September 20, 2017

Pierre Camus' Week 4 fantasy football rankings analysis for the 2017 NFL season. He compares his rankings to industry consensus for QB, RB, WR, TE.

We're now starting to get a feel for what 2017 is bringing to the table. It isn't always appetizing, but at the very least it's always interesting. The highly vaunted RB rookie class is delivering in spades and reshaping the fantasy fortunes of many teams. In other words, it's time to throw those ADP lists out the window (not literally, that's littering and you'll get a ticket for that). Let's use our knowledge of defensive matchups and player trends to make some projections that might buck the industry standard. That's how RotoBallers do!

As an expert ranker for RotoBaller and FantasyPros, I'll put my own personal rankings out on the table for you here and show you how they stack up against the consensus of the other 100+ experts at FantasyPros. Each week, I'll list my Top 10 per position, plus a few notable players that have risen or fallen in my rankings more than the expert consensus this week.

Note: all rankings are for standard leagues and all opinions are my own. If you have questions, comments, or nothing better to do in the last five minutes of your lunch break, hit me up on Twitter @pfunk00 to continue the weekly rankings conversation.

Week 4 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

What's Andy Dalton doing in there again? I'm really not a Bengals fan by any means, but this matchup can't be ignored. When the Browns are in town, the opposing team's offensive coordinator must grin from ear-to-ear (that goes the same for games played in Cleveland, by the way). While I'm not playing him over those top eight QBs, I think he could be a substitute for Derek Carr or Philip Rivers this week.

I also like Carson Wentz to jump back up to QB1 status this week against a depleted Chargers secondary without Jason Verrett. The loss of Darren Sproles and absence of any reliable pass-catcher in the backfield could force Wentz to look downfield more often.

I'm banking on repeats from Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer, although I can't say I'm completely confident in it happening from such unreliable pass offenses with horrible offensive lines.

I can't bring myself to rank Derek Carr quite so low, although I know it's Denver on the road. Although they've limited yardage big time, they did allow Philip Rivers to toss three scores in Week 1. I wouldn't put Carr as my QB1 if I had a better option, but I don't think he's an absolute must-bench either. They will have to fall back on the passing game at some point and he is not a turnover machine, despite how he looked last week.

I am not trying to hate on Marcus Mariota, but on a team that has two quality running backs who are apparently back at full health, the ceiling isn't quite there for a big passing day and Houston still presents a tough matchup. You can throw last week aside - Tom Brady will make any secondary look foolish. As you'll see later on in my rankings, I think the Cowboys-Rams game is a lot closer than people think. It won't be a shootout, so Prescott's ceiling also gives me pause.

Week 4 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

I came oh so close to making Kareem Hunt my No. 1 RB this week, but couldn't do it. It's all because of @rotobuzzguy so blame him. Zeke looks just fine and faces a Rams D-line that knows how to rush the QB, but not how to stop the run. They've allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season (six) and fourth-most rushing yards (417). Todd Gurley isn't too far behind in what could be a showdown between workhorse backs. Melvin Gordon's #10 ranking is based on health - he'll play this week but it's not certain if he's 100% and knee injuries are always tough to swallow for a running back.

I've been higher on Jordan Howard than most experts ever since 2016 ended. I even went at length to defend his RB1 status against @MitchellRenz365 in the preseason RB Risers and Fallers podcast. If his shoulder is fine, which it appears to be, he'll be in my top 10 nearly every week.

I'm not the only one picking Joe Mixon to come up big against the Browns this week, but apparently I'm expecting more of a breakout than others. He totaled 100 yards in his first taste of a RB1 role last week, so he should smash that in Week 4.

Someone that isn't expected to produce good numbers by anybody is Mr. Obese Kelley a.k.a. Fat Rob a.k.a. Washington's lead RB. The coaches have come out and said that Chris Thompson will not see a rise in carries, as he's needed for passing downs. Samaje Perine may not ever leave the doghouse after another fumble and poor performance. Mack Brown isn't a threat to take the starting job, so as long as Kelley is healthy, he's got great upside. The Redskins rank sixth in rushing yards per game and the Chiefs have given up some big plays on the ground. That's a recipe for victory if you sneak Kelley into your flex spot.

For the same reasons I'm high on Howard, I'm a bit lower on Cohen. Keep in mind, these rankings are based on standard league scoring, but in PPR I have him about 10 spots higher and so should you. I may be second-guessing Lamar Miller this low, but I don't like gravitating toward low-ceiling players. LeGarrette Blount has a much greater chance of reaching the end zone than Miller, even if he sees a dozen less touches per game.

Week 4 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

This will possibly be the last time I have A.J. Green as my top overall WR as well, but it's a no-brainer that he has the best matchup of all these receivers. I think Michael Thomas puts himself in the same tier as the other elites at the position with a huge game overseas. The Dolphins' duo of Byron Maxwell and Xavien Howard are highly toastable on any given play.

DeVante Parker may still be underrated at this point in the season. He currently ranks ninth in total air yards, even though he's only played two games! 19 targets in two games is also a great sign. I don't care how high Ken Crawley graded out last week against Carolina's poor receiving corps, give me Parker versus the Saints any day. I also think Maclin is getting slept on after grabbing a touchdown in each of his first two weeks. It was a disastrous week all around for the Ravens, which included a head injury for Maclin, but the team will be passing a lot to keep up with Pittsburgh and I anticipate a high target total.

Tyreek Hill scored on a big play last week and Travis Kelce was quiet, so they're bound to flip-flop this week, right? I'm not giving up on Dez Bryant, but I'll wait until the schedule (in terms of pass defense at least) softens before considering him in the top 20 again. Likewise with Amari Cooper - Denver isn't the time or the place.

Week 4 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

I like Jordan Reed this week... if he actually plays. If you own him and he's in the starting lineup, you have to play him. Although this isn't a DFS article, I'll put my two cents in to say that he could a strong play in cash games if he goes as expected. I'm also holding out hope for a Hunter Henry bounce back, although I don't foresee much success for the Chargers this Sunday in general. At the tight end position, you're mainly looking for touchdown potential anyway, especially in standard leagues, and he'll always have it.

I probably should have Clay and Graham higher, but there's a trust factor missing here. I don't trust the offense in Buffalo to put up points away from home and I don't trust Graham's health enough to make him a TE1. By the time this article goes live, Martellus Bennett will undoubtedly have disappointed us all with another lackluster performance. Can't say I didn't warn you, even if it is after the fact.

More Week 4 Lineup Prep