Week 16 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

December 22, 2018

Ben Rolfe analyzes the first 15 weeks of NFL player data, measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data to help make start/sit lineup decisions.

Another two Saturday games this week so make sure you have those lineups set. It would be criminal to lose your final because you forget about those two games until it is too late! This week is all about trusting your gut if you are in the championship game. If you got here you have likely made smart decisions all season, and while all the information we offer can help, ultimately you have to do what you believe in. In DFS then your format dictates what you columns you are looking at below. In 50/50 type tournaments then the consistency is important but in GPP then ceiling is your key column.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

Good luck this week for those of you in those championship game and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holidays!

Quarterbacks

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 15 weeks from largest to smallest. This week is often a case of trusting who got you to this point. If you are in the finals of your league it is extremely unlikely you are now going to pivot and look elsewhere unless you are desperate.

Josh Johnson has been a nice surprise for Washington fans but for fantasy players, he remains essentially useless, especially with a tough matchup. My biggest concerns this week are Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger, who are both facing incredibly good defenses right now. If you have an option to pivot that you feel OK about I may do it with those two.

The trouble is there is not a lot further down the rankings that I feel great about. A lot of teams have played defense harder to end the season and there are not so many gimmes at this stage. Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum have the best matchups of players outside the top-10. Mayfield is probably owned and there is no way I can trust my season to the hands of Keenum on a Monday night in Oakland.

Running Backs

Injuries are starting to ravage the position as the season wears on and actually fresher guys have been the way to go more recently. I do expect a big bounce back from Elliott and Barkley after they had quiet games last week. McCaffrey should see plenty of the ball early in that game with Newton out but how much they want to expose him is a concern.

Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray look a nice pairing in Minnesota with someone different calling the plays and both could be useful championship winners this week. Marlon Mack is another guy I am trusting this week after a big week for Derrick Henry against that defense last week.

Ultimately though you have to go where you feel comfortable and decide what will haunt you more. This is an inconsistent position at the best of times but this late in the season even more so. If a blip from your stud is less annoying to you than a bad day from a gamble then go that way. If you are happy taking the gamble to live a little dangerously and would be more annoyed if you played safe then that is the way to go here.

Wide Receivers

Common sense is the order of the day at this position this late in the season. Most of the top-10 here are matchup-proof and pivoting away from them now would be somewhat suicidal. As you go further down the list then its a case of playing the matchups, but doing it sensibly. If you know a team has trouble covering receivers then a player you know you can rely on is fine. Selecting the fourth receiver on the Browns in the hope he exploits the Bengals is somewhat less of a good idea! As always its about striking the balance between consistency and ceiling.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz is the only one of the top four I have concerns about. The other three I am starting if I own them and I am not looking back. The same goes for Jared Cook but beyond that is is all about matchups. Austin Hooper has done well this year against bad matchups and he is a name that may have been jettisoned last week after his zero-point performance. This is perhaps a more matchup variable position than any of the above and that is something you need to consider, especially with what is on the line this week.

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