strokes both on approach and with the putter in each of his last six tournaments.
Unlike Hughes, Vilips will have a distinct edge on the field with his long irons: He ranks in the 83rd percentile in strokes gained on approaches from beyond 200 yards, and even grades out as the superior putter from the key 5-15 foot range this season.
Hughes’ short game can still keep him competitive on occasion, but the gap in current ball-striking form between these two is difficult to ignore. With Vilips holding the edge both off the tee and from long-range approach distances, I don't see him as an underdog at this stage of their respective careers. At plus-money, the value lies firmly with the young Australian.
Tom Kim (-114 at Novig) OVER Michael Brennan
While the 24-year-old Brennan possesses the elite driving tools of a legitimate upside prospect, the rest of his profile still makes him difficult to trust in matchup markets.
Despite ranking as one of the PGA Tour’s best drivers statistically, Brennan has yet to record a top-20 finish this season, logging four missed cuts and six finishes outside the top 40 across 12 starts. And at a venue where strong putting has consistently separated contenders from the pack, his weaknesses on the greens remain especially concerning: ranking outside the top 100 in strokes gained putting per round.
Meanwhile, Tom Kim arrives with legitimate signs of life after a T6 finish in Myrtle Beach, where he posted his best ball-striking performance of the season (+8.97 strokes gained tee-to-green). More encouragingly, Kim has quietly added some distance in recent starts while maintaining his trademark driving accuracy -- a combination that should play far better at Craig Ranch than it would have a year ago.
In addition to the loftier season-long baseline, Kim also owns the course history angle in his hometown of Dallas. Along with making the cut in three of four appearances at TPC Craig Ranch, he’s posted finishes of T17 and T34 here while facing significantly stronger fields than this week’s diluted event.
If the ball-striking resurgence from Myrtle Beach proves legitimate, Kim should simply operate at a higher level than Brennan across most areas of the game -- particularly on the greens, where this matchup is most likely to be decided.
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PGA Finishing Position Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 5/20/2026. Odds are subject to change.
Scottie Scheffler WINNER (+205 at Novig)
Normally, I like to use this section for a longer-shot outright further down the board. But with most of Novig’s numbers currently aligned with market pricing, the clearest value this week actually sits at the very top.
Fresh off an eight-shot victory at this very venue a year ago, Scottie Scheffler finally appears back to the peak ball-striking level that propelled him to World No. 1. After hovering around Tour average with his irons through the opening months of the season, the Texan has gained a combined 18.79 strokes on approach across his last four starts -- the best 16-round stretch in this field.
With those approach concerns seemingly resolved, Scheffler’s profile suddenly looks almost flawless. He ranks as the top overall driver in the field when combining distance and accuracy, has gained more strokes around the green than anyone on Tour this season, and even grades out as a top-five putter from the key 5-15 foot range.
From a betting perspective, there may not be a safer investment in golf right now. Scheffler’s statistical profile and overwhelming course history make contention feel almost inevitable, especially in a field featuring just one other top-40 player in the world rankings.
Whether you intend on selling your position for profit in-tournament, or riding it through Sunday afternoon, having a Scheffler outright at this number feels like valuable equity. Despite a relatively disappointing T14 at last week’s PGA Championship, I haven’t felt this confident in Scheffler at any point this season. Something big feels imminent -- and just like last year, his hometown event could be the genesis of it all.
Jhonattan Vegas TOP 10 (+890 at Novig)
Instead of chasing an outright at inflated odds, my attention turns to the placement market, where one of last week's best ball-strikers is available at nearly 9/1 for a top-10 finish.
Consistency has never been Jhonattan Vegas’ calling card, but over the last two seasons he’s repeatedly flashed upside on easier, driver-heavy setups. He captured the 2024 3M Open after strong ball-striking performances in both Detroit and the Quad Cities, while also recording top-fives at Kapalua and the 7,500-yard test at Quail Hollow last season.
Leading into that career-best major finish at Quail Hollow, Vegas quietly posted rounds of 63-69-67-69 here at TPC Craig Ranch en route to a T13. His length has always translated well to this venue, as evidenced by the 11.23 strokes gained off-the-tee across 14 career rounds. And more importantly, he finally solved these greens a year ago, gaining a season-best 4.89 strokes putting on Craig Ranch’s bentgrass surfaces.
If that comfort level carries over, the tee-to-green form certainly looks capable of cashing this ticket. In his last start at Aronimink, Vegas produced arguably the best ball-striking performance of his career: gaining 1.7 strokes off the tee, 6.19 on approach, and 3.21 around the green -- outperforming even Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm in those categories for the week.
A cold putter ultimately held him back, but these far more forgiving greens should help neutralize that weakness. With a T9 on debut and a near top-10 finish here last season, Vegas has already shown clear comfort at Craig Ranch. At nearly 9/1, that’s enough for me to fire on the Venezuelan this week.
