X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for xERA (Week 8)

Spencer Strider - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose xERA could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 8.

Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. There are many ERA skill indicator metrics that fantasy managers can use to understand how pitchers are performing beyond their peripherals. I wrote about SIERA last week, and this week I will write about expected ERA (xERA).

xERA is a 1:1 translation of the Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) converted to the ERA scale. Like SIERA, xwOBA takes into account the amount of contact and the quality of that contact a pitcher allows in an attempt to credit them for the moment of contact. Unlike SIERA, xwOBA/xERA does not factor in ballpark conditions.

SIERA and xERA may be similar, but both are useful for fantasy managers. We are starting to gather a useful amount of data so fantasy managers can start identifying over and underachievers and buy-low/sell-high candidates. With that, let's dive into some xERA Studs and Duds!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

xERA Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 14, 2023.

Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins

6-1, 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.15 xERA

Joe Ryan is a name fantasy managers have been familiar with for some time. His first full season in 2022 was promising, and he has taken more positive steps this season, putting together a 6-1 record with a 2.16 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 29.7% strikeout rate. His stellar 2.39 xERA supports his strong start. What changes has he made to lead to his improvements?

Ryan made substantial changes to his pitch arsenal that have been very effective. He has always relied heavily on a four-seam fastball but added a split-finger fastball and a sweeper this season. The splitter has been his main secondary pitch at 27.4%  usage and has yielded a .194 batting average against with a 13.4% swinging strike rate.

Ryan's new pitches have allowed his overall swinging strike rate to jump from 11.4% to 14.3% and his strikeout rate to jump from 25% to 29.7%. His pitch movement and location have led to a chase rate in the 99th percentile of baseball, which has helped the strikeouts but also helped cut his walk rate in half.

Ryan has pitched very well this season and his underlying stats support it. His new pitches have helped take his game to another level. There is no reason to think he won't continue to pitch well if he can locate his fastball in the top of the zone and get swings-and-misses and chases on his secondary pitches.

Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

4-1, 2.51 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2.39 xERA

Spencer Strider burst onto the fantasy scene last season and has picked up right where he left off this season. The 24-year-old has gone 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and an insane 42.9% strikeout rate through his first eight starts. He has also compiled an excellent 2.39 xERA to back things up. How has he been so successful while essentially relying on two pitches?

The bottom line is you can be a successful starter with two pitches when both are completely overpowering. Strider's fastball comes in at 97 mph, putting it in the 93rd percentile of baseball. The pitch's spin rate is in the 83rd percentile of baseball, giving it a perception of rising. His slider also has above-average movement and a ridiculous 27.7% swinging strike rate.

Strider has actually allowed harder-than-average contact with an 18.8-degree launch angle, but he allows such little contact that it hasn't mattered. The rest of his Statcast profile is red across the board and his expected metrics are all excellent. He should continue to be a top-end fantasy starter with one of baseball's best pairing of pitches.

 

xERA Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 14, 2023.

Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox

1-4, 5.74 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 7.61 xERA

Michael Kopech turned in an encouraging 2022 season but has not been able to replicate it whatsoever in 2023. He has managed a 5.74 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 21.4% strikeout rate, and 14.6% walk rate through eight starts. Even more troubling, his 7.61 xERA is significantly higher than his ERA. Should fantasy managers hold out any hope he can return to 2022 form?

As of now, there are not any signs to suggest so. Walks have been the primary issue. Kopech's walk rate in 2022 was high at 11.5%, but 14.6% this season has been too high to work around.

Additionally, he has gotten crushed when contact has been made. Kopech's exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 12th and sixth percent of baseball, respectively, to go with a 19.6-degree launch angle. His BABIP is surprisingly low at .246, but he has allowed a lot of contact out of the park with a 2.55 HR/9 rate and a 20.7% HR/FB rate.

Fantasy managers were likely excited for Kopech this season, but few things have gone right for him. He has put too many batters on for free and has allowed a lot of hard contact in the air. His xERA suggests that he should actually be doing even worse. At this point, he has too many facets of his game to fix to make him a fantasy hopeful.

Rich Hill, Pittsburgh Pirates

3-3, 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6.55 xERA

Rich Hill has once again been a useful fantasy option at times this season. The veteran has compiled a 3-3 record with a 4.35 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 19.9% strikeout rate in eight starts. However, his 6.55 xERA tells a different story. Does the 43-year-old still have something to offer fantasy managers, or should they be wary?

Hill is no longer a strikeout option due to his decreased velocity, so fantasy managers should take that out of the equation from the beginning. Looking deeper, his batted-ball profile has been above-average, allowing slightly less hard contact than league-average with a 17.1-degree launch angle. However, the rest of his Statcast profile is poor, particularly his expected stats.

Hill's xERA falls in line with the rest of his expected statistics, but his batted-ball profile seems to contradict it. Hill will likely allow more hits than average given his crafty approach and lack of overpowering stuff, but he seems to make things work overall. I would not suggest Hill in a roto league given his high WHIP and low strikeout rate, but I do think he is worth starting in decent matchups in points leagues at this time.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Evan Carter

Leaves Early With Wrist Soreness
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Matt Chapman

Could Miss the Rest of June
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Makes Strides This Offseason
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Ashton Jeanty

to be Part of Committee Backfield?
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Christian McCaffrey

Takes Part in Mandatory Minicamp
Jordan Watkins

has Been Standing Out
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Jacob Cowing

on the Rise
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Demarcus Robinson

a Frequent Target This Spring
Dee Winters

has Been Impressive This Spring
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aaron Civale

Traded to the White Sox
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Jacob Misiorowski

Pulled With Cramps
Framber Valdez

Punches Out 12 in Win
Isaac Paredes

Homers, Exits Early With Hamstring Injury
D.J. Humphries

Rams Sign D.J. Humphries on Thursday
Troy Franklin

has Had a Good Offseason
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Game with Ankle Injury
Mike Williams

Expected to be Ready for Training Camp
Trey Benson

Adds Weight, Explosiveness
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Christian Moore

Angels Calling Up Christian Moore
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Christian Yelich

Back in Brewers Lineup
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Reportedly Has "No Trade Market"
Jarace Walker

Remains Out Wednesday
Tyrese Haliburton

"Fine" For Wednesday's Action
Denny Hamlin

Charges Late to Win at Michigan
Carson Hocevar

Michigan Run is Derailed by A Late-Race Flat Tire
Kyle Larson

Up-and-Down Day Ends With Top-Five Finish at Michigan
Ross Chastain

Quietly Finishes Sixth at Michigan
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Says Rehab Going "Great"
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Stuart Skinner

Gets Pulled in Heavy Game 3 Defeat
Evan Rodrigues

Extends Scoring Streak with Multi-Point Effort
Sam Reinhart

Collects Two Points in Monday's Win
Chris Buescher

Takes Second Place After William Byron Runs Out of Fuel
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Has a Great Points Day to Build Buffer Over the Playoff Cut Line
Ryan Blaney

Flat Tire Results in Poor Finish for Ryan Blaney
Alex Bowman

Playoffs in Doubt After Stage 2 Crash at Michigan
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
Denny Hamlin

is A Top Contender to Win At Michigan
Kyle Larson

Will Compete For The Win At Michigan
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF