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Corbin's top fantasy football wide receiver sleepers, draft values and upside picks for 2025. His favorite WR3 picks with upside in fantasy football drafts.
Most fantasy football leagues have flex positions, allowing players to choose from a running back, a wide receiver, and a tight end. In formats where players are rewarded for receptions and receiving points, we aim to secure the flex position, typically held by a receiver. Sometimes, receivers being priced as a WR3, meaning WR36 or lower in Average Draft Position (ADP), might lack upside or have situation and talent concerns.
We've seen the market push up rookies and young players, leading to discounts on veterans and other players. It's somewhat like the name brand versus generic, or overhyped compared to underhyped. We'll highlight three veterans and two rookies being priced as a WR3 or lower in ADP who will be worth targeting as a third receiver or someone to hold down the flex position.
We'll examine the player's usage, underlying metrics, and situation to figure out why we should queue up these WR3s in ADP, who could outperform their draft position and provide week-winning performances for a wide receiver or flex spot.
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Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV
FFPC ADP: 78.8, WR36
Meyers finished the season as WR13 in expected fantasy points per game (EP/G) in 2024 and WR31 in 2023. Without Davante Adams, Meyers ranked 12th in EP/G from Weeks 4-18. Meyers continues to be valued as a WR3, but he flashed WR1-type upside.
Theoretically, Meyers and the Raiders pass-catchers should have a quarterback upgrade. That's evident by Geno Smith ranking fifth in completion rate over expected (CPOE) and fourth in adjusted completion percentage among quarterbacks with 50 dropbacks.
For context, Gardner Minshew ranked 30th, with Aidan O'Connell at 42nd out of 53 qualified quarterbacks. Furthermore, Smith had the fourth-lowest off-target percentage, with Minshew at eighth and O'Connell at 44th. Meyers should see his efficiency increase while maintaining the high-end volume with Smith at quarterback. That suggests Meyers closely replicates the usage and results from the 2024 season.
Summary
Meyers goes near players with some question marks. That includes Rome Odunze, Stefon Diggs, Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr., Ricky Pearsall, and Jordan Addison. Besides Diggs and Samuel at their peak seasons, none of those players garnered high-end volume and production. However, Meyers has been an underrated receiver for fantasy purposes, making him a priority WR3 target in 2025.
Stefon Diggs, WR, NE
FFPC ADP: 80.7, WR37
With Diggs healthy, he nearly matched Nico Collins in target share, with Diggs at 23 percent and Collins at 24 percent. Collins dominated the air yards share (40 percent), with Diggs close behind at 27 percent. That led to Diggs ranking 15th in EP/G based on his usage in the Texans offense.
Diggs showed he can still separate, especially against man coverages, with above-average Separation Scores and yards per route run in 2024. He flashed a similar Average Separation Score to Collins in 2024, showing he can be trusted to win against man coverage.
Diggs continued to show he can earn targets at a near-elite rate. That was evident by Diggs' 25 percent target rate with a 28.5 percent first-read target share. We haven't seen much decline from Diggs before his torn ACL, so there should be at least another season where he can outperform his price point.
It's only a couple of metrics, but Drake Maye had a better off-target rate and adjusted completion percentage. Maye had an above-average off-target rate (No. 23) compared to Stroud (No. 45). Similarly, Maye ranked 17th with Stroud at 37th in adjusted completion percentage.
That's even more notable for Maye because the Patriots offensive line was dreadful, though the Texans weren't far behind. The Patriots allowed the highest pressure rate (40.4 percent), with the Texans close behind in fourth (37 percent).
Furthermore, the Patriots had the highest pass rate over expected, with the Texans at fifth, suggesting Diggs and the Patriots offense should lean more pass-heavy. That's an optimal approach for a high-end target earner like Diggs.
Summary
Diggs has been practicing during camp with positive notes about his separation as he recovers from the torn ACL. Before the injury, Diggs showed above-average Separation Scores against man and zone coverages, per Fantasy Points Data. However, Diggs still trailed Collins and Tank Dell.
The situation looks similar or better than last season, with less competition among the pass-catchers and Maye being an underrated passer heading into Year 2. Diggs should have one more strong season, though he may start slow while being priced as a WR3 or WR4 in best ball or redraft leagues.
Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB
FFPC ADP: 87.3, WR41
The track record for first-round rookie receivers has generally been positive for fantasy purposes. That's especially true with Egbuka, who landed in an above-average offense with multiple paths to succeed, even if Baker Mayfield's touchdown rate regresses.
The receiving prospects coming out of Ohio State have been among the better receivers in the NFL, though most landed in poor situations. One could argue that Egbuka's situation is significantly better than the others. Garrett Wilson had a 27 percent target rate with the 13th-highest EP/G as a rookie. Chris Olave had a 29.3 percent target rate with the 24th-best EP/G in his rookie season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba took a step forward in Year 2 to garner a 22.2 percent target rate and the 18th-best EP/G in 2024. Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr. disappointed, mainly because the fantasy market pushed him up the board with lofty expectations.
Mayfield ranked eighth in CPOE and sixth in adjusted completion percentage last season. The Buccaneers tied for the 18th-highest pass rate in neutral game scripts, showing they might want to be more balanced on offense. However, that was under Liam Coen, who joined the Jaguars.
They promoted Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator in 2025 after being the team's pass game coordinator in the previous season. This allows Grizzard to establish some consistency and a relationship with Mayfield, given that he will have nine offensive coordinators heading into his eighth NFL season.
With Chris Godwin running a team-high 64.1 percent of his routes out of the slot, he led the team in first-read target share (31.7 percent) compared to Mike Evans at 27.4 percent. Egbuka played in the slot 81.1 percent of the time in his final collegiate season, showing that he might slip into Godwin's role if he misses time.
It's somewhat of a mixed bag, but Egbuka's top comparisons include Laquon Treadwell, Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, and Sterling Shepard. Besides Treadwell, the rest of the closest comps have been relatively productive in multiple seasons.
Summary
Egbuka might be your classic rookie who pops off in the second half, especially if Godwin starts off the season strong. The draft community loves Egbuka, though his efficiency dropped from 2.81 receiving yards per team pass attempt as a sophomore to 2.22 in his final college season. Egbuka has multiple paths to upside, making him a middle-round rookie wide receiver sleeper heading into 2025.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
FFPC ADP: 110.4, WR49
After WR14 (2022) and WR8 (2023), Pittman posted the 40th-best EP/G, mainly due to the target volume declining in 2024. For context, the Colts had Anthony Richardson Sr. and Joe Flacco at quarterback, two entirely different quarterbacks at that stage in their careers. Josh Downs is everyone's favorite sleeper pick, but could there be some hidden value with Pittman?
Unfortunately, Richardson has been awful, from an accuracy standpoint, with the fourth-worst CPOE and the lowest adjusted completion percentage among 53 qualified quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones ranked 16th in CPOE and ninth in adjusted completion rate.
Flacco was between Jones and Richardson in terms of passing and accuracy metrics. Pittman trailed Downs in first-read target share (30 percent vs. 26.6 percent). Even with the accuracy issues, Pittman was one of the top receivers in the passing game for the Colts.
Summary
Pittman might lack the upside we're chasing in sleepers in the later rounds. However, there's value in a target earner who posted WR1-type numbers or something close to that in the previous two seasons.
Jones would be better for the pass-catchers unless Richardson takes a step forward as a passer in 2025. As a middle-round WR3 or WR4, Pittman projects as a low-risk, medium-reward receiver at his cost. That makes him someone to consider because Pittman was once valued as a fourth-round pick in 2022 and 2023.
With Jones winning the starting job, Pittman should have a higher ceiling to open the season.
Jayden Higgins, WR, HOU
FFPC ADP: 120, WR51
Higgins had some enticing analytic comps, including DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown, Breshad Perriman, Quentin Johnston, Tee Higgins, and N'Keal Harry. He was the second-ranked receiver on the prospect spreadsheet behind Tetairoa McMillan before the NFL Draft.
He ranked ninth in receiving yards per team pass attempt in his career and was one of 11 prospects with 2.50 yards per route against man and zone coverages. Higgins earned targets at all depths of the field, with the ability to be a reliable target earner who the quarterback trusts to convert first downs.
He converted an above-average percentage of his contested catches, as a big-bodied receiver listed at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds. Higgins possesses near-elite athleticism at his size, evidenced by the 84th percentile Speed Score and 87th percentile Explosion Score.
Some of Higgins' athletic comparisons include his teammate Collins, Tim Patrick, Martavis Bryant, and Kenny Britt. He checks the boxes of being an athletic receiver who can play in the slot and outside. Theoretically, Higgins should be in two-WR sets with Collins, with Christian Kirk playing out of the slot to begin the season.
Summary
The Texans ranked fifth in pass rate over expected last season, but C.J. Stroud was under pressure at the fourth-highest rate. They invested in their offensive line during the offseason, with a second-round right tackle while acquiring Cam Robinson and a few other depth pieces.
This could be a dangerous passing offense, though maybe out of necessity with Joe Mixon injured to begin the season. With several rookies being pushed up the draft board, take the discounted price on Higgins.
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