Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleepers, Busts, and Value Picks - Draft Mistakes To Avoid (2025)

Mike Fanelli provides his fantasy football quarterback sleepers, busts, and value picks for 2025. J.J. McCarthy, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and more.

Fantasy football is a year-round game, even for fantasy players who only play in redraft leagues. The offseason is long and boring, but it provides fantasy players with ample time to prepare for the upcoming season. Furthermore, there are several ways fantasy players can prepare for the upcoming season, including examining early average draft position data.

Looking at the ADP data this early ahead of redraft season gives fantasy players a significant advantage. Not only can they see the trends of which players rise and fall in ADP over the course of the summer, but it also gives fantasy players a chance to look for values, busts, and sleepers at every position.

Therefore, let’s look at three early draft values, busts, and sleeper candidates at the quarterback position. The ADP used for this article is courtesy of RotoBaller.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Value Candidates to Target

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP 65.75 | QB7

Mayfield has never offered fantasy players much upside as a rusher. Yet, the veteran quarterback had a career season on the ground in 2024. He set career highs in rushing yards (378) and touchdowns (three). Furthermore, it was his second consecutive year averaging at least 3.5 rushing attempts per game. More importantly, Mayfield is coming off the best fantasy season of his career.

The former Oklahoma star was the QB4 last year, averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game. By comparison, his previous career high was 17.1 fantasy points per game as a rookie. Mayfield finished second in the NFL with 41 passing touchdowns and third with 4,500 yards. Yet, the Buccaneers improved their supporting cast, using their first-round pick on Emeka Egbuka.

Justin Fields, New York Jets – ADP 107.83 | QB12

While Fields is a below-average NFL starting quarterback, the veteran is an excellent option for fantasy players because of his rushing abilities. The former Ohio State star averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game over the first six weeks of last season as the starter for the Pittsburgh Steelers, totaling 23.7 or more in a third of those contests.

Furthermore, the 18.9 average would have made Fields the QB8 on a points-per-game basis in 2024. More importantly, the veteran quarterback was productive in his last year as the unquestioned starter, ranking as the QB9 on a points-per-game basis in 2023 among quarterbacks with at least nine games played. He is vastly underrated at his current ADP.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – ADP 119.02 | QB14

Unfortunately, Prescott missed the second half of last year with a hamstring injury that required surgery. Thankfully, the veteran quarterback will be ready for Week 1. Prescott was a fantasy star in 2023. He was the QB3 that season, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game, totaling a career-high 36 passing touchdowns. Furthermore, Prescott had little impact on the ground, totaling two rushing scores.

More importantly, the veteran quarterback had a very similar set of weapons compared to this year’s unit. However, the Cowboys traded for George Pickens a few weeks ago, giving Prescott his best No. 2 wide receiver since having Amari Cooper in 2021. Furthermore, the team improved the offensive line, selecting Tyler Booker with its first-round NFL Draft pick.

BREAKING: Steelers to trade WR George Pickens to the Cowboys. (via @rapsheet, @TomPelissero) pic.twitter.com/Eh9kMstOPu

— NFL (@NFL) May 7, 2025

Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Bust Candidates to Avoid

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – ADP 87.33 | QB9

While Murray had a solid 2024 season, the veteran quarterback left significant fantasy production on the table. He finished last year as the QB10, averaging 17.5 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, it was Murray’s lowest fantasy points per game average of his career. Yet, the former No. 1 NFL Draft pick had the second-most passing yards in a season of his career (3,851).

Unfortunately, Murray struggled to connect with Marvin Harrison Jr. last year, completing only 53.5% of his passes to the former Ohio State star. More importantly, the Cardinals did next to nothing to improve their offense this offseason. They didn’t add any big-name players in free agency and spent only a sixth-round pick in the NFL Draft on offense.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – ADP 105.5 | QB10

Last season, Goff had the best fantasy season of his career. He ended the year as the QB6, averaging 19.1 fantasy points per game, a higher average than Bo Nix (18.6) and Justin Herbert (16.8). The veteran set career highs in several categories, including completion rate (72.4%), passing touchdowns (37), and quarterback rating (111.8). Yet, fantasy players should temper expectations for Goff this season.

GOFF. WILLIAMS. 52 YARD TD!

📺: #LARvsDET on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/T7wgLF9pcF

— NFL (@NFL) September 9, 2024

The Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Chicago Bears this offseason. They hired John Morton from the Denver Broncos to replace Johnson, giving him his first job as an offensive coordinator in eight years. More importantly, Detroit plays seven games outdoors after playing three last season. Goff plays significantly better indoors. Therefore, he is vastly overvalued at his current ADP.

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers – ADP 131.25 | QB17

Love had high expectations last year. He finished the 2023 season as the QB5, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game after ranking second in passing touchdowns (32) and seventh in rushing scores (four) among quarterbacks. However, the former Utah State star regressed last year, ending the season as the QB17, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game, and throwing 25 touchdowns.

Green Bay added two wide receivers during the NFL Draft, including Matthew Golden, in the first round. However, Christian Watson will likely miss most of the year recovering from a torn ACL. More importantly, Josh Jacobs is still the focal point of the offense. Last season, he had a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns. Unfortunately, Love’s fantasy upside is limited if Jacobs remains healthy.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Sleeper Target Candidates to Draft

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP 139.33 | QB19

Many believe the Jaguars will have the most improved offense in the NFL this year after an aggressive offseason. Therefore, Lawrence is one of my favorite sleeper candidates in redraft leagues. Last year, he struggled with injuries and a dysfunctional offense, ending the season as the QB27, averaging 14.5 fantasy points per game.

Thankfully, Jacksonville hired Liam Coen as its head coach this offseason, improved the offensive line in free agency, and traded up in the NFL Draft for Travis Hunter. Don’t be surprised if Lawrence has a breakout season under Coen like Baker Mayfield did last year after the Jaguars drastically improved his situation.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings – ADP 149.42 | QB20

McCarthy is the ultimate wild-card fantasy quarterback. He had little experience in college as the starter and missed his entire rookie year because of a knee injury. However, the former Michigan star is on track to play in Week 1, making McCarthy one of my favorite sleeper candidates for the 2025 fantasy season.

The Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, adding three new starters this offseason. Furthermore, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson give McCarthy an excellent trio of weapons in the passing game. While it’s high praise, don’t be surprised if the former Michigan star has a Patrick Mahomes-lite second year in the NFL because of his supporting cast.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – ADP 200.01 | QB25

While Richardson still has to win the starting job, the former Florida star has more upside than any quarterback with an ADP outside the top 12, making him undervalued as the QB25. Unfortunately, he struggled as a passer last season, completing only 47.7% of his attempts. However, Richardson averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game over his final five contests.

Furthermore, he averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie despite leaving two contests early. More importantly, Richardson can put up high-end QB1 fantasy numbers despite being a subpar passer. Last year, he had six rushing touchdowns despite missing six games, ranking third among quarterbacks. Richardson will be a massive steal at his current ADP if he wins the starting job and has league-winning upside.

WOW. Anthony Richardson with the truck-stick TD 💪

📺: #INDvsNYJ on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/ckY85OazuX

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

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