RADIO
Andrew Sullivan analyzes Twins 1B/DH Kennys Vargas as a fantasy baseball sleeper in the upcoming 2017 draft as a possible source of home run and RBI production.
With the plethora of power providers in the backend of most drafts, it can become quite the head-throbber for many fantasy baseball owners when trying to decipher the select few signals within the noise. Not to fret, however. Allow me to alleviate some of the strain and introduce to you all to a fellow that will quench your power thirsts.
Presenting, Kennys Vargas of the Minnesota Twins.
Vargas only played in 47 games last season and tallied just 177 PA because he spent the majority of the first half in the minor leagues. He was first called up in July, but was sent back down in August after struggling before being recalled in September. Nonetheless, the slugger produced in those batch of games, particularly in the power department.
The 26-year-old clubbed 10 HR on the year, which were accompanied by a .270 ISO and a 21.7% HR/FB. The latter ratio, although well above the league average, was supported by his batted ball profile. His average fly ball distance of 340 feet was plentiful. He hit enough fly balls (47.9% FB%) and limited the infield flies (6.5% IFFB%). He pulled and scorched the ball more than enough with a 47.9% Pull% and a 41.7% Hard%.
Now, because Vargas is classified as a power slugger, that means he embodies the prototypical power hitter profile. In 2016, he posted a high BB% (13.6%), a very high K% (32.2%), a fairly high OBP (.333) and a low BA (.230). Likewise for his plate discipline. Vargas does not swing as often and takes more pitches, which leads to the high BB%. However, when he does swing, he does not make as much contact, leading to the high K% and low BA.
Think of him as a younger, switch-hitting version of Chris Carter with a little less pop. Just think about it; both have the gaudy power numbers; the high BB% and K%; the low BA; similar approaches at the dish. Both have that uppercut swing. Vargas' and Carter's average launch angles are 14.7 and 18.8 degrees, respectively. Both are listed at 6'5", although Vargas has bit more meat on his bones at 275 lbs than does Carter at 245 lbs.
There are a couple of disclaimers that should be addressed. Firstly, Vargas' only had 177 PA last season, so it is a small sample size. But if we examine his numbers through Triple-A, Vargas has proven he can hit for power. Vargas has a career ISO in his career in Triple-A.
Secondly, he has not yet earned a starting role for 2017. Minnesota has some competition at first baseman. Vargas, along with Joe Mauer and Byung-ho Park will be duking it out for the starting job. Fantasy baseball owners should monitor the Twins' 1B situation as next season approaches in order to properly gage Vargas's draft value. If he receives the playing time, Vargas should pump out 20–25 HR.
Thirdly, as mentioned previously, Vargas is similar to Carter except Carter has a little more power. This would mean that we would expect Vargas to hit a slightly lower HR total, but still strikeout around 30%. The tradeoff of a 30% K% and 20–25 HR is not ideal. But Vargas makes enough contact that merits a K% more in the mid-twenties, which is manageable.
Conclusion:
With all of this, take a late-round flier on Vargas in deep mixed and AL-only leagues and stash away his 20-homer power. He could be a serious home run sleeper if he finds enough playing time in the upcoming season.
