RADIO
Tommy Bell's weekly deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire for Week 20 (2024).
Welcome back to another week of Unlikely Aces. We are nearing mid-August, which for some might mean the beginning of fantasy football prep, but for others means the beginning of fantasy baseball playoffs prep. For those die-hard managers heading down the home stretch, finding a late-season arm on the waiver wire could make all the difference.
Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.
Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!
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Zack Littell, Tampa Bay Rays
21% Rostered
Littell has been a fairly consistent arm all season for the struggling Rays, and while he has the upside of throwing a five-inning shutout in the mix once in a while, we've also seen a few five-run outings as well. A less-than-stellar strikeout rate has kept him on most waiver wires so far this season.
Since the start of July, we've seen the right-hander throw four strong outings allowing one run or less while pitching five innings or more. But, just as he has throughout the season, he's mixed in two hiccups, allowing five and seven earned runs respectively. Is there reason to think more good is coming than bad moving forward?
Zack Littell, 95mph Paint. 🖌️🎨
5th K pic.twitter.com/x63OBysKYb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 14, 2024
A few key metrics tell us that Littell has pretty much settled into a groove this season, and not much will change. The 28-year-old actually dropped in strikeout rate to just 7.02 K/9 in his last six starts. That pairs with a slightly elevated 1.92 HR/9 rate and a 4.22 xFIP that is a few ticks higher than his season-long number of 4.02.
In short, while a few strong outings may make us think that Littell has turned a corner as we quickly cruise to the end of the 2024 MLB season, those long balls and high-hit outings are still coming back to bite him, and it's tough to know exactly when those days are coming. A strong matchup at home would be the only time I'd consider using Littell, but even then we can't expect the strikeouts to ever be a bonus from the Rays' back-end starter.
David Festa, Minnesota Twins
10% Rostered
After showing massive strikeout upside in the minor leagues, Festa was called up by the Twins at the end of June to try his hand in a major league rotation. Things were shaky in his first two outings, but the right-hander has bounced back nicely in his most recent three starts.
Home runs were an issue when Festa first arrived, as he allowed four round-trippers in 10 combined innings. But since then the 24-year-old has allowed just two homers in his last three starts, a combined 14.1 innings pitched. Most importantly for fantasy baseball managers, though, Festa has carried his strikeout stuff to the big leagues, as he's rung up 22 hitters over his last three starts, bumping his K/9 rate to 11.1 in this small sample size.
The best news of all might be that Festa sports a 3.36 xFIP compared to his 5.55 ERA. The 2021 draft pick out of Seton Hall has allowed just two barrels since his two poor starts to begin his MLB career, so pairing that improvement with his strikeout stuff gives reason for optimism.
David Festa flashed his immense potential today:
5 IP 2 H 0 R 2 BB 9 K
14 whiffs and 35 CSW%🔥Looks like a future number 2 in a rotation👀
pic.twitter.com/2hkvH6ZAIT— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) August 6, 2024
A mid-90s fastball with zip and some devastating breaking balls provides plenty to work with in the youngster's repertoire. As he starts getting a longer pitch count leash (just 82 pitches in his last start), we could see Festa provide really valuable starts in August and September when fantasy managers need them most. Pick him up if he's still available in your deeper leagues.
DJ Herz, Washington Nationals
8% Rostered
Herz is in a very similar boat as Festa, but he does have twice as many major league starts to this point with 10. The lefty's strikeout rate wasn't quite as high as Festa's at the Triple-A level, but that hasn't stopped him from posting an impressive 11.46 K/9 thus far in DC.
Herz's breakout start came in mid-June, during his third career outing, when he struck out 13 Marlins through six shutout innings, allowing just one hit and no walks. He followed it up in early July with a one-run outing against the Mets, strikeout out 10 and allowing just one solo homer among four other hits. The 23-year-old has yet to eclipse the 6.0-inning mark but don't let that stop you from picking him up before you finish reading this breakdown...
While the walks are a bit high for Herz at 2.53 BB/9, the normal .305 BABIP and deflated 73.8% strand rate to go with a minuscule 17.7% line drive rate have resulted in an excellent 3.48 xFIP. The sole warning sign for the southpaw is a 38.9% hard-hit rate, but he's able to turn nearly 47% of those into high fly balls. He might lose a few more than others to the long ball, but so far the numbers suggest he's toeing the danger nicely.
DJ Herz is quickly becoming one of my favorite Nationals the guy is nasty pic.twitter.com/gjzXLEIhlq
— Talkin Nats (@TalkinNats) July 28, 2024
There's tons to love about Herz so far, as he continues to lean even more heavily on his swing-and-miss fastball along with a nasty slider and high-usage changeup. The Nationals have no reason not to give him all the starts he could ask for down the stretch, as they find out if the 2019 eighth-round draft pick has what it takes to be a pillar in their rotation in 2025.
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