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Matt's tight end (TE) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2025. His TE lineups advice for Week 16 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
It’s crunch time—let’s break down the numbers and matchups to maximize your fantasy football playoff chances.
Every week, a new hero emerges from the fantasy wasteland. Last week, Colby Parkinson (24.5), Gunnar Helm (14.9), and Dawson Knox (18.7) likely produced while sitting on your bench.
Let's dive into the top starts and sits at tight end for Week 16 of the fantasy football season.
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Week 16 - Potential Fantasy Football Booms
Darren Waller - TE, Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals
The matchup to focus on this week is Waller (Miami Dolphins) against the Cincinnati Bengals. Facing the Bengals is a must-start scenario for any tight end, as they have surrendered 1,276 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns to the position. This translates to a league-high 22.7 fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, with the next-closest team, the Miami Dolphins, allowing 16.4 points per game.
Need a more recent trend in futility? Since Week 12, the 24.7 fantasy points per game that the Bengals are allowing trails only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Over the Bengals' previous four contests, they have surrendered 33 receptions, three touchdown receptions, and 468 receiving yards.
This has less to do with Waller specifically and more with him benefiting from a great matchup. Despite recent struggles, he has shown his potential, scoring four touchdowns in three weeks and ranking among the top seven options in back-to-back weeks.
While the Bengals held Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews in check last week, that was an anomaly for how their season has played out thus far. I’ll go with the law of averages and fire up Waller this week.
Dallas Goedert - TE, Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) faces a favourable postseason matchup against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders, since Week 12, are allowing the third-most fantasy points (21.9 per game) and are giving up 10.30 yards per target to tight ends. Over their last three games, they have allowed three touchdown receptions to the position.
Last week, Theo Johnson was the Giants' leading pass catcher against the Commanders, hauling in three of his four targets for 72 yards. For those who can’t be bothered with the math, that’s 24 yards per reception and 10.2 fantasy points (PPR scoring).
That's another Dallas (Goedert) touchdown!
Dallas Goedert x #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/NW9ciEZ4Xg
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 14, 2025
Last season, Goedert found the end zone eight times. This season, not only does he lead all tight ends in games with multiple touchdowns, but he has already surpassed that touchdown number after scoring twice against the Raiders last week, pushing his touchdown total to nine.
Las Vegas had been one of the premier defenses when facing opposing tight ends this season, having allowed 7.9 fantasy points per game to the position on the season. Goedert in Week 15 caught six passes for 70 yards, along with those two touchdown grabs, finishing the week as the TE3 with 25 fantasy points.
The Eagles' tight end is on a heater, recording six-plus receptions, along with seven or more targets, and 70-plus receiving yards in each of the last two weeks, leading to a fantasy average of 20.4 fantasy points.
Brenton Strange - TE, Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
After two consecutive weeks with more than 13.5 fantasy points, Strange’s production has tapered off over the last two weeks, seeing the Jaguars tight end limited to 4.7 fantasy points. However, for those looking for a silver lining and a reason to believe once more, consider his target volume: in those two top-five fantasy tight end weeks, Strange saw nine targets. In the previous two “down” weeks, Strange also saw nine targets, so the volume is there.
As good as the Broncos have been defensively, the one area in which they have struggled in recent weeks is defending opposing tight ends, who often find space underneath and in the middle of the field. This is understandable given that on the boundary, opponents must contend with Patrick Surtain II, while a defensive front that has recorded 58 sacks thus far pressures quarterbacks to throw quickly. This makes tight ends natural safety valves against this scheme.
Trevor Lawrence to Brenton Strange TD!
JAXvsTEN on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/7WDhrUO1wb
— NFL (@NFL) November 30, 2025
In the Broncos' last three games, the defense has allowed 262 receiving yards on 26 receptions, resulting in 19.4 fantasy points per game. Even last week, Luke Musgrave of the Packers was targeted on six occasions, hauling in four of those targets for 52 receiving yards. Look for Denver's defense to continue funnelling targets to the tight end position, returning Strange to the elite tier of fantasy tight ends this week.
Week 16 - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Theo Johnson - TE, New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
Don’t look now, but Johnson is the TE13 in fantasy with 127.8 fantasy points on the season and has averaged 10 fantasy points per game since the start of Week 7. In two of Johnson's previous three contests, the Giants tight end has surpassed that 10-point fantasy threshold, including 10.2 fantasy points last week against the Commanders.
Heading into Week 16, the New York Giants face the Minnesota Vikings, a team that has solidified its defense against tight ends. Before Week 15's conclusion, the Vikings were limiting the position to just three receptions and 24.3 yards per game, allowing only 5.21 yards per target and a mere 5.5 fantasy points per contest.
Last week, Minnesota held Jake Ferguson to two receptions for 16 yards on four targets. Ferguson has been dealing with a calf injury, but he has also been one of the most productive tight ends this season, earning a 20.3% target share and averaging 1.40 yards per route run before that matchup against the Vikings.
This is one matchup fantasy managers should look to avoid, given how well the Vikings have defended the tight end position this season and in recent weeks.
Colston Loveland - TE, Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
Loveland (Chicago Bears) will match up against the Green Bay Packers, a defense that has been a tough opponent for tight ends in recent weeks. Since Week 12, the Packers have allowed just 115 receiving yards and one tight end touchdown, translating to 8.1 fantasy points per game.
Once again, the Packers' defense held, limiting Evan Engram to a single reception for 12 yards in last week's contest. Even Michael Bandy was more of a threat as a pass catcher than Engram was the previous week. I’m just going to leave that right there.
Like Johnson, after a slow start to his 2025 season, Loveland has come on strong. Since Week 9, Loveland is averaging 12.9 points and has been TE5 over that span. He has topped 10 points in three of his last four games, but, as with Johnson, the matchup remains unfavourable with a championship berth at stake.
T.J. Hockenson - TE, Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
For this week's sit recommendation, Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings) takes on the New York Giants. The Giants' defense has been nearly as tough as Minnesota's when defending tight ends, allowing just 8.2 points, three receptions, and 52.3 receiving yards per game over their last three contests.
It’s not like Hockenson has been a dependable option for fantasy managers this season, either. Hockenson’s 8.0 fantasy points per game this season is the 25th highest among his peers, while his 7.9 fantasy points per game since Week 10 ranks 23rd.
For those without better options, Hockenson has finished as TE11 in two of the last three weeks and has seen 13 targets over that span. Factoring in his recent usage and New York’s tough defense against tight ends, unless Hockenson finds the end zone, his fantasy ceiling is nine points with a potential floor as low as four.
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