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Today we will be checking out whether some tight ends and wide receivers will go boom or bust in 2016 fantasy football. There's nothing better than nailing that draft pick, and watching them produce like studs for your fantasy teams. At the same time, drafting a dud can bury your fantasy teams early in the year.
Make sure to target the right ones in all your drafts and lineups.
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Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Wide Receiver Booms and Busts
Matthews is a favorite among quite a few people in the fantasy community. However, his ADP really hasn’t taken that much of a step forward, and more of a step back since last year, partly due to his minor injury (he just returned to practice). His ADP currently sits at WR31 in PPR formats, falling to the 6th round, where I’m seeing tremendous value.
Matthews has scored 8 touchdowns both years he’s been in the league, and his targets, receptions, and receiving yards have all increased as well. Matthews has a great rapport with Sam Bradford, and he’s extremely likely to be the focal point of the Eagles offense yet again. I see him as a high upside WR2 you can grab as a WR3, with huge potential in PPR formats.
Verdict: Boom
I’m still keeping Parker as a hold in dynasty formats, but for now I’m going to avoid Parker at his relatively high ADP of WR 39 at 8.04. Add in his preseason injuries, and his current hamstring issue, and this seems way too high. Some teams are drafting Parker to play their flex spot, but it doesn’t appear he’s even won a starting job on his own team yet with Kenny Stills having a very good preseason, minus his minor injury. Stills is no slouch, as he was a very strong WR4 just 2 years ago.
Even if Parker does start in 3 wide sets, he’s going to have trouble out-targeting Jarvis Landry and even Arian Foster if he’s healthy. I just don’t see much upside here just yet in a Dolphins attack that is limited by a quarterback that struggles throwing the ball downfield. I’d rather grab Snead, Funchess, Thomas, Sharp, Dorsett or a few others in the later rounds, who are all likely to finish ahead of Parker this year.
Verdict: Bust
A lot of people were let down by Dorsett’s rookie year. He wasn’t a very large part of the offense, and he missed the majority of the year with a broken leg. However, reports out of Colts camp have been glowing, and he’s had a few strong showings in the preseason as well. With a first round pedigree along with a near guaranteed starting job in the Colts three wide formation, it’s easy to see why Dorsett could destroy his WR 58 ADP.
The Colts lost Andre Johnson and Coby Fleener this offseason, and Dwayne Allen has struggled with health his entire career. It wouldn’t shock me if Dorsett became a solid flex value play with WR2 upside if either Hilton or Moncrief were to miss time. He’s the exact kind of upside you draft after your roster is filled out. Luck should throw for close to 4500 yards, and I’m expecting anywhere between 700-900 going to Dorsett.
Verdict: Boom
Tight End Booms and Busts
This was a tough one for me, but I had to find a top 6 guy that I thought wouldn’t meet expectations, and Walker seems more likely than any other player on there other than Reed if his health doesn’t cooperate. Walker saw a pretty absurd 133 targets last year, good for 19th in the NFL (including wide receivers), in just 15 games.
Even if Walker keeps up his average efficiency numbers (11th in YPC for tight ends with 30 or more catches), I expect those target totals to decline enough to seriously dent his value. The Titans have a much improved rushing attack along with the addition of two capable starters in Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe outside. I seriously doubt Walker can match his reception total from last year, which makes me think he will finish closer to a lower-end TE1 than anything else this coming year.
Verdict: Bust
Another tough one. Gates is 36 years old and has struggled with injuries the more his career has progressed. However, his situation is just something I can’t ignore. When Gates did play last year, he still looked spry, and he was a major part of their red zone offense which hasn’t improved that much this year other than the return of Keenan Allen. I fully expect Rivers to heavily rely on Gates anytime they get within the 20, especially with Gates so close to Tony Gonzalez’s touchdown record. At his TE11 price and an ADP of 9.10, I’d happily wait for Gates if I miss out on Gronk or anyone else you were targeting earlier. He should have some huge games for year even if he struggles with inconsistency. Gates was the #7 TE in PPR formats this past year in points per game.
Verdict: Boom
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