Running Back Fantasy Football Risers - Positive Yardage Regression Candidates (2024)

July 27, 2024

Aidin Ebrahimi identifies fantasy football RBs who could finish with more scrimmage yards in 2024 than 2023. Which RBs should fantasy managers potentially target in later rounds?

Many people have claimed that the 2023 NFL season was a down year for QBs, but saying that 2023 was a down year for RBs might be more accurate. Teams went from 27.3 rushing attempts and 121.6 rushing yards per game in 2022 to 26.8 attempts and 112.7 rushing yards per game last season.

The decline in efficiency was also apparent. It went from a record-breaking 4.5 yards per attempt in 2022 to 4.2 yards per attempt in 2023. The last time we had an average rushing YPA of 4.2 or fewer was in 2017. So, we can expect an increase in overall offense and rushing stats. 2024 has the potential to be one of the best fantasy seasons ever, as many players can regress positively and record tons of fantasy points.

Without further ado, let's look at four running backs who could have more scrimmage yards in 2024 than they had last season. RBs who played less than 10 games last year will not feature.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens

It almost feels cliché to say that Derrick Henry will have a bounce-back 2024 season. However, there are still a bunch of naysayers out there (probably some Titans fans or fans of AFC North rivals) who pretend that Henry is "washed." Yes, Henry had arguably his worst season last year. He averaged career lows in yards per attempt (4.2) and yards after contact per attempt (2.1).

But the situation last season in Tennessee was far from ideal. The Titans had arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL, new offensive coordinator Tim Kelly did a terrible job, and they had a poor quarterback situation with a washed-up Ryan Tannehill and a rookie Will Levis. Tennessee also gave 100 touches to Henry's rookie backup, Tyjae Spears, as it knew Henry already had one foot out the door.

Gus Edwards had 13 rushing TDs on 198 attempts last season for the Ravens.

Derrick Henry has had 6 years in a row with double digit rushing TDs. And he accomplished that w/ the WEAK Titans offense‼️

He’s about to go CRAZY on the Ravens offense 🚀🔥
pic.twitter.com/lD6BJJygSm

— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) July 9, 2024

Now, let's look at his situation in Baltimore. His quarterback is the reigning 2023 NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson. He will also benefit from a new-look offensive line. The Ravens had one of the best offensive lines last year, and although they've lost a few starters, they still have world-class O-line coach, Joe D'Alessandris.

Last year, I raved about D'Alessandris when I wrote about Lamar Jackson's quest for a bounce-back season. He proved me right despite losing Ben Powers to Denver, so I do not doubt that he can train a competent unit in 2024.

Young RB2 Keaton Mitchell still hasn't recovered from his ACL tear and won't be ready for Week 1, which will only boost Henry's touches. He is also one of the most durable RBs in the league and will get many opportunities in the red zone, as Jackson isn't obsessed with red-zone TDs like Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs finished as the 2022 rushing leader and hoped to get a big extension from the Raiders. However, he was franchise-tagged and then offered a one-year, $12 million contract. Jacobs bet on himself and accepted the deal, but struggled in 2023. The Raiders had one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and it was clear that Jacobs' heart was no longer in it.

The Raiders' play-calling was extremely predictable with Josh McDaniels in charge, an issue that was fixed when Antonio Pierce became the interim head coach. Unfortunately, Jacobs only managed to play three healthy games with Pierce in charge. In those three games, Jacobs averaged 88.3 yards per game and finished as the PPR RB5 in Week 12.

“The sky is the limit in this offense.” @iAM_JoshJacobs is ready to show the world what the @packers are going to do in 2024 😤 pic.twitter.com/UNl3QjoIPL

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) July 3, 2024

However, he suffered a quad injury late in a game against the Vikings, ending his season. Jacobs is now in Green Bay, where he will benefit from one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The Packers offense is also dynamic with the presence of Jordan Love and their handful of electric, young receivers. Jacobs will also have more motivation, having signed a long-term deal with the Packers that will keep him in Green Bay until the end of the 2027 season.

Remember, Jacobs faced an average of 7.2 men in the box last season. Defenses simply cannot do that against Love. Expect Jacobs to have a dominant 2024 season that will have him in contention for the 2024 Offensive Player of the Year.

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson had an awesome 2022 season, recording 1,461 yards from scrimmage. However, he was limited by injuries and lost a fair amount of his touches to Ezekiel Elliott in 2023. The 2023 Patriots were arguably the worst team in the league, with a stagnant offense led by Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe and an even worse coaching staff with Bill O'Brien and a 71-year-old Bill Belichick. But now, the team looks fresh and exciting with new faces like HC Jerod Mayo, OC Alex Van Pelt, and QB Drake Maye.

There are still some issues like an unproven offensive line, but Stevenson's fantasy outlook looks very promising. RBs like Eddie Lacy and Nick Chubb have had their best seasons alongside Van Pelt, and he can get the most out of Stevenson's talents, too. Stevenson can also rack up receiving yards due to New England's lack of receiving talent.

Rhamondre Stevenson was third in RB targets with 83 in 2022. Different regime I know, but today’s extension implies he’s a bellcow.

Pats offense was historically bad in 2023. I wouldn’t bump Stevenson up more than a few spots, but you can feel better drafting him now.

— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) June 20, 2024

He's probably the best player on the offense right now, so expect Maye to check it down to him a bunch of times throughout the year. Stevenson also has little to no competition in the RB room, and he can be a classic workhorse back with tons of volume.

Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys

Speaking of Ezekiel Elliott, he's back in Dallas now and is currently projected to be the RB1. However, head coach Mike McCarthy told reporters that the Cowboys will go with a RB-by-committee approach. This is good news for Rico Dowdle, the only real notable running back in the current RB room. He recorded 505 yards from scrimmage last season playing behind Tony Pollard. He might be injury prone, but he has less mileage on his legs compared to Elliott.

Dowdle is a solid pass-catcher, too. Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush had a passer rating of 124.1 when targeting him. He's perhaps too weak and inexperienced to be trusted in red-zone situations, so he can be used for most of the game and only be replaced in red-zone or third-and-short situations.

#Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle is in the lab 🧪

The 5th-year back is currently the team’s leading rusher and coming off a career season.

Dowdle had 505 total yds, 4 TDs, and a PFF elusive rating of 59.1 in 2023 (25th best among RBs)

(🎥: @ricodowdle on IG) pic.twitter.com/XXq7hav6SO

— Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite) April 13, 2024

Elliott's return to Dallas has been a romantic tale, but he doesn't have what it takes to be a bell-cow back in 2024. Players like Pollard, Felix Jones, and Marion Barber III have succeeded in Dallas when used in a RB-by-committee system, so it's not too far-fetched to imagine Dowdle succeeding as well.

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