X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Who Is the #1 Pick in 2022 Fantasy Football?

Derrick Henry - Fantasy Football Rankings NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Pierre Camus determines which players to target as the #1 overall pick in 2021 fantasy football drafts.

The 2021 fantasy football season is over, but that doesn't mean we are done analyzing the game. The 2022 draft season will be here before we know it.

One of the biggest questions that fantasy managers need to have answered is more confusing than in recent years. Who should be the number one overall pick on draft day?

There are arguably several candidates worth considering but we'll narrow it down to four for now. Here are my top choices and reasoning as to why they should or should not be the number one overall pick.

Editor's Note: Access RotoBaller’s trusted fantasy football rankings for PPR, Standard, Dynasty, Super Flex, and Best Ball formats. Get tiered cheat sheets, expert analysis, and player outlooks to dominate your draft from every angle.

 

Should Austin Ekeler Be the #1 Pick?

Not even a consensus first-round pick last season, Ekeler has stated his case strongly for consideration at the top of the draft board. Following Week 17, when most fantasy football seasons have wrapped up, he was second out of all players in total fantasy points scored and third on a point-per-game basis.

The knock on Ekeler heading into 2021 was that he didn't score enough touchdowns. In his first four NFL seasons, he hadn't scored more than three rushing touchdowns in a single season and found the end zone a total of three times in 2020. He flipped the script in 2021, as he couldn't avoid crossing the goal-line nearly every week. Ekeler has 18 TD and could add to that total in the final week of the season. The issue this brings up is regression in a critical category.

I was vehement that Davante Adams would not be able to score 18 times again as he did in 2020. Sure enough, despite having another great campaign, he only has 11 TD through Week 17. Touchdowns are a hard category to predict and not one that should be a determining factor when it comes to projecting fantasy value.

The pros certainly outweigh the cons when it comes to Ekeler. He isn't a traditional workhorse back who will see 250+ carries in a season, although he could cross the 200 mark in the final game. His work as a receiver actually makes him more valuable in PPR formats, though. He is tied to a strong offense with a young star QB in Justin Herbert, so the floor is as high as any player on this list.

 

Should Derrick Henry Be the #1 Pick?

On the one hand, injuries happened to a ton of running backs this year and Henry should be fine entering the 2022 season. On the other hand, many people can say they saw this coming. A running back who goes over 300 carries in consecutive years, coming off a year where he nearly garnered 400 total touches and then was averaging even more touches through the first half of 2021 (29.6 touches per game) was bound to break down at some point. Sure enough, he did.

Henry's injury was a Jones fracture in his foot. According to University of Michigan Health, one main cause is "repeated stress on the bones of the foot." Sounds accurate.

The risk of his workload being scaled down is slim to none based on what we've seen from Tennessee's offensive scheme and their dependence on Henry. The risk of re-injury is another matter. This must be weighed against the injury risk for every other RB in the league, since completely healthy young players can have their season ended in a moment's notice during training camp.

Before his season-ending incident, Henry was averaging 24.2 PPR points a game. That still ranks first among all running backs and second among all players. The upside to be the top player in fantasy is clear because that's what he was doing up until Week 8. Concerns of him not catching enough passes or seeing touchdown regression can be laughed away but the spectre of another injury will always loom. Plus, there is one player who will finish the year with a higher fantasy PPG average than Henry...

 

Should Cooper Kupp Be the #1 Pick?

Let's get the first point out of the way - Kupp has to be the WR1 next year. He wasn't just the top-scoring fantasy receiver in 2021, he was the WR1 by a significant margin with 80 more points than Davante Adams.


He will still be in the same offense with breakfast buddy Matthew Stafford. It's unclear whether Odell Beckham Jr. will be around in 2022 and Robert Woods will be recovering from an ACL tear.

The debate comes down to whether a receiver should go first instead of a running back. Many drafters who were burned by CMC or any number of RB busts may be tempted to go Zero RB or wait until round two or three before taking their first runner. I wouldn't blame them either. Kupp was the real league winner of 2021 and is a far safer pick than any running back could ever be.

The only real question in regard to Kupp's ceiling is whether he can remain at such a high level. Surely, at some point defenses will try to take him away and force Stafford to throw to his second or third option. Right?

What if the return of Cam Akers combined with a highly-effective Sony Michel lead the Rams to run the ball more? OK, that won't happen but it must be accepted that Kupp isn't 100% guaranteed to see 184 targets. Plus, drafting a WR first just feels weird. But it might be the best move.

 

Should Jonathan Taylor Be the #1 Pick?

Here's the chalk. JT is most likely going to be the top pick in early drafts and could cement that status with a big postseason performance, assuming the Colts even make it. He was Mr. Consistent, not falling below 50 rushing yards once all season and gaining over 100 yards on the ground seven of the last eight weeks.

Then there are the 20 touchdowns buoyed by a league-high 83 red-zone attempts. We discussed touchdown regression earlier in regard to Austin Ekeler but Taylor's usage near the goal-line is so insanely high it's doubtful he doesn't reach at least 15 TD next year. Here's what the red-zone rushing leaderboard looked like this year, courtesy of AddMoreFunds.com:

Taylor plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the game on a team with a run-first mentality backed by a solid defense. Carson Wentz is never going to turn into a gunslinger, nor is coach Frank Reich going to let him. Taylor is the lynchpin of this offense and he was exactly that for fantasy teams in 2021. But can he do it again or will he wear down from a 300+ carry season?

 

Honorable Mentions

Dalvin Cook was far from disappointing this season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 108.4 scrimmage yards per game. Except that he didn't play in Week 16 and gained 16 yards in Week 17, effectively becoming useless at the most important point of the season. Alexander Mattison filled in quite well during the four games that Cook missed which brings up two problems: Cook missed time with injuries and he has a pretty good backup. The Vikings have gone all in with Cook when he's healthy but might choose a different approach to keep him fresh, especially if a new coach is brought in next season. He's worth a first-round pick but shouldn't be a top-three selection.

Najee Harris is the dark horse candidate that I might wind up taking second overall in PPR leagues but there are too many questions left unanswered at this time to put him in serious discussion for number one overall. The O-line in Pittsburgh is a mess, which is why he only rushed for 4.0 yards per carry. While Ben Roethlisberger retiring may ultimately be good for this offense, especially Harris, we have no idea who will be behind center and how that will affect the team. Harris was the fantasy RB3 due to volume; he was second in rush attempts and first in targets at the position. His stock should only go up but we need to see what happens in the offseason before putting all our eggs in that basket.

Alvin Kamara won a lot of leagues in 2020 by tallying 1,688 scrimmage yards and scoring a league-high 21 touchdowns, especially since six of them came in championship week. He was solid in this year's fantasy finale, totaling 100 yards with a score, but it followed two straight duds to cap off a year of inconsistency and a four-week injury absence. Kamara always has a high floor due to his receiving skills but this offense wasn't the same without Drew Brees and may never be again.

Davante Adams was only the WR2 because Kupp szn happened. He could reclaim the throne as the top receiver in fantasy but that's only if Aaron Rodgers returns. If not, Adams either sees a huge drop in value with Jordan Love as his quarterback or he takes his talents elsewhere like Vegas. If you were nervous at all about drafting him last summer, just wait until this draft season when Rodgers leaves us all hanging.

Is it possible that Christian McCaffrey is the league-winner we've been looking for? His injury isn't as severe as Henry's but the real issue is that McCaffrey has now piled up various ailments over the last two years and missed a lot more time than expected. Carolina is also due for an interesting offseason as antsy ownership may ditch the Matt Rhule experiment and/or chase Deshaun Watson. C-Mac may be QB-proof or coach-proof but he's now proving to be injury-resistant. Most of all, we just can't go through the pain all over again after this year.

 

The #1 Pick Is...

Sometimes the obvious choice shouldn't be questioned. Taylor is the most risk-free of all these choices and that's exactly what you should strive for in fantasy football, especially in these trying times. Amid a slew of early-round busts in 2021, be it due to injury or poor performance, fantasy GMs were lucky to scrap together a team that had even half of the players they originally drafted by season's end. Sure things like Christian McCaffrey, bounce-back candidates like Saquon Barkley, and budding young stars like Cam Akers (if you were unfortunate enough to draft early in the preseason) left teams wishing they had gone a different direction early in the draft.

We can never predict injuries but it's definitely smarter to count on a player who doesn't have an extended injury history. Taylor also has the workload in his favor, favorable team context and scheme, as well as youth. You could argue that Derrick Henry has a higher ceiling



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF