WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 2 (2025)

September 13, 2025

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 2 of 2025. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 2 of the 2025 fantasy football season. Don't overreact to one week of fantasy football, but we'll have a decent sample of data after a few weeks. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. We're using a similar data-driven process to quantify the offensive and defensive matchups based on underlying metrics.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The WR/CB Matchup Chart is back again for 2025! You can find it below! We'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive number from the offensive one. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

With more data from the 2025 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

Don’t panic if a receiver struggled in Week 1. One quick note is that the Week 1 data shows up on the chart, but we still haven’t downgraded or adjusted too much after one week. If a player is talented or near-elite, they didn’t have a massive downgrade. However, we also need to validate that if a player showed a high target earning skill like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, we need to pay attention. There are multiple layers to consider in these matchups.

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

One interesting note is that the Bengals, Seahawks, and 49ers were the three teams that had only two receivers run a route in Week 1. Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 2 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Cleveland Browns.

The visual below shows offenses from the Dallas Cowboys to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The visual below shows offenses from the Los Angeles Rams to the New York Jets.

The visual below shows offenses from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Washington Commanders.

Best Week 2 WR/CB Matchups

Worst Week 2 WR/CB Matchups

Week 2 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Cam Taylor-Britt

After a down game in Week 1, Thomas Jr. should bounce back against one of the weaker secondaries in the NFL with the Bengals. Thomas Jr. (24.1 percent) trailed Travis Hunter in target share (27.6 percent) in Week 1 against the Panthers. Thomas Jr. was targeted downfield, with a 41.3 percent air yards share compared to Hunter at 26.5 percent.

He projects to matchup against Taylor-Britt, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per route and the 17th-most yards per route run. The Bengals fired Lou Anarumo, and the defense might struggle again in 2025. The Bengals ranked in the middle of the pack in zone (No. 15) and man coverages (No. 18) last season.

They ran two-high coverages at the 11th-highest rate, yet they allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per dropback. Thomas Jr. was one of their better offensive options, evidenced by his 23 percent target rate, 2.15 yards per route run, and 27.7 percent first-read target share when facing two-high looks in 2024.

We'll want a piece of this game because the Bengals and Jaguars game presents an early over/under of 50, leading the league in Week 2. That should align with boom performances, especially with their main offensive pieces that matter for fantasy football.

Quentin Johnston vs. Kyu Blu Kelly

Johnston led the Chargers in receiving yards and touchdowns (2) in their Week 1 matchup against the Chiefs. However, Johnston was third in target per route (19 percent) behind Ladd McConkey (24 percent) and Keenan Allen (28 percent). A quick way to see if a receiver over- or under-produced involves looking at their expected fantasy points.

For context, Johnston scored nearly twice as many fantasy points (24.9) compared to his expected total (12.6). McConkey (15.2) and Allen (15.5) had better expected fantasy points than Johnston. However, there's research that tells us we want efficient players, especially if they're scoring fantasy points with a healthy chunk of volume.

The Raiders ran the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage in Week 1, trailing the Cowboys, Titans, and Packers. Johnston tends to struggle against zone coverage, with 1.58 yards per route compared to 3.73 yards per route run against man in Week 1. However, the underrated part of Johnston's usage in Week 1 involved the Chargers scheming him on horizontally breaking routes.

Johnston garnered a 30 percent target rate and 2.80 yards per route on horizontally breaking routes. Maybe it's a noisy one-game sample, but Johnston had a 26 percent target rate and 1.63 yards per route run when targeted on horizontal routes in 2024.

Johnston has the speed and athleticism to blow by Kyu Blu Kelly and make contested catches. That's especially notable because the Chargers have multiple offensive weapons to hinder opposing defenses from prioritizing one or two players.

Johnston might struggle to earn more volume with McConkey and Allen healthy, but he made the case for continued usage on horizontally breaking routes. There's still a boom or bust nature to Johnston when he plays on a Chargers team that ranked 27th in pass rate over expected (PrROE) in Week 1.

Rashid Shaheed vs. Upton Stout

Speaking of PrROE, the Saints' passing offense gave us a glimpse of optimism against the Cardinals. They had the 12th-highest PrROE in Week 1, but they're still having offensive line issues. The Saints' offensive line allowed the ninth-highest pressure rate. That's notable because the Cardinals' defense pressured the quarterback at the lowest pressure rate in Week 1, similar to 2024 (No. 26).

Shaheed was third on the team in target rate (22 percent), behind Chris Olave (31 percent) and Juwan Johnson (28 percent). Johnson garnering a high rate of targets feels unusual, especially since the Cardinals typically struggled to defend the tight end position. Expect Shaheed to be the second-best target earner for the Saints regularly.

The 49ers' pass defense used single-high coverages at the ninth-highest rate in Week 1. It could've been a matchup-based situation because the 49ers ran single-high looks at the 22nd-highest percentage in 2024. Why does that matter?

It matters because of how Shaheed was used last season against single-high coverage. Shaheed led the team in air yards share (52.7 percent), with the second-highest target rate (28 percent) and a 34.6 percent first-read target share against single high looks in 2024. The main change involves the coaching staff in 2025, with Kellen Moore as the head coach.

It's hard to compare Shaheed to A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith in the Eagles' offense under Moore in 2024. However, Brown led the team (46.6 percent) with Smith behind in second (31.1 percent) in first-read target share when facing single-high looks in 2024. We could see Moore scheming up targets downfield for Shaheed if the 49ers deploy a high rate of single high looks.

The Seahawks target Upton Stout in Week, with a 24 percent target rate allowed on his coverage snaps. There might be more of the same in Week 2 for Shaheed against Stout, making it a slight WR/CB matchup upgrade.

Week 2 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Rashod Bateman vs. Greg Newsome II

Bateman continues to be a volatile receiver with boom performances that tend to be unpredictable. The Ravens blew a massive lead against the Bills, which could explain their middling PrROE (No. 17) in Week 1. It's hard to trust Bateman or any receiver who garners a target rate below 20 percent in a run-heavy offense, even in deeper leagues.

That's especially true when Bateman faces one of the more underrated pass defenses that kept the Bengals' elite duo in check in Week 1. The Browns' pass defense weirdly allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per dropback last season. As a man-heavy defense, the Browns deployed the fifth-most man coverage and allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per dropback. That's a Jim Schwartz special, using a man-heavy defense.

Interestingly, the Browns' defense lowered their man coverage to 12th in Week 1, possibly to confuse their divisional in-state rivals. Although Bateman teases us with his amazing Average Separation Score against man coverage, he continues to see low target rates (17 percent) and inefficient production (1.50 yards per route). Bateman can win against man coverage, but it's a matter of whether the volume will be there.

Grew Newsome II allowed zero yards per route in Week 1 after allowing the 12th-most in 2024. The Browns may shift Newsome to cover Zay Flowers, but the Ravens tend to move him all over the formation, with Bateman being more of an outside receiver. The Ravens project as 11-point favorites in Week 2, suggesting they should have another positive game script coming up, so be careful when investing in the Ravens' pass catchers beyond Flowers.

Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Trevon Diggs

The Giants' passing offense continued to go through Malik Nabers and Robinson. Robinson was second on the team in target rate (22 percent) with a decent 34.8 percent first-read target share. The Cowboys' defense played better than expected in Week 1, although the Eagles' passing offense was somewhat unusual.

The Eagles' passing offense ranked sixth in success rate, with the second-highest checkdown percentage, meaning they weren't attacking the Cowboys' pass defense downfield. Russell Wilson peppered Robinson with targets, with an average depth of 3.5 yards, which we could quantify as mainly checkdowns.

The Giants' offensive line allowed the second-highest pressure rate in Week 1 against the Commanders. That's notable because the Commanders' defensive line brought pressure at the 28th-highest rate in Week 1. Interestingly, the Cowboys pressured the quarterback at the third-highest rate in Week 1, despite the absence of Micah Parsons.

Russell Wilson struggled against pressure in 2024, accounting for a sack on 22.7 percent of his dropbacks with a brutal -11.5 completion rate over expected (CPOE) last season. The Eagles didn't target Trevon Diggs in their passing game, which could be related to their high rate of checkdowns or potentially avoiding him in coverage.

Regardless, Robinson isn't much more than a PPR-scam type player in Week 2, though there could be some garbage time production as 5.5 to 6-point underdogs against the Cowboys.

Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Pat Surtain II

Any receiver facing Pat Surtain II should be an automatic downgrade. However, Michael Pittman Jr. qualifies as an above-average option that fantasy managers might consider starting in Week 2. Pittman was second on the team in target rate (29 percent) behind rookie tight end Tyler Warren (39 percent). Furthermore, Pittman was efficient with his targets, leading to 2.86 yards per route run.

Surtain allowed zero fantasy points and yards per route run while being targeted on three percent of his coverage routes and snaps. He allowed the lowest fantasy points and yards per route run in 2024 among qualified cornerbacks to close the season, aligning with him being the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2024.

The Broncos deployed man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in 2024 and the sixth-most in Week 1 of 2025. Pittman was much better against zone coverages (3.67 yards per route) than man (1.75) in Week 1 against the Dolphins. That's not far from Pittman's yards per route against man (1.66) and zone (2.01) in 2024.

Fantasy managers may have to start Pittman in Week 2, but be careful anytime a receiver faces Surtain or the Broncos' cornerbacks.

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