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Nick's picks, bets, and analysis for January 24 in NCAA College Basketball. Nick identifies some high-profile matchups and various spots to bet on during Wednesday's college basketball slate.
Now securely into conference play, we're seeing intense matchups all across the college basketball world. Wednesday brings us one of the most exciting weekdays of the year with several clashes near the top of each conference.
In this article, I preview an SEC matchup between Auburn and Alabama along with a Big 12 clash between Kansas State and Iowa State.
I will also give out my favorite betting angle for each matchup. Let's get into the picks!
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Auburn at Alabama
Coleman Coliseum (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
An excellent high-leverage SEC clash is coming to Tuscaloosa today. Auburn sits in the top 10 of both the AP and Coaches Poll, while Alabama is outside of the top 25. The Crimson Tide, however, are one of the most battle-tested teams in the country, already having played seven Quad 1 games and ranking second in Haslametrics' “Schedule Strength” rating. They’re also an analytical darling, ranking in the top 13 of all four major college basketball sites.
Injuries
Alabama’s star point guard Mark Sears sprained his ankle last week but played through the injury to finish with 22 points in their recent loss at Tennessee. He was a little hobbled, but I’d expect Sears to be close to full strength in this contest.
Auburn star big man Johni Broome injured his knee last Wednesday against Vanderbilt, but head coach Bruce Pearl said he is “fine” and it appears to only be a bruise. Broome also played in Saturday’s contest, scoring 13 points in a win over Mississippi. It appears both teams will be near full strength in this matchup.
Matchup Comparison
Both offenses prefer to play at a blistering pace, which should allow plenty of back-and-forth shotmaking and an exciting game inside of a crazed arena. Nate Oats and the Tide’s famed “pace and space” style of play allows them to shoot the three at the 17th-highest clip nationally, where they’re also 13th in three-point percentage. There is a bit of style contrast here because Auburn is a middling team in terms of threes given up; however, they’re 19th in defensive three-point percentage. I believe this is an area where Auburn may regress in a tough road spot.
Alabama’s biggest weakness was on display in Knoxville this past weekend when they totaled 22 turnovers at a horrific 28.5% rate. The visiting Tigers are an above-average defensive team in the turnover department, making this an area of concern if Nate Oats' team wants to escape with a win. 
image courtesy of Barttorvik.com
Along with some shooting regression for the Auburn defense, the Crimson Tide just might be able to get a leg up in the rebounding department. On the surface, both teams are slightly more aggressive offensive rebounders compared to the defensive glass. However, the Tigers' numbers are slightly inflated by lesser competition. Alabama has faced Ohio State, Purdue, Creighton, and Arizona, some of the best rebounding teams in the nation.
The Bet
I’ll be taking the Tide at -2 or better here. Ultimately, I believe there is some regression looming for an Auburn team that’s played very well but hasn’t faced the toughest schedule yet. If Alabama is going to win, they need a healthier Mark Sears to take care of the rock. I will back them at anything under one possession.
Kansas State at Iowa State
Hilton Coliseum (9:00 PM ESPN2)
Jerome Tang and the Kansas State Wildcats are one of the luckiest 14-win teams this year, with five overtime victories and ranking #52 in KenPom’s “Luck” ranking. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 247th in that same metric while also entering this game 307th in Haslametrics' “Momentum” metric. These two numbers represent a good buy-low/sell-high spot for both teams. K-State travels to Ames after back-to-back tight home victories while the Cyclones return home after a loss at BYU and a one-point win at TCU.
Matchup Comparison
There are a few dramatic splits here, mostly favoring the home Wildcats. First, Kansas State ranks 259th in three-point percentage. Iowa State does give up a large number of three-point attempts but is one of the best defensive teams in all of college hoops, only allowing opponents to shoot 33% from behind the arc. They’re also excellent at denying paint touches, which will force a mediocre shooting team into more and more jump shots as the game wears on.
The largest discrepancy, however, comes in the turnover department. T.J. Otzelberger and the Cyclones rank number one in the country in turnover rate at an outstanding 26.7% rate. Jerome Tang’s Wildcats have struggled in this department, ranking 338th nationally while turning the ball over at a 21.1% clip.
The Bet
ISU starting guard Tamin Lipsey sat out their last contest with a shoulder injury and remains questionable for this game. He’s kind of the straw that stirs the drink, so I’m monitoring his status closely. While this is a great spot to back Iowa State, I am interested in the opening number here. Anything under eight is probably a play despite Lipsey’s status. Closer to a 10-point spread and I’m willing to wait for a full report.
Year-to-Date Record
59-49 +3.77u
Follow me @DrRoddy_ on Twitter/X for all of my official college basketball bets. Best of luck if you tail. Let’s find some winners!
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