The Cut List - Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 12

November 19, 2024

Rob's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves for Week 12 (2024). He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.

Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make more informed decisions. This is crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early in the season can be demoralizing. However, the only thing worse than making a mistake is not being able to admit we made one in the first place.

Don’t be afraid to make bold decisions, but be careful not to be too reactionary. Bad weeks are going to happen. Sometimes, opportunity doesn’t always translate into box-score success. The flip side of that is true, too. Sometimes, the box score can look amazing despite poor utilization. This article will help you determine who to send packing and how to value players whose value is falling.

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The Parameters

There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We'll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.

The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut… yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.

The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament.

These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.

One of the final categories we'll sometimes touch on is "Hold On." These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold onto them. On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable.

These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”

Fantasy Football Quarterbacks to Cut for Week 12

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans - 90.7% Rostered

Last night was the last straw. Over the past five weeks, we could make excuses for Stroud. Nico Collins was hurt. Stefon Diggs got hurt. The offensive line play has been horrendous. However, the offensive line play is unlikely to change. Diggs is out for the season. Last night should've been a big night for Stroud.

Collins was back, and they were against a decimated Dallas team. Dallas had allowed the fourth-most points to quarterbacks this season at 21.0 PPG. Stroud did not come through. Before Week 11, Stroud had been averaging 12.8 PPG. He was the QB27 in PPG. Caleb Williams was averaging more points than him. So is Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones.

He has four games this season with fewer than 10 points. Three of them came in the past five weeks. He has just one game with more than 19 points. He has just one ceiling outcome, a 23.5-point performance, but that came against the Jaguars, who have been the most generous defense to opposing quarterbacks.

Stroud has a dangerously low floor and an almost non-existent ceiling. I insisted on holding onto him to see how he did once Collins returned. Collins was back in an excellent matchup last night, but Stroud failed to deliver. If I can move on and pivot to Geno Smith, Bo Nix, Anthony Richardson, Matthew Stafford, or Jared Goff, I am doing that.

Fantasy Football Running Backs to Cut for Week 12

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins – 64.2% Rostered

Mostert hasn’t played more than 25% of the team’s snaps since Week 8. Over the past two games, Mostert has played 18 snaps, just 15% of the team’s snaps. During these two contests, Mostert received three carries, including Week 10 when he finished with zero. Mostert did have three targets, two receptions, and 34 receiving yards in Week 10, but had no targets in Week 11.

Meanwhile, rookie Jaylen Wright has played 27 snaps in the past two weeks. He also has ten carries, five in each game. Wright has supplanted Mostert as Miami’s No. 2 running back behind De’Von Achane.

In case you missed yesterday’s game, Miami #Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert only played 10 snaps (15% of the total offensive snaps) vs. the Las Vegas #Raiders.

We’ll see if Mostert will be available this upcoming Sunday afternoon vs. New England. https://t.co/11yo64gBWm

— Brandon Liguori (@BrandonRLiguori) November 19, 2024

Mostert holds no standalone value. He’s completely unstartable. If Achane were to miss any games, it seems that Wright would be the biggest beneficiary. Mostert would likely go from fantasy-irrelevant, where he is now, to being a low-level flex play. Fantasy managers can safely cut Mostert. There are better weekly players on the waiver wire. There are also better handcuffs available, as well. There’s no reason to roster him.

Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Cut for Week 12

Diontae Johnson, Baltimore Ravens – 73.9% Rostered

When Johnson was traded to Baltimore, reports indicated the team made the trade to improve their depth at receiver. It indicated that the team was happy with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman as their starting receivers and that Johnson would not replace them.

While most did not believe that, it certainly appears to be true. Johnson has yet to play 20 snaps or more than 30% of the team’s snaps in any game he’s been with the Ravens. He played the most snaps in his first game with the club in Week 9.

#Ravens traded dust for Diontae Johnson three games ago. He's run 15 routes on 94 Lamar Jackson dropbacks so far.

Continues to look like the NFL thinks much less of Diontae than the public.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 18, 2024

He’s played just 16 snaps in the past two weeks, just under 13% of the team’s snaps. Johnson has two targets, one reception, and six yards in three weeks as a Raven. Baltimore doesn’t pass enough to support three pass-catchers, much less four.

Johnson is purely a depth player for the Ravens. He’s, at best, No. 4 on the team’s target hierarchy, but realistically, he’s No. 5, behind even Justice Hill. It’ll take an injury for Johnson to be fantasy-relevant, and even that may not be enough.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – 66.8% Rostered

With Jaxon Smith-Njigba's ascension over the past few weeks and D.K. Metcalf healthy again, Lockett's value has never been lower. At the beginning of the season, Metcalf operated as the team's No. 1 receiver, with JSN and Lockett almost alternating week to week. However, in recent weeks, JSN has fully separated from Lockett.

We've seen what I'll call more intentional usage for Jaxon Smith-Njigba in recent games. The fact that we got that type of deployment once again coming out of the bye and with DK Metcalf back in the lineup feels like a big deal. pic.twitter.com/p9krXPTymV

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 18, 2024

This past weekend, Lockett had three targets, two receptions, and 19 yards. Metcalf had nine targets, seven receptions, and 70 yards. JSN had 11 targets, ten receptions, and 110 yards. This is Smith-Njigba's third game in a row with six or more targets. He also now has two consecutive games with over 100 yards.

From Weeks 1-9, Lockett was averaging 8.3 half-PPR PPG before the team's bye week. That level of production is undoubtedly someone capable of being on your bench. He hasn't yet scored 15 points in a game this season. However, Lockett seems to be trending in the wrong direction, primarily due to JSN's steps in the past few weeks.

Lockett isn't someone you need to cut, but I'm more than okay cutting him if there is someone on the waiver wire worth your while. Lockett's weekly ceiling is minimal to non-existent, and if JSN continues playing as he has recently, Lockett will be unstartable soon.

Hold On

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars – 88.8% Rostered

Etienne has been brutal this season. He has not scored double-digit half-PPR points since Week 3. He hasn’t even scored more than 5.0 half-PPR points since Week 5. Despite that, fantasy managers should be holding onto Etienne.

Tank Bigsby missed Week 11 due to an ankle injury. It’s unknown if he’ll be able to return following the team’s Week 12 bye, but the team is optimistic that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will. That’ll give the entire offense a major boast.

As long as Lawrence returns, Etienne has life. Given the injuries the team is dealing with at receiver, specifically Christian Kirk and Gabriel Davis, Etienne could become more involved in the passing game following their bye.

Bigsby’s future status is unknown. Etienne's value will increase if he cannot return in Week 13. While Etienne has undoubtedly been a major disappointment, he’s worth hanging onto, at least for the next few weeks.

On the Hot Seat

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns – 87.0% Rostered

Chubb has a ton of name value, and astonishingly, he’s even on the field doing what he’s doing, given what he’s overcome. For fantasy, however, Chubb is nothing more than volume-dependent RB3. Since returning in Week 7, Chubb has scored 9.7, 5.2, 4.0, and 5.0 half-PPR points. His 9.7-point outcome included one rushing score. This would have left him with just 3.7 half-PPR points without the score.

Chubb has six targets over the past four games, culminating in just two receptions. He offers zero value in the passing game. Without a touchdown, he’s guaranteed to be a disappointment. Even with a score, he’s unlikely to be much better than a mid-to-backend RB2.

Since Chubb is so gamescript-dependent, Cleveland’s future schedule can provide insight into his value moving forward. The Browns close the season with Pittsburgh, Denver, Pittsburgh (again), Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Miami.

The Steelers have allowed the 13th-fewest points to running backs this season. Cleveland will also be underdogs in both contests. Denver has allowed the 15th-fewest points to running backs. Cleveland will likely be underdogs in this game, as well.

They’ll likely be 10-point underdogs to Kansas City, who are allowing the fewest points to running backs. They’ll also be underdogs against Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed the ninth-fewest points to running backs.

Unless you’re truly desperate, Chubb is a poor start in each of his next five games. If you have a good running back depth, Chubb is cuttable. If not, his volume deserves a place on rosters, but he shouldn’t be near starting lineups.

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