RADIO
There are some weeks in the NFL season that you simply can't overreact to, and Week 6 was absolutely one of them. We had the 49ers losing to Atlanta, Tampa Bay losing to Pittsburgh, the Ravens blowing another fourth-quarter lead, and Bailey Zappe setting NFL rookie records. When it comes to fantasy football defenses, the top three finishers this week were the Jets, Seahawks, and Cardinals who I'm not sure were on many top-10 lists. We also had the Falcons finish as a top-10 defense against the 49ers, and the Jaguars, who came into the weekend as the 7th-ranked fantasy DST, put up -1 points against a Colts team that didn't have Jonathan Taylor.
It was a bit chaotic this week, and I was lucky to get five of the top 10 defenses right. The Bills finished just inside the top ten, and the Eagles landed tied for 10th, which is a good indication that the elite defenses are still playable in pretty much any week. The Rams also finished 7th despite people clamoring to make them a top-tier unit, which is a good example that we don't want to elevate defenses too high just because of the matchup. The Rams were a good top-ten pick this week, I had them 8th, but they hadn't been playing well enough to assume they would smash Carolina.
However, my biggest regret is that I didn't trust the numbers on the Jets. They came into the weekend ranked 8th in my BOD rankings, and I wasn't really a fan of this Packers team, but I simply didn't believe in the Jets. I couldn't trust that the defensive performance I had seen up until Sunday was for real, so they came in ranked 14th for me. Obviously, we know now that they smashed, and would have been a great play for anybody on Sunday. Sometimes we have to trust what the numbers tell us when the sample size grows to five or six games like this.
As a reminder, every week I do a YouTube DST video called Pick 3(DST) where I give you three defenses I like during the week and one that I'm fading. We have some fun with it, but I think it gives a lot of the same reasoning I present here, so check it out for some video fun. And my BOD Leaderboard is available on Public Tableau, where you can see my updated BOD rankings, plus a leaderboard for the individual defensive stats I use for the BOD formula, and some of the offensive stats that I think can help us determine which DST to play or not. Also, make sure to always check back with this article over the weekend because I will my updated rankings as the week goes on when we get injury news or troubling weather information, etc.
What is the BOD Ranking Formula?
Last year I introduced my Best Overall Defense (BOD) rankings formula, and I'll be using it again this year. I'll give a quick overview of the formula below, followed by my general strategy for streaming defenses, and then my Week 7 fantasy football defense (DST) rankings. Good luck in Week 7 everyone!
The BOD (Best Overall Defense) formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula. You can view the RANKINGS AND COMPLETE LEADERBOARD of all the stats I use here. I tweaked the formula as the season went on last year, and I feel like it gives us a pretty good indicator of who has the best defenses for fantasy purposes. If you don't want to click that link, the formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Break-Ups) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(Missed Tackles)+ (% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. In 2021, NFL offenses gained 343.6 yards per game and scored 23.0 points per game. While that's down from the 24.8 scored in 2020 (most likely because of the deep safety defenses), it's still the third-most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Season Record
30-30 correctly predicting top-10 defenses
I want to track how correctly I pick the top-10 this year, so I'll keep track using FantasyPros total points. If anybody has other suggestions, let me know.
Week 7 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. This is the best way to see just how much I like one team over another. Not all one or two spot differences are the same.
A zero means "do not start," and then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
Tampa Bay dropped the ball on Sunday against the Steelers, but it wasn't really the defense's fault. Yes, they allowed Mitch Trubisky to drive down the field for a touchdown, but their loss was more on the offense's inability to score. On the season, the Bucs defense is 3rd in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score, 3rd in tackles for a loss, 3rd in sacks, and 3rd in yards allowed per play. They now face a Carolina team that allowed the Rams to finish as a top-ten defense. Robby Anderson has already yelled at the coaches and been traded, and we have no idea if Christian McCaffrey will still play for Carolina by Sunday. Even if he does, I think we can trust the Bucs to get back on track. FRIDAY UPDATE: McCaffrey was indeed traded, landing in San Francisco. I know anything can happen on any given Sunday, but this Panthers offense does not look like one that is going to threaten to do much of anything this weekend.
Dallas held their own against the Philadelphia offense. It wasn't a tremendous defensive performance from a fantasy perspective, but they kept their offense in the game and sacked Jalen Hurts four times. Now they get the far less mobile Jared Goff and a Lions team that will be coming off the bye but hasn't quite lived up to the preseason hype. This offense still has dangerous pieces, and D'Andre Swift might also return, but this Dallas defense just took on a Super Bowl contender and looked fine, so I'm not too worried about the Lions stopping Micah Parsons and company.
It's time to trust the Patriots. I've been slow to adjust, and that's my bad. This team looked pretty inept the first few weeks, and I assumed that would continue, but this defense has come to play lately, and Bailey Zappe might be better than Mac Jones. OK, fine, it's a small sample size alert. This New England defense now ranks 8th in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score, 11th in pressure rate, 9th in sacks, and 6th in turnover rate. They'll go up against a Bears offense that allowed the Commanders to finish as a top-five defense this week, so the Patriots are in a smash spot.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets. It's time we give this defense some respect. Robert Saleh was an elite defensive coordinator in San Francisco and he now has the pieces coming into place in New York. They were pretty banged up last year, but Sauce Gardner is a legit cornerback, and this defense now ranks 9th in turnover rate, 8th in pass breakups, 7th in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent's score, and 6th in yards allowed per play. This Broncos team has been atrocious on offense and now Russell Wilson might be out, so I'm not worried about firing up the Jets' defense this week.
However, I also think the Broncos are also playable. Yes, the Jets hung 27 points on the Packers and 40 on the Dolphins, but a lot of that was because of Breece Hall and the defense. Zach Wilson did not look particularly good this Sunday, and I think he could be in for a rough game against a strong Broncos defense. If the Broncos can get Randy Gregory back in time for this game, they will be able to get lots of pressure on Wilson with Gregory and Bradley Chubb, and I've yet to be convinced Wilson has the pocket presence to succeed against consistent pressure. This is a Broncos defense that is 4th in sacks, 5th in tackles for a loss, and 2nd in yards allowed per play, so it's been a stingy unit for most of the year, despite the struggles of the offense.
Yes, I have the Jaguars this high still. Yes, last week was a disaster. I don't regret putting the Jaguars as high as I did because the process made sense. They had been really strong on defense. The Colts' offensive line had been a disaster. The Colts were without Jonathan Taylor, and Matt Ryan had looked like a shell of himself in the first five games. Obviously, that didn't work out on Sunday, but this Jaguars' defense is still solid enough for me to consider them a back-half of the top ten option against a Giants team that has some offensive line issues and major injuries still in the receiving corps. Even when the Giants are winning these games, it's not with massive offensive outputs, so I think the Jaguars can hold them to the low 20s and pick up a few sacks and maybe a turnover or two, which is good for a solid floor game.
The last two weeks I urged you not to move the Packers so high up in your rankings. They just aren't a great defense, and the Jets' and Giants' offenses aren't as bad as the narratives suggested. Well, the Packers were not a top-ten defense in either of the last two weeks, but this week I think they will be. Washington is by far the worst defense the Packers have played over the last three weeks, and now Carson Wentz is hurt. Even though I'm not entirely sure Taylor Heinicke is a downgrade, and his added mobility may help prevent a few sacks. Still, the Packers absolutely need to win this game, so I think they come out fired up and get after this poor offensive line.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
However, much like with the Jets/Broncos game, this Commanders' defense is also playable. The Packers currently give up the 4th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses. The offseason decision in Green Bay to replace Davante Adams with two rookie receivers in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and nothing else was always a strange one, and it's taken a massive bite out of this offense. This offense has also allowed the 12th-most sacks and 13th-most turnovers, so it's been a pretty average unit for much of the season. This Commanders' defense is 4th in sacks, 7th in tackles for a loss, and 3rd in pressure rate, so they will put some pressure on Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.
I'm nervous about ranking the Cardinals this high, but they did a good job against a solid Seahawks offense, and the Saints remain banged up. Michael Thomas has already been ruled out, and both Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston are questionable on a short week. Chris Olave will be back, which is big news for the Saints, but this is still the team that gives up the 3rd-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so the Cardinals could put up another top-ten week this weekend.
The Colts' offense carried them to a victory on Sunday, but it wasn't an overly impressive performance by the offense. Still, this is a defense that's 4th in tackles for a loss, 6th in the percentage of opponents' drives that end in a score, and 8th in yards per play, so it's a solid unit. They usually don't get a lot of sacks and turnovers, which limits their ceiling, but I think they're a back-end top-ten defense against this Titans offense that really only has Derrick Henry.
This Titans defense has been even worse than the Colts, but they've had two weeks to prepare for this incredibly important AFC South showdown, so I think Mike Vrabel is going to have this defense ready. I expect Jonathan Taylor back, but I don't buy this one-week performance by Matt Ryan, and the Colts still give up the second-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, which makes the Titans a fringe top-ten play.
The 49ers are battling some injuries, which keeps them down here in a tough matchup with the Chiefs. We know Emmanuel Mosley and Jimmie Ward will be out for their secondary, which is a big loss against Patrick Mahomes, but we're also not sure if Nick Bosa will return from his groin injury. If he does, I could see moving the 49ers up a bit. SATURDAY UPDATE: Nick Bosa and Jimmie Ward are expected to play. Remember that the Bills finished as a top-ten DST against Kansas City last week, and this 49ers defense was playing just as well before the injuries. They're a deep-league option.
The Steelers' defense got lit up by the Bills two weeks ago, but really responded on Sunday against the Bucs. Now they play a Dolphins team that will likely get Tua Tagovailoa back, which makes me think people will avoid the Steelers' defense. However, the Dolphins' offense has the 7th-highest turnover rate in the NFL and has given up the 9th-most sacks, so there are still avenues to score points against them as a fantasy defense. The Steelers still rank 7th in turnover rate, so they can capitalize if the Dolphins make a mistake. I'm not overly excited about them, but this is basically just a deep league ranking.
The Giants, Bengals, and 49ers are all deep league relevant. I honestly thought I'd have the Bengals higher, but the Falcons are so run-heavy that they actually allow the 10th-fewest points per game to opposing fantasy defenses. They are 16th in sacks allowed on the season but 9th-worst in the NFL in turnover rate, which is where the Bengals can score some points, but the Bengals' defense is just 15th in turnover rate. Based on last week, I'm a little gunshy on the Bengals and would prefer to play the Giants, who are 10th in pressure rate and face a Jaguars offense that feels a bit overrated to me.
You can play the Dolphins if you want, I know some people have them inside the top 12, but they've shown me nothing as a defense that suggests we can trust them in fantasy right now. Pittsburgh gives up the 9th-most fantasy points to opposing fantasy defenses, so they're a good matchup, but they're not a truly atrocious offense. It also seems like they'll get Kenny Pickett back, and I think he can move the ball against this Miami secondary. I know it's risky to fully fade Miami this week given the consensus, but if I'm wrong then so be it, I just can't trust this DST right now.
I'm similarly tepid on the Ravens. I know this Browns offense did nothing against the Patriots, but they still give up the second-fewest points per game to opposing fantasy defenses, and the Ravens' defense has just looked average so far this year. I can see them being a deep league play, but I can't move them into the top-ten right now.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 7
Why do people keep ranking the Saints in the top 10? They haven't scored more than six fantasy points in any game all season. I don't understand this.
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