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Joey looks at five starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2026. Are Stephen Kolek, Andre Pallante, Shane Drohan, JR Ritchie, Rhett Lowder for real?
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another week of breakout pitchers. Each week of the fantasy baseball season, we dive into five pitchers on the verge of breaking out and determine whether these potential breakout pitchers should be added or left on waivers.
Last week, we analyzed pitchers like Walbert Urena, Gage Jump, Troy Melton, and Brandon Young. This week, we will look at five more potential breakout pitchers. All five pitchers on this list are currently trending up and have posted solid numbers on the mound in recent weeks. These five pitchers are also all rostered in 40% or fewer of Yahoo! leagues.
So, should fantasy managers look to add these five starting pitchers before they continue their breakout season? Let's find out.
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Stephen Kolek, Kansas City Royals
36% Rostered
Kansas City Royals pitcher Stephen Kolek has been on an unreal stretch on the mound recently. He has a 1.59 ERA over his last six starts and has allowed two runs or fewer in five of these six outings. Some of his top performances during this stretch include a nine-inning complete-game shutout against the Mariners on May 23 and a 7 1/3 scoreless-inning gem against the Astros, his last time out on Sunday.
Kolek's ability to pitch deep into games and maintain a low ERA lately has him trending up in all fantasy leagues. His fastball remains his best pitch, with an 88th percentile Fastball Run Value (6), and he's done a great job limiting free passes with a 5.1% walk rate. The Royals right-hander also owns an elite 1.03 WHIP in his eight starts this season.
Stephen Kolek starts the 1-4-3 double play to end the 7th! pic.twitter.com/1Qj4Z5aci5
— Royals.TV (@kcroyalstv) June 14, 2026
Now, there are concerns about Kolek that raise some red flags. His 26.6% chase rate, 21.1% whiff rate, and 17.2% strikeout rate all rank in the bottom 20% of the league, and his 9.2% swinging strike is below-average. Those poor swing-and-miss numbers could prevent him from fully breaking out and being that consistent fantasy option the rest of the season.
However, Kolek is still worth adding in some 12-team leagues. His 3.41 expected ERA is respectable, he's inducing groundballs at an above-average 47.7% rate, and his 6.6% barrel rate ranks in the upper half of the league. The 29-year-old could be a solid source of ERA and WHIP moving forward. Just don't expect many strikeouts each outing.
Andre Pallante, St. Louis Cardinals
25% Rostered
St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante is enjoying a breakthrough campaign following a rough 2025 season. Pallante currently has a 3.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP across 76 2/3 innings pitched this year. The 27-year-old has also been even better over the past month, as he owns a 2.86 ERA and 29 strikeouts in his last six starts dating back to May 17.
Pallante has really been a surprising fantasy option recently. He has thrown a quality start in four of his last six outings and is coming off another strong outing on the mound on Tuesday against the Padres. The Cardinals right-hander threw seven innings of two-run ball with six strikeouts while earning his third straight win in June.
Like Kolek, it is hard to fully believe in Pallante given his poor swing-and-miss stuff. He has a 19th percentile chase rate (27%), 34th percentile whiff rate (22.8%), and a 27th percentile strikeout rate (18.8%). Pallante owns a below-average 9.1% swinging swing rate as well.
Still, he's worth a look in some leagues if you don't mind the low strikeout numbers. His expected ERA (3.80) is right around his actual ERA (3.76), and his ground-ball rate (52.4%), pull AIR rate (11.8%), barrel rate (6.7%), average exit velocity (87.9 mph), and expected batting average against (.231) all rank in the upper half of the league.
Pallante is a pitcher who's going to induce a ton of groundballs while limiting a lot of contact in the air. He isn't a must-add by any means, but he's been good enough lately to roll with.
Shane Drohan, Milwaukee Brewers
15% Rostered
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Shane Drohan has operated as both a starter and a reliever in his first year with the team. The southpaw had a 2.63 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings pitched as a long reliever in the first two months before moving to the rotation in early June. While the consistency hasn't necessarily been there as a starter, Drohan continues to show some encouraging things on the mound.
He threw 6 1/3 innings of three-run ball with four strikeouts against the Rockies at Coors Field on June 7 and then struck out a career-high seven batters across five innings against the Phillies his last time out. With Drohan set to make another start on Thursday against the Guardians, he's worth a look in some formats.
Shane Drohan graded out as the best-located starter last night at a 117 proPitching+, even with four earned runs on eight hits. Yamamoto was right behind at 114 and backed it up: 8.1 innings, one hit, seven punchies. pic.twitter.com/nlUapweHnj
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) June 14, 2026
The potential is there for Drohan to fully break out. He currently owns a 2.98 expected ERA, .224 expected batting average against, 34.4% chase rate, 29% whiff rate, 24.9% strikeout, and a 6.2% walk rate across 42 2/3 innings pitched. All six of those metrics rank in the upper half of the league. The southpaw also owns an above-average 12.9% swinging strike rate.
That's enough reason to take a chance on Drohan in some 12+ team leagues.
JR Ritchie, Atlanta Braves
7% Rostered
Atlanta Braves' No. 2 prospect JR Ritchie will fill Spencer Strider's spot in the rotation. Ritchie was called up last week to be a part of the Braves' bullpen and looked solid in his one relief appearance on June 12. The right-hander replaced the injured Strider in that game and threw five scoreless innings with two hits, two walks, and five strikeouts.
Ritchie will now head to Atlanta's rotation, where he had some solid outings earlier this year. He tossed seven innings of two-run ball with seven strikeouts in his MLB debut on April 23 and threw 5 1/3 innings of two-run ball with four strikeouts against the Tigers on April 29. While the 22-year-old did have some command issues in his first stint in the big leagues, he did a good job limiting free passes in his relief appearance last week.
JR Ritchie, Painted 83mph Curveball. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/pzI3RTOxTZ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 23, 2026
Even though Ritchie could stay in the Braves' rotation for the foreseeable future, given Strider's unclear timeline, he's only worth a look in deeper leagues right now. The walks are a serious problem for him, and his limited swing-and-miss stuff makes him a questionable fantasy option moving forward. He has a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 13.6% walk rate in his 30 2/3 innings pitched in the majors this season.
If he can somehow improve his walk rate, Ritchie could eventually emerge into must-add territory.
Rhett Lowder, Cincinnati Reds
7% Rostered
Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Rhett Lowder has thrown the ball well for the most part since being activated off the injured list. He delivered three scoreless innings with one walk, five walks, and four strikeouts against the Cardinals on June 7 and threw 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball with two walks and six strikeouts against the Diamondbacks on Saturday.
Outside of the five walks in his first start back, Lowder has been consistent on the mound in his return. He hasn't allowed much hard contact and struck out his second-most batters in a game (six) this season in his most recent outing. That definitely puts him on some fantasy radars in deeper 15+ team leagues.
However, Lowder shouldn't be anything more than just a streamer for now. His expected batting average against (.262), average exit velocity (90.4 mph), chase rate (24.6%), whiff rate (20.9%), strikeout rate (17.9%), and walk rate (12.1%) all rank in the bottom 25% of the league, and his 7.8% swinging rate is extremely poor.
He's someone fantasy managers shouldn't look to pick up, even in deeper leagues. There isn't much potential here with a below-average walk rate, strikeout rate, and swinging strike rate.
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