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Matt's quarterback (QB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 16 of 2025. His QB lineups advice for Week 16 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
Congratulations if you made it this far; now business is about to pick up as the Fantasy Football Championship births are on the line. Each lineup decision carries a little more weight than the previous weeks. Each risky proposition is magnified just a little more.
Last week, Trevor Lawrence led the way in fantasy with 44.3 fantasy points, just as we all predicted. At the same time, Jacoby Brissett picked up his ninth consecutive top-12 finish in a difficult matchup against the Houston Texans.
With these notable performances in mind, let’s shift our attention to RotoBaller’s Week 16 starts and sits for the quarterback position.
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Week 16 - Potential Fantasy Football Booms
Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys
Since Week 10, Herbert hasn’t been a viable option; let’s call it like we see it. If you have made it this far with Herbert under center for your fantasy rosters, he’s been nothing more than a game manager, averaging 11.5 fantasy points over his last five contests.
Herbert has faced two complex defenses in the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in recent weeks, both of which held the Chargers' signal caller to fewer than 215 passing yards and limited him to a single touchdown toss in each of those contests. Luckily, fantasy football is a week-to-week contest, and often the matchups carry more weight than recent player trends, as is the case with Herbert, who faces the Cowboys this week.
Justin Herbert passes Patrick Mahomes for the 2nd-most pass yards by a player in their first 6 NFL seasons all-time ⚡️@chargers | #BoltUp pic.twitter.com/QJJG03g9z3
— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) December 14, 2025
Before facing J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings in Week 15, the Cowboys' defense had allowed an NFL-high 25.5 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks since Week 12. McCarthy managed just 10.5 fantasy points combined in Weeks 11 and 12, but against the Cowboys, he finished as the fantasy QB6 with 24.5 points from two passing touchdowns and a rushing score.
Kirk Cousins - QB, Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
“You like that”, Cousins put on a show last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, completing 30 of 44 passing attempts for 373 yards and three touchdowns. More impressive yet, he did so without Drake London in the lineup.
After review it's a... touchdown!
Kyle Pitts with his THIRD of the night 🙌
ATLvsTB on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Qhap3iexGS— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2025
That contest, last week, was the first time since Week 8 of the 2024 season in which Cousins would finish as a QB1 in fantasy, as the 26.9 fantasy points he dropped on the Buccaneers were enough to walk away from last week as the overall QB3. To think, he did this on primetime. If you know, you know.
This week’s opponent is the Arizona Cardinals, who surrendered 23.4 fantasy points to C.J. Stroud, who had logged only 10 and 12.6 fantasy points in the two previous weeks. Against Arizona, Stroud reversed his dip by throwing for 260 yards, completing 75.8% of his passes, and delivering three touchdowns—his first 20+ point game since Week 8.
Since Week 12, the Arizona secondary has surrendered 10 passing touchdowns; the only other defense to match that feat over that period has been the Tennessee Titans. In those four contests, Arizona has allowed 991 passing yards and surrendered an average of 20.5 fantasy points.
Bryce Young - QB, Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Since Week 12, the Buccaneers have surrendered 1,098 passing yards along with eight passing touchdowns and 23.2 fantasy points per game, the fourth-most over that period. We all witnessed what Cousins and the Falcons offense did against this very same Buccaneers secondary a week ago. Cousins' top options at wide receiver were David Sills V and Darnell Mooney, as he utilized both Kyle Pitts Sr. and Bijan Robinson more in the passing game than he did his receivers.
Since Week 11, Bryce Young has become a stronger fantasy option, averaging 20 fantasy points per game. In that span, only Brissett, Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence, and Josh Allen have averaged more fantasy points per game, placing Young just after these established fantasy quarterbacks in recent production. In those four contests, Young has notched two top-five fantasy finishes: one against the Falcons and another in Week 13 against the Rams.
Sidearm slingin' it
📺: FOX
Posts and reposts = 2 votes
Bryce Young | #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/fofi7QRkXR
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) December 14, 2025
While Young failed to crack the top 12 last week, he did manage to throw a touchdown pass and add 49 yards on the ground. The ability to produce in the run game makes Young all the more intriguing this week for fantasy managers looking to replace Mahomes in their lineups.
Week 16 - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Jaxson Dart - QB, New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings
All three busts this week come out of the QB1 fantasy tier. There is a good chance you are starting all three, but expectations should be tempered here. The first quarterback that has potential bust written all over him here in Week 16 is the New York Giants Quarterback, Dart.
Dart enters Week 16 averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game, on the season, and sits as the overall QB12 in fantasy. Since returning from injury, Dart has gone on to average 18.4 fantasy points over his last two starts and was pretty productive last week against the Commanders, having thrown for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while adding 63 yards with his legs.
As good as Dart has been this season, the Vikings have been one of the toughest fantasy matchups for the quarterback position. Last week, Prescott was held under 20 fantasy points for the first time since Week 9 as the Vikings limited Prescott to 12 fantasy points. Prescott currently sits third in the NFL with 26 passing touchdowns and first in the NFL with 3,931 passing yards. Minnesota held Prescott without a touchdown throw in that contest.
In the three games before the Vikings faced Prescott and the Cowboys, Minnesota had limited the opposing quarterbacks to 5.1 fantasy points per game and hadn’t surrendered a touchdown pass over the three-game period.
Dak Prescott - QB, Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers
Speaking of Prescott, you just made the list. This isn’t about Prescott and what he has done this season. Despite a pedestrian Week 15 performance, Prescott has been good this season, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game (QB5) and hitting the over on his seasonal average on eight occasions thus far.
Prescott is an MVP candidate. Not only does he rank first and second in passing yards and passing touchdowns, but he also sits second in first downs, ninth in yards per attempt (7.5), 10th in adjusted yards gained per passing attempt (7.66), and third in game-winning drives (three). His 72.8 quarterback rating is the second-highest this season.
Prescott is obviously going to be in your starting lineups. Still, fantasy managers once again need to temper their expectations as Prescott faces the daunting task that is the Chargers' defense. Over the Chargers' last three games, they have allowed just two passing touchdowns, 616 passing yards, and 10.8 fantasy points per contest, the third-fewest.
Last week, the Chargers held Mahomes to 16 of 28 passing for 189 yards. In that contest, the Chargers picked Mahomes off, but they pressured him all game, resulting in 5 sacks. Going back another week, the Charger defense forced Jalen Hurts to turn the ball over five times (four interceptions). Before that contest, the Eagles had only turned the ball over eight times in the previous 12 games.
Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Speaking of game-winning drives, no quarterback has led their team on more game-winning drives this season than Broncos quarterback, Nix. The second-year signal caller has led the Broncos on six game-winning drives, and I’m convinced he conserves his energy for late-game heroics.
With the Broncos' latest victory, Nix earned his 22nd career victory, tying him with Prescott, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger for the second-most wins for a quarterback in their first two seasons. Denver still has four games left. I doubted Nix last week, and to his credit, he completed 23 of 34 attempts for 302 yards and four touchdowns.
Last week was a tough matchup, and so too is this week's showdown with the AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars, again, not a typo. Let’s give the Jaguars some love. This season, Jacksonville is averaging 8.4 fantasy points as a defense, forcing 18 interceptions and 26 turnovers, the second-most in both defensive categories.
In the Jaguars' last four contests, they have allowed just a pair of touchdown passes, 837 total passing yards, and 12.5 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Again, the chances you can afford to sit Nix this week are slim, but the Jaguars are the kind of defense that could frustrate fantasy managers with their eyes set on a fantasy championship appearance in 2025.
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