NFL Betting Picks for Week 4 - Best Bets, Expert Odds and Predictions

September 30, 2022

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season. His free picks target the under, over and against the spread.

We fell an extra point away from a 2-0 week last Sunday. The Detroit Lions offense has proven to be very capable thus far, despite some underlying stats that hint to me it isn't sustainable (aka going 3-for-16 on third down). The Panthers' defense bailed out another weak offensive performance by Baker Mayfield and co. but good teams win and great teams cover and the Panthers accomplished both for us.

I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.

• 2022 Record: 4-4, -0.08 units
• Spread: 1-0, +1 unit
• Total/Team Total: 2-3, -1.26 units
• Moneyline: 1-1, +0.18 units
• Props: 0-0

Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Week 4 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday 10/2, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 49.5

Cleveland has been thriving on the ground game with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to an NFL-leading 190.7 rushing yards per game. Jacoby Brissett has been more than serviceable in his game manager role, but the offense is definitely displaying a ground-and-pound game plan. They have one of the lowest pace-per-play numbers in the league making this a relatively boring team, but they can put a team out of a game.

The defense has been very solid with not much to show for it. The garbage time blowup against the Jets was a fluke and shutting the Steelers' offense down isn't quite hard to do, but Myles Garrett is back in the mix. Their 23rd rank in DVOA isn't a great number but through three weeks, I expect this unit to improve.

This is a unique Falcons lineup. Marcus Mariota is a starting quarterback again with a 31-year-old Cordarelle Patterson at running back and incredibly inexperienced receivers. Yet, they've managed to score at least 26 points in all three games and eclipsed 380 yards of offense in two of three games. They're inside the Top 10 of yards per play with 5.9 ypp, yet they have one of the slower-paced offenses in the league. There is regression coming to this offense.

On the defensive end, not much has changed in recent years. They allow 6.0 ypp and have given up over 330 ypg in the first three weeks. By DVOA they're ranked 24th overall and 27th against the run, which puts them at a huge disadvantage against this Cleveland offense.

I think we finally get a slow week for the Atlanta offense, while Cleveland will continue to ground out their offensive game plan. This total has dropped a bit since I got my number, but with two of the slowest-paced offenses in the NFL with below-average quarterbacks and with average-at-best receiving corps, it screams low scoring to me.

Pick: Under 49.5 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

Week 4 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday 10/2, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 51

Buffalo is fresh off a very bad and fluky loss to Miami in Week 3. They've totaled 400 total yards on offense in every game so far, including at least 290 yards of passing and over 100 yards on the ground. Josh Allen has thrown for over 1,000 yards with nine touchdowns while adding 110 rushing yards. His duo with Stefon Diggs alone makes this offense one of the best in the NFL as evidenced by their 6.2 yards per play (tied 4th in the NFL).

Defensively, Buffalo has been hit badly by injuries. Guys like defensive backs Jordan Poyer, Dane Jackson, and Ed Oliver are questionable. And yet, the team allows just 4.1 ypp and around 15 first downs per game, and both stats are Top 3 in the NFL. While the Ravens' offense is a much different test than they've faced, this unit is no slouch.

Lamar Jackson hasn't made things easy on the Ravens' front office, who doesn't seem to want to pay him what he's worth. He's thrown for over 700 yards with an NFL-leading 10 touchdowns. Add in 243 rushing yards and two more scores, and this is one dynamic player. We all know this. With Jackson at the helm, the Ravens lead the NFL in yards per play with 6.9, a full half yard more than the second team. They await the full return of J.K. Dobbins to take some hits off of Jackson, but even then, this is the LJ8 show.

On the defensive end, this is not the Ravens units of old. They allow an NFL-worst 458 yards per game (6.5 ypp) and have given up 68 points in the last two weeks alone. Several starters haven't practiced as of this writing, including Marcus Peters (knee) which doesn't bode well in a game against Buffalo. By DVOa, they're one of the worst run defenses and are middling against the pass. One thing in their favor is the eight turnovers they have forced through three games, which is tied for most in the league.

I know it's easy to look at these two offenses and think, "oh man, that game screams to hammer the over." Which in most cases means you should go the other way. However, when you look at how these teams are built and the injuries both sides are dealing with on defense, I think this listed total is just a touch too low. Both teams are capable of putting up 40 points weekly and granted some wet weather from the dwindling hurricane doesn't tamper too much with conditions, I think this one goes over.

Pick: Over 51 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

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Week 4 NFL Betting Picks - Spread

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Sunday 10/2 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 41.5

The Washington Commanders are doing about as well as people expected when they heard Carson Wentz was going to be their new quarterback. In their first two games, they almost eclipsed 400 yards thanks to close games against other bad teams, but in Week 3, they only mustered 240 yards and eight points against the Eagles. While Wentz has a great receiving corps, Antonio Gibson isn't a workhorse back to take pressure off Wentz, which pinches the unit to be one-dimensional.

Defensively, the Commanders have one of the better sack rates at just under 9% and Chase Young isn't even playing yet. Though if you consider DVOA, their run defense (16th) has been slightly better than the pass (28th).

The general public still doesn't trust Cooper Rush and while I understand that, who can argue with his performance so far? A 63% completion rate with 2 touchdowns and over 514 yards as a "game manager" is a great start for an upside offense. He fed CeeDee Lamb like the WR1 that he is in Week 3. His ability to spread the ball around combined with a great offensive line gives the running game a chance to open up (5.9 ypc in Week 3).

Dallas' defense is in a spot to thrive against Washington and Wentz in Week 4. The Commanders have displayed the league's worst pass protection which allows Dallas' pass rush to put Wentz under pressure yet again. With continued pressure brings mistakes and that's something The Washington signal-caller is very prone to. Dallas averages 4.3 sacks per game and while they have just two turnovers in 2022, they're in a great spot to add more this week.

I won't admit to being comfortable backing a Cooper Rush-led Cowboys team, but this is a sum-of-the-parts move. Dallas holds an advantage in almost all facets, sans the Commanders receiving corps being better. Dallas giving three points in Jerry's world seems like a fair number in a divisional game of which the Cowboys have covered 8 times in 13 NFC East games under Mike McCarthy. Though keep in mind they're 5-9 ATS as a home favorite, so there is some risk if you're a trends bettor.

Pick: Dallas -3 (-106, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

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