2024 College Football Playoff Picture, Projections, Outlook (November Update)

November 1, 2024

We are nine weeks into the college football season. What does the new 12-team college football playoff bracket look like at the end of October? Mike Marteny takes a look.

Most teams are eight games into the 2024 season. If you thought the arguments about a four-team playoff were exhausting, just wait until you see the chaos that could happen this year. The ACC could blow up the 12-team playoff before it even gets off the ground!

Whereas September's playoff picture had a modicum of clarity, that is mostly gone one month later. The super conferences are proving how utterly dumb of an idea they are. Hey, we college football fans already knew this. The greedy people that run this sport are always behind the fans. We think in terms of a product that we want to see. They think in terms of what will give them the most money. We are not the same.

This new playoff system ushers in a new era of college football. I have been openly critical about this, but I hope I am proved wrong. I fear that once the novelty of all of these wild conference games wears off, we will be left with an unimportant regular season and a 32-team playoff. You know they're not stopping at 12. The apocalypse could happen in Year 1.

College Football Playoff Overview

First, we should explain how it works. There are five automatic bids to the playoff. The five highest-ranked conference winners are all in automatically. That will be the Power Four conference winners plus the next-highest-ranked conference champion.

Since the Pac-12 isn't a conference again (yet), Washington State and Oregon State will be treated as independents. The top-four-ranked teams will be given a first-round "bye."

BREAKING:

The CFP has just approved the 5+7 12-team playoff model.

5 highest-ranked conference champions + 7 highest-ranked at-large teams will get a spot.

The 2024 CFP will have one less automatic qualifier and one more at-large spot than the previously proposed 6+6 model. pic.twitter.com/Q0tQAcZ4J1

— Sidelines - Bama (@SSN_Alabama) February 20, 2024

That leaves seven at-large playoff teams. Again, we will have a committee to choose these teams. Those seven teams plus the other conference champion will play in the first round. Those games are held at the home stadium of the higher-ranked team.

This will be an exciting time for those teams. Honestly, I have always thought that the college football playoff games should be at on-campus stadiums instead of cavernous ready-made bowl stadiums. Can you imagine a playoff game at Neyland Stadium, even if Tennessee wasn't involved? That's a way to keep things interesting!

College Football Playoff Automatic Bids

ACC: 

Clemson, Miami, Pitt, and SMU are all undefeated in the conference. Miami is undefeated overall. The ACC is where it gets messy. Pitt is the only one of those four teams who controls its destiny. Pitt plays SMU and Clemson. Clemson doesn't play SMU or Miami. We'll cover this more later. Right now, it's Miami with the auto bid.

Big 12 (14):

BYU and Iowa State are still undefeated. BYU's win over Kansas State and SMU out of conference will keep it ahead of the Cyclones right now.

Big Ten (18):

Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana are undefeated. Oregon gets the auto bid thanks to the big win over Ohio State. Penn State enters the conversation if it knocks off the Buckeyes on Saturday.

SEC:

The SEC is a disaster. Alabama beat Georgia. Georgia beat Texas. Texas A&M is the only undefeated team in the conference, so it is in. That's easy. The at-large is not.

At-Large Champion:

Is it an undefeated Army or Boise State? Boise nearly beat Oregon in Eugene, so I think it has to go to Boise. Besides, it will be a travesty if Ashton Jeanty isn't in this first expanded playoff.

College Football Playoff At-Large Bids

We still have 14 other undefeated teams that aren't already in. Not all of them can get in. Also polluting the water is the plethora of one-loss teams that also might deserve a shot.

ACC:

If Clemson, SMU, and Miami all win out, what happens? They don't have head-to-heads in common at all thanks to the massive unbalanced conference schedule. Who plays for the ACC Championship? It's not measured by the highest ranking. It's measured by the opponent's win percentage in the conference.

That would put SMU against Miami and Clemson would be left out. Say SMU beats Miami. You have Miami and Clemson against each other and Clemson's loss to Georgia would be better than Miami's. Would a Clemson team that didn't make the conference championship game get in over Miami? We know the ACC isn't putting three teams into a 12-team playoff.

That's a nightmare for another day. Right now, Pitt is the at-large. It is undefeated! Sorry, Clemson. The conference schedule is awful. The ACC tiebreaker proves it.

Big 12 (14): 

Iowa State is still the at-large right now. Colorado and Kansas State can make things interesting, but we're only going by what has happened so far.

Big Ten (18):

Penn State and Indiana both have a claim right now. Penn State beat Illinois. Indiana hasn't even trailed this season. Ohio State's only loss is to the top-ranked Ducks on the road by one point. The Big Ten is convoluted right now and the situation won't clear up much in the next month.

SEC: 

Here is where it gets messy. Georgia has to be in despite the loss to Bama. Texas's only loss is to Georgia, but its schedule is leaving much to be desired. Alabama lost to both Vanderbilt and Tennesee this year. Does that keep it out?

Both Tennessee and LSU have fewer conference losses than the Tide, but LSU lost out of conference to USC. That's a bad loss right now. With four one-loss SEC teams, we probably don't need to visit the two-loss teams yet for this exercise.

Those pesky teams that won't join a conference:

Yes, we're not talking about Wazzu here, even though it is ranked. This is Notre Dame. Does a one-loss Notre Dame team make it in over a two-loss SEC team? That loss to Northern Illinois looks bad. The win at Texas A&M looks good and the Irish are piling up style points by running up the score.

Hey, I don't blame them and I don't have a problem with it. College football doesn't care about sportsmanship and hasn't in decades. The only ones who do are the coaches, but they all understand that you have to do what you have to do when it comes to style points.

What I came up with for the seven at-large teams: Texas, Georgia, Clemson, Iowa State, Penn State, Indiana, and Pitt.

College Football Playoff As Of November 1

Byes: Oregon (1), Miami (5), BYU (9), Texas A&M (10)

Other automatic qualifier: Boise State (15)

At-large teams: Georgia (2), Penn State (3), Texas (6), Clemson (11), Iowa State (11), Indiana (13), and Pittsburgh (18).

Realistically, some form of UT, Bama, the other UT, and UGA will hold spots 1, 5, 6, 7

OSU, ORE, PSU will probably be 2, 8, 9

Given that scenario, i still would rather be the 5 seed playing a G5 champ then the B12 champ

As opposed to having a bye, then playing ORE or PSU

— #RunItUpJ (@TVGuy_JR) October 3, 2024

Do I think that the ACC and Big 12 (14) are getting two teams in? It's unlikely, given the strength of schedule advantage that the SEC and Big 10 will hold. However, those two conferences can throw a wrench in the whole thing. I already touched on the apocalyptic ACC scenario that could play out.

The Big 12 will be interesting with Farmageddon on the last day of the regular season. BYU's schedule was tough early, but the last four games are against Utah, Kansas, Houston, and Arizona State. Three of those four are dead in the water. The other is the Holy War. Throw out the records for that one. If BYU loses and K-State wins out, this is going to be another disaster.

These super-huge conferences are an issue. They will be the death of the 12-team playoff in a matter of three years or less. Texas plays Texas A&M. Tennessee plays Georgia. Alabama plays LSU in an actual regular-season playoff game. They're a dying breed. If Texas beats A&M and Tennessee beats Georgia, chaos ensues for everyone but Texas.

If you thought whittling the field down to four was tough (it wasn't ... 2023 was the only year of the four-team playoff where it could have been necessary), wait until you see the arguments over 12! I don't know about you, but I would rather be arguing over which one-loss team deserves a shot over arguing about which three-loss team deserves a shot.

We are still college football fans, so we will argue over whatever they tell us to argue about. We should have a clearer picture emerging by the time the next article comes out at the end of the regular season. Until then, happy arguing!

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