Are You For Real? Analyzing 4 Surprising Fantasy Baseball Breakouts From Caleb Durbin, Nick Gonzales, Joey Ortiz, Jake Mangum

Tommy analyzes 4 hot fantasy baseball hitters to consider adding in Week 14, 2025. These deeper sleeper hitters could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire breakouts, or just be mirages.

Last week, Thunder Dan expanded our awesome "Are You For Real" starting pitcher series, originally penned by Elliott Baas, and instead shed some light on a handful of lesser-rostered hitters who have been hot of late. This week, yours truly will be doing the same.

In Elliott's original series, he examines three pitchers who posted surprisingly strong starts to see if the production is "sticky" enough to trust in fantasy baseball moving forward. We need more than one "start" to dive deeper on a hitter, but the premise works much the same.

Today, I will be looking at four hitters who have been hot over the past 14-28 days with the goal of figuring out whether their recent strong performances are fluky or a sign of possible sustainable production. All roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 30. Let's jump in!

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Caleb Durbin, 2B/3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers

15% Rostered

The Streak (Last 15 Games): .375 AVG, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 15 R, 1 SB

The starting third baseman for the Brewers has been hitting in the seventh and eighth spots in the order consistently, but that hasn't stopped him from producing loads of runs for the Milwaukee offense over the last two and a half weeks. Durbin continues to get on base for his fellow contact-hitter below, and his runs alone show how valuable that skill is.

Caleb Durbin is one of the hottest hitters in the sport.

Last 12 G:
.349/.396/.488, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 13 R, 1 SB 🔥

Intriguing deep league target with 15/15 upside 👀 pic.twitter.com/exZ6g8F1Qr

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) June 27, 2025

However, when we look at some underlying numbers, a few red flags begin to emerge. For one, Durbin is carrying a .404 BABIP in this span. Compare that to his sub-.300 BABIP in his minor league career and his .259 mark on the season, and this begins to look like a lucky stretch, especially considering his hard contact rate during this 15-game streak is just 20.4%.

The 25-year-old rookie is a gap-to-gap hitter in the purest form. With only four homers and six steals in 63 games, there just doesn't seem to be enough juice in this orange when his batted ball luck inevitably cools down. I'll let someone else ride Durbin's hot streak for as long as it lasts. I don't think I'll miss much.

Verdict: Durbin is a consistent, reliable youngster for the Brewers from an MLB lens. But I'm not sure there's much here for fantasy purposes outside the deepest of leagues. Keep an eye out if he starts to steal more bases or hit more hard fly balls. If that happens, we may change our tune.

Joey Ortiz, 3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers

6% Rostered

The Streak (Last 12 Games): .326 AVG, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 8 R, 2 SB

We don't have to go far for our next name, as Ortiz has been hitting in the nine-hole just behind Durbin for the last two months. Notice the correlation between Ortiz's RBI count and Durbin's run count. That checks out!

Joey Ortiz is a name to watch right now…in the month of June:

70 AB
.314 / 2 HR / 10 RBI / 1 SB
12 K : 3 BB

Finally coming into his own?👀
pic.twitter.com/5uGVc7XRxo

— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) June 25, 2025

The 26-year-old is in his second full MLB campaign, and there may be a bit more to be excited about under the hood for Ortiz. For a shortstop, the righty has a decent hard contact rate at 26.7% after hovering around 30% last season. His fly-ball rate is at a career-high 39%, but his HR/FB numbers could use a bit of positive regression at just 6%.

Ortiz is on pace to match his 11 homers from last year, but as this recent streak has shown, the number suggests he can push that total closer to 15.

With just a .237 BABIP on the season, which suggests some batted ball luck to come, and a quiet nine steals thus far this season, which is on pace to blow past his total of 11 in 2024, it feels like Ortiz is just starting to hit his stride. I prefer him to Durbin, who may just be running super hot at the moment.

Verdict: This may be bold, but I'd drop Durbin for Ortiz in most scenarios. When we're cycling through hitters in this tier, upside is vital. I see a path for the New Mexico State product to jump a couple of tiers as a fantasy hitter. I'm willing to hold him and see what the second half of 2025 holds.

Nick Gonzales, 2B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

5% Rostered

The Streak (Last 14 Games): .345 AVG, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 7 R, 0 SB

The Pirates' starting second baseman coming into the year couldn't even finish one regular-season game before finding himself back on the injured list with an ankle injury that would sideline him for over two months. It's a shame, as Nicky G. had a strong spring training and was seemingly ready to propel the Pirates offense to a different level of success in 2025.

Outside of his home run that aggravated the ankle on Opening Day, Gonzales has hit just two more round-trippers in 23 games, but the underlying numbers suggest he's made legitimate strides as a hitter. The 26-year-old is striking out 4% less than 2024, walking 2% more than 2024, and is creating hard contact at an impressive 39% clip compared to just shy of 31% last year. Now, 24 games are not a big enough sample size to make any big proclamations yet, but it's a start.

NICK GONZALES ISN'T DONE YET

HE'S 5-5 TONIGHT AFTER YET ANOTHER DOUBLE

100.4 MPH exit velocity, .380 xBA https://t.co/Yhb4GshhIH pic.twitter.com/c2dklQFkc9

— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) June 24, 2025

Gonzales has become one of Pittsburgh's best overall hitters, and the staff is taking notice, batting him cleanup in each of his last seven starts. An inflated BABIP is less of a red flag when you look at his hard contact numbers, and it's easy to see a path to more power in the second half of 2025 as Gonzales removes himself further from injury and continues to get consistent at-bats.

Verdict: Gonzales may not be a must-own player yet, especially in shallower and/or Roto leagues where his lack of steals and power make him a bit less exciting. But there's a lot of promise in this bat, and it's easy to see a world in which a healthy Gonzales can be a .290 to .300 hitter with some pop for the remainder of 2025, assuming he can stay off the IL down the stretch.

Jake Mangum, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

7% Rostered

The Streak (Last 20 Games): .360 AVG, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 10 R, 1 SB

A journeyman minor leaguer since 2019, Mangum has finally had his chance to show what he has in the big leagues this season, and it's safe to say he's making the most of his opportunity. This year, Mangum is hitting .314 with 11 steals and one homer in 50 games. While he's not playing every day and his power is almost nonexistent, it's tough to ignore the average and speed combination he brings within a decent offense.

Mangum's 29.1% hard contact rate combined with a .362 BABIP is suspect at first glance, but when you consider his ground-ball rate (61.3%) and his blazing speed, it makes a bit more sense. The troubling part of the equation is that the 29-year-old's stolen bases have slowed down, considering he stole 10 of his 11 bags in the first 30 games of the year, and has only stolen once since then. When you have almost zero power, the steals become quite important.

If I were 100% convinced that Mangum would play every day for the next 80 games, there may be some value here. After all, he has the skill set to steal 40 bases if the situation unfolded correctly. However, something tells me a franchise like the Rays is not going to be content with Mangum as the long-term solution in the outfield, especially considering he's not a plus defender, while the team sits just a game and a half behind the Yankees in July.

Verdict: Mangum is a very fun real-life player and could be an exciting fantasy baseball player if he played more consistently and ran more frequently. Without those factors, though, he seems to be a bit of an empty batting average to me. If your league awards bonus points for hustle infield hits, then Mangum is a must-have! There is more upside to be had in other players on the waiver wire these days.

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