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Week 16 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions


Another two Saturday games this week so make sure you have those lineups set. It would be criminal to lose your final because you forget about those two games until it is too late! This week is all about trusting your gut if you are in the championship game. If you got here you have likely made smart decisions all season, and while all the information we offer can help, ultimately you have to do what you believe in. In DFS then your format dictates what you columns you are looking at below. In 50/50 type tournaments then the consistency is important but in GPP then ceiling is your key column.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

Good luck this week for those of you in those championship game and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holidays!

Editor's Note: Get any rest-of-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive DFS Tools, Lineup Optimizer and Premium DFS Research through the Super Bowl. Sign Up Now!

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 14 375.5 26.82 7.3 19.53 34.12 0.27 125.44
2 Philip Rivers 14 266.6 19.05 3.73 15.31 22.78 0.2 116.18
3 Josh Johnson 2 35.2 17.62 3.79 13.83 21.41 0.22 99.53
4 Aaron Rodgers 14 270.7 19.33 5.62 13.71 24.96 0.29 85.81
5 Matt Ryan 14 310.1 22.15 8.04 14.12 30.19 0.36 83.23
6 Russell Wilson 14 265.1 18.94 5.65 13.28 24.59 0.3 82.35
7 Ben Roethlisberger 14 295.6 21.11 7.52 13.59 28.63 0.36 80.4
8 Andrew Luck 14 279.8 19.99 6.97 13.02 26.96 0.35 77.29
9 Cam Newton 14 278.6 19.9 7.01 12.89 26.91 0.35 76.43
10 Tom Brady 14 252.7 18.05 5.91 12.14 23.95 0.33 73.2
11 Deshaun Watson 14 277.3 19.81 7.87 11.94 27.67 0.4 69.67
12 Baker Mayfield 12 196.1 16.34 5.12 11.22 21.47 0.31 68.45
13 Carson Wentz 11 202.3 18.39 7.02 11.37 25.41 0.38 66.56
14 Kirk Cousins 14 258 18.43 7.41 11.02 25.84 0.4 64.29
15 Alex Smith 10 140 14 4.01 9.99 18.01 0.29 62.92
16 Nick Mullens 6 96.8 16.13 5.94 10.18 22.07 0.37 59.89
17 Dak Prescott 14 245.7 17.55 7.41 10.14 24.96 0.42 59.13
18 Joe Flacco 9 139.2 15.47 5.51 9.96 20.98 0.36 58.91
19 Drew Brees 14 286.9 20.5 11 9.5 31.49 0.54 58.7
20 CJ Beathard 5 81 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
21 Eli Manning 14 203.4 14.53 4.86 9.66 19.39 0.33 57.92
22 Jimmy Garoppolo 3 46 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick 8 165.8 20.73 12.47 8.26 33.2 0.6 55.2
24 Andy Dalton 11 174.5 15.87 6.66 9.21 22.52 0.42 53.7
25 Mitchell Trubisky 12 238.8 19.9 12.05 7.85 31.95 0.61 52.75
26 Case Keenum 14 190.4 13.6 4.81 8.79 18.42 0.35 52.04
27 Jared Goff 14 269.1 19.22 11.29 7.93 30.51 0.59 51.96
28 Jameis Winston 9 153 17 8.89 8.11 25.9 0.52 49.52
29 Derek Carr 14 218.9 15.63 7.36 8.27 23 0.47 48.83
30 Matthew Stafford 14 197.1 14.08 6.16 7.92 20.24 0.44 46.27

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 15 weeks from largest to smallest. This week is often a case of trusting who got you to this point. If you are in the finals of your league it is extremely unlikely you are now going to pivot and look elsewhere unless you are desperate.

Josh Johnson has been a nice surprise for Washington fans but for fantasy players, he remains essentially useless, especially with a tough matchup. My biggest concerns this week are Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, who are both facing incredibly good defenses right now. If you have an option to pivot that you feel OK about I may do it with those two.

The trouble is there is not a lot further down the rankings that I feel great about. A lot of teams have played defense harder to end the season and there are not so many gimmes at this stage. Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum have the best matchups of players outside the top-10. Mayfield is probably owned and there is no way I can trust my season to the hands of Keenum on a Monday night in Oakland.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Melvin Gordon 10 247.5 24.75 5.76 18.99 30.51 0.23 131.04
2 Todd Gurley 14 369.1 26.36 8.11 18.26 34.47 0.31 112.11
3 Saquon Barkley 14 341.9 24.42 8.04 16.39 32.46 0.33 98.64
4 Christian McCaffrey 14 346.7 24.76 9.61 15.15 34.37 0.39 88.58
5 Ezekiel Elliott 14 319.3 22.81 8.22 14.58 31.03 0.36 86.06
6 Alvin Kamara 14 321.7 22.98 11.1 11.88 34.08 0.48 70.56
7 James Conner 12 267.6 22.3 10.72 11.58 33.02 0.48 68.68
8 Joe Mixon 12 223.9 18.66 7.21 11.45 25.87 0.39 66.94
9 Kareem Hunt 11 231.2 21.02 9.85 11.17 30.87 0.47 65.87
10 James White 14 248.3 17.74 8.99 8.75 26.73 0.51 52.73
11 David Johnson 14 225.2 16.09 7.6 8.49 23.68 0.47 50.14
12 Alex Collins 10 115.6 11.56 3.5 8.06 15.06 0.3 49.75
13 Phillip Lindsay 14 215.1 15.36 6.98 8.38 22.35 0.45 49.18
14 Marshawn Lynch 6 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
15 Kerryon Johnson 10 142.4 14.24 6.2 8.04 20.44 0.44 46.94
16 Devonta Freeman 2 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
17 Tarik Cohen 14 225.5 16.11 9.43 6.67 25.54 0.59 43.61
18 Dalvin Cook 9 132.2 14.69 8.19 6.5 22.88 0.56 41.03
19 Darren Sproles 4 35.6 8.9 2.5 6.4 11.4 0.28 40.58
20 Chris Carson 12 161.9 13.49 7.1 6.4 20.59 0.53 39.15
21 Theo Riddick 12 109.6 9.13 2.8 6.33 11.94 0.31 38.89
22 Leonard Fournette 7 104.3 14.9 9.97 4.93 24.87 0.67 37.17
23 Lamar Miller 13 163 12.54 6.4 6.13 18.94 0.51 37.08
24 Aaron Jones 12 173.5 14.46 9.32 5.14 23.78 0.64 36.89
25 Marlon Mack 10 147.5 14.75 10.47 4.28 25.22 0.71 35.53
26 Kenyan Drake 14 188.3 13.45 8.25 5.2 21.7 0.61 35.37
27 Austin Ekeler 13 161 12.38 7.01 5.37 19.4 0.57 34.26
28 Mark Ingram 10 126.9 12.69 7.61 5.08 20.3 0.6 33.86
29 Adrian Peterson 14 180.3 12.88 7.98 4.9 20.86 0.62 33.66
30 TJ Yeldon 14 177.1 12.65 7.63 5.02 20.28 0.6 33.63
31 Tevin Coleman 14 176.1 12.58 7.52 5.06 20.1 0.6 33.61
32 Matt Breida 13 160.9 12.38 7.79 4.59 20.16 0.63 32.05
33 Jay Ajayi 4 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
34 Jalen Richard 14 141.7 10.12 4.86 5.26 14.98 0.48 31.2
35 Jordan Howard 14 142.6 10.19 4.95 5.23 15.14 0.49 31.13
36 Dion Lewis 14 151.9 10.85 6.74 4.11 17.59 0.62 28.32
37 Kenneth Dixon 4 36.7 9.18 4.49 4.68 13.67 0.49 27.92
38 Nick Chubb 14 179 12.79 11.07 1.72 23.85 0.87 27.56
39 Nyheim Hines 14 141.7 10.12 6.38 3.74 16.5 0.63 26.18
40 Sony Michel 11 118.5 10.77 7.63 3.14 18.4 0.71 25.98
41 Peyton Barber 14 137.9 9.85 6.05 3.8 15.9 0.61 25.9
42 Isaiah Crowell 13 142.7 10.98 8.46 2.52 19.44 0.77 25.22
43 Derrick Henry 14 175 12.5 12.48 0.02 24.98 1 25.02
44 Bilal Powell 7 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
45 Jeff Wilson 4 41.7 10.43 7.81 2.62 18.23 0.75 24.35
46 Elijah McGuire 6 57.2 9.53 6.15 3.38 15.68 0.65 24.31
47 Ito Smith 13 97.7 7.52 3.52 3.99 11.04 0.47 23.55
48 Chris Thompson 8 80.4 10.05 8.91 1.14 18.96 0.89 21.39
49 Javorius Allen 11 95.7 8.7 6.03 2.67 14.73 0.69 21.26
50 LeSean McCoy 12 109.9 9.16 6.96 2.2 16.12 0.76 21.21

Injuries are starting to ravage the position as the season wears on and actually fresher guys have been the way to go more recently. I do expect a big bounce back from Elliott and Barkley after they had quiet games last week. McCaffrey should see plenty of the ball early in that game with Newton out but how much they want to expose him is a concern.

Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray look a nice pairing in Minnesota with someone different calling the plays and both could be useful championship winners this week. Marlon Mack is another guy I am trusting this week after a big week for Derrick Henry against that defense last week.

Ultimately though you have to go where you feel comfortable and decide what will haunt you more. This is an inconsistent position at the best of times but this late in the season even more so. If a blip from your stud is less annoying to you than a bad day from a gamble then go that way. If you are happy taking the gamble to live a little dangerously and would be more annoyed if you played safe then that is the way to go here.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Davante Adams 14 303.5 21.68 5.36 16.32 27.04 0.25 109.4
2 Julian Edelman 10 169.4 16.94 4.09 12.85 21.03 0.24 87.04
3 Antonio Brown 14 279.2 19.94 6.14 13.8 26.08 0.31 84.7
4 DeAndre Hopkins 14 296.4 21.17 7.85 13.32 29.02 0.37 78.25
5 Julio Jones 14 291.2 20.8 7.66 13.14 28.46 0.37 77.3
6 Adam Thielen 14 288.3 20.59 8.2 12.39 28.8 0.4 72.28
7 Odell Beckham Jr 12 223.1 18.59 6.86 11.73 25.45 0.37 69
8 Keenan Allen 13 238.9 18.38 7 11.37 25.38 0.38 66.6
9 Robert Woods 14 234.7 16.76 6.08 10.68 22.84 0.36 62.98
10 Michael Thomas 14 285.7 20.41 11.01 9.4 31.42 0.54 58.23
11 Stefon Diggs 13 242.6 18.66 9.06 9.6 27.72 0.49 57.09
12 AJ Green 9 158.4 17.6 8.17 9.43 25.77 0.46 55.5
13 JuJu Smith-Schuster 14 259.7 18.55 9.44 9.11 27.99 0.51 55
14 Tyreek Hill 14 289.3 20.66 12.68 7.98 33.35 0.61 54.33
15 Brandin Cooks 13 211.8 16.29 7.02 9.27 23.31 0.43 54.09
16 TY Hilton 12 210.1 17.51 8.59 8.92 26.1 0.49 53.2
17 Emmanuel Sanders 12 194.1 16.18 7.27 8.9 23.45 0.45 52.15
18 Mike Evans 14 240.8 17.2 8.47 8.73 25.67 0.49 52.13
19 Tyler Lockett 14 191.6 13.69 4.92 8.77 18.6 0.36 51.77
20 Trey Quinn 2 22.5 11.25 3.32 7.93 14.57 0.3 49.33
21 Tyler Boyd 14 222.1 15.86 7.86 8.01 23.72 0.5 47.89
22 Willie Snead 13 134.9 10.38 3.18 7.2 13.56 0.31 44.26
23 Cooper Kupp 8 135.1 16.89 10.49 6.4 27.38 0.62 44.07
24 Will Fuller 7 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
25 Kenny Golladay 14 195.3 13.95 7.57 6.38 21.52 0.54 39.66
26 Geronimo Allison 5 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
27 Alshon Jeffery 11 160.2 14.56 8.97 5.59 23.53 0.62 38.21
28 Isaiah McKenzie 5 52.7 10.54 4.19 6.35 14.73 0.4 37.03
29 DeSean Jackson 11 150.5 13.68 8.04 5.64 21.72 0.59 36.96
30 Josh Gordon 12 141.7 11.81 5.61 6.2 17.42 0.48 36.66
31 Jarvis Landry 14 189.1 13.51 7.91 5.6 21.42 0.59 36.57
32 Curtis Samuel 10 112.5 11.25 5.19 6.06 16.44 0.46 35.62
33 Marvin Jones 9 116.8 12.98 7.51 5.47 20.49 0.58 35.4
34 Brandon LaFell 4 37.5 9.38 3.38 5.99 12.76 0.36 35.35
35 Cameron Meredith 3 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
36 Golden Tate 13 172.3 13.25 8.5 4.75 21.75 0.64 33.92
37 Mohamed Sanu 14 140 10 4.34 5.66 14.34 0.43 33.03
38 Larry Fitzgerald 14 157.5 11.25 5.86 5.39 17.11 0.52 32.86
39 Dede Westbrook 14 161.2 11.51 6.28 5.24 17.79 0.55 32.63
40 Amari Cooper 13 205.3 15.79 15 0.79 30.79 0.95 32.42
41 Jamison Crowder 7 68.3 9.76 4.25 5.51 14.01 0.44 32.17
42 Allen Robinson 12 143.9 11.99 7.35 4.64 19.34 0.61 31.55
43 Rashad Greene 4 7.8 1.95 0.13 1.82 2.08 0.07 31.4
44 Christian Kirk 12 126.5 10.54 5.35 5.19 15.89 0.51 31.3
45 Adam Humphries 14 163.2 11.66 6.96 4.7 18.62 0.6 31.18
46 Albert Wilson 7 90.7 12.96 9.55 3.41 22.5 0.74 30.55
47 Paul Richardson 7 59.1 8.44 3.23 5.21 11.67 0.38 30.52
48 Demaryius Thomas 14 151 10.79 6.02 4.76 16.81 0.56 30.09
49 Keith Kirkwood 6 40.4 6.73 1.95 4.79 8.68 0.29 30.01
50 Corey Davis 14 170.2 12.16 8.66 3.49 20.82 0.71 29.22

Common sense is the order of the day at this position this late in the season. Most of the top-10 here are matchup-proof and pivoting away from them now would be somewhat suicidal. As you go further down the list then its a case of playing the matchups, but doing it sensibly. If you know a team has trouble covering receivers then a player you know you can rely on is fine. Selecting the fourth receiver on the Browns in the hope he exploits the Bengals is somewhat less of a good idea! As always its about striking the balance between consistency and ceiling.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Travis Kelce 14 275 19.64 9.98 9.66 29.62 0.51 58.31
2 Zach Ertz 14 242.8 17.34 9.8 7.54 27.14 0.57 48.03
3 George Kittle 14 214.4 15.31 8.05 7.26 23.37 0.53 44.44
4 Eric Ebron 14 201.2 14.37 8.12 6.25 22.49 0.57 39.8
5 Hakeem Valles 2 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
6 Adam Shaheen 2 14.4 7.2 1.84 5.36 9.04 0.26 35.4
7 OJ Howard 10 124.5 12.45 6.99 5.46 19.44 0.56 34.62
8 Jordan Reed 12 123.8 10.32 4.42 5.9 14.73 0.43 34.42
9 Jared Cook 14 183.8 13.13 8.92 4.2 22.05 0.68 32.44
10 Jack Doyle 6 62.5 10.42 5.33 5.09 15.75 0.51 30.78
11 Tyler Eifert 4 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
12 Rob Gronkowski 11 128.8 11.71 7.52 4.19 19.23 0.64 29.94
13 Evan Engram 9 88.9 9.88 5.58 4.3 15.46 0.56 27.36
14 Vance McDonald 13 122.2 9.4 5.07 4.33 14.47 0.54 26.82
15 Austin Hooper 14 144.7 10.34 6.93 3.41 17.27 0.67 25.75
16 Lee Smith 6 35.3 5.88 1.79 4.09 7.68 0.3 25.18
17 Kyle Rudolph 14 115.3 8.24 4.02 4.22 12.26 0.49 25.11
18 Greg Olsen 9 83.1 9.23 5.66 3.58 14.89 0.61 24.3
19 Geoff Swaim 8 56.2 7.03 3.11 3.92 10.13 0.44 22.92
20 Mark Andrews 13 81.5 6.27 2.51 3.76 8.78 0.4 21.92
21 Jimmy Graham 14 119.1 8.51 5.4 3.11 13.91 0.63 21.91
22 Trey Burton 14 132.6 9.47 7.56 1.91 17.04 0.8 21.33
23 David Njoku 14 120.4 8.6 5.85 2.75 14.45 0.68 21.24
24 Chris Herndon 12 94.2 7.85 4.85 3 12.7 0.62 20.56
25 Anthony Firkser 6 42.1 7.02 3.88 3.13 10.9 0.55 19.7
26 Ben Watson 11 80.5 7.32 5.12 2.2 12.44 0.7 17.78
27 Will Dissly 4 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
28 CJ Uzomah 14 88.4 6.31 3.52 2.8 9.83 0.56 17.65
29 Cameron Brate 13 87.2 6.71 4.83 1.88 11.53 0.72 16.03
30 Jake Butt 3 16.5 5.5 3.04 2.46 8.54 0.55 15.44

Zach Ertz is the only one of the top four I have concerns about. The other three I am starting if I own them and I am not looking back. The same goes for Jared Cook but beyond that is is all about matchups. Austin Hooper has done well this year against bad matchups and he is a name that may have been jettisoned last week after his zero-point performance. This is perhaps a more matchup variable position than any of the above and that is something you need to consider, especially with what is on the line this week.

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