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Justin's playoff predictions for the 2025 college football season. Which 12 teams are the early favorites to make the expanded CFP field next season?
The dust of the first 12-team playoff has settled and Ohio State has won the national title. That's right: the No. 8 seed in the playoff won the title, something unheard of in FBS football.
Just a couple of weeks ago, I took an initial stab at what the playoff field would look like. Not too much has changed since then, but some has, so I'm revisiting those predictions and updating them for this new world. You'll notice that two at-large bids have changed between that last attempt and now.
Let's predict what the 12-team playoff bracket will look like in 2025.
No. 1 Seed: Ohio State
What I Said: "I keep going back and forth on who will win the Big Ten next year, and we really won't know who the favorite is until we know who the quarterbacks will be at Ohio State and Oregon. But for now, I'm predicting that the Buckeyes will take the title in a tough-fought, three-team battle with Oregon and Penn State."
YOUR 2024 CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONS: THE OHIO STATE BUCKEYES 🏆 pic.twitter.com/d2WV4FDqvx
— ESPN (@espn) January 21, 2025
What Changed: Simply put, the Buckeyes won a national title. Getting the monkey off Ryan Day's back was enough for me to move Ohio State from the No. 2 seed to the No. 1 spot.
The team has to figure out the quarterback position this offseason, but Ohio State seems to consistently bring in quality players at that position. Who was the last bad Buckeyes quarterback? Braxton Miller before he converted to receiver? I don't know. The point is, I trust this program to figure that out.
The Buckeyes enter the offseason with the top odds of any team to repeat as national champions.
No. 2 Seed: Texas
What I Said: "A quarterback change in 2025 is going to propel the Texas Longhorns to the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff."
What Changed: Nothing, really. There was a loss to Ohio State, but the main argument why Texas would be contenders next year was that Arch Manning will take over at quarterback, so Quinn Ewers struggling and leading Texas to just 14 points doesn't factor into the analysis here.
The real reason Texas dropped a spot is simply that Ohio State proved it can get over the hurdle and win a title. Now, if Ohio State bungles the quarterback position this offseason, Texas could easily shoot back up to No. 1.
No. 3 Seed: Clemson
What I Said: "Cade Klubnik finally figured things out in 2024, leading Clemson to a strong season that ended in a playoff berth. That trip to the playoffs only happened because Clemson beat SMU in the ACC title game, but in 2025, Clemson's going to be good enough to get in either way, as the Tigers will dominate the ACC."
What Changed: Clemson and BYU have swapped seeds from where the two teams were at in the last rankings. Nothing really changed to lead to that other than some introspection about how a Klubnik-led Tigers team is probably better than BYU.
I also baked in uncertainty more last time. I think BYU is better relative to the rest of the Big 12 than Clemson is to the rest of the ACC, making it more likely the Cougars get the automatic bid.
This time, I'm not hedging. Clemson is the better team. It will be the No. 3 seed.
No. 4 Seed: BYU
What I Said: "BYU is set to bring back a huge portion of its roster next season and has a relatively easy schedule. In conference play, BYU doesn't play Arizona State or Baylor, with the team's toughest game being a road matchup against Iowa State."
What Changed: Nothing. As mentioned in the Clemson section above, I'm just more confident that Clemson is a better team than BYU, even while I'm more confident that BYU wins the Big 12 than I am that Clemson wins the ACC.
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff needs to cut down on the turnovers, but he has the makings of a very good college quarterback. His improvement plus the continuity of bringing back so many pieces makes the Cougars the Big 12 favorites.
No. 5 Seed: Penn State
What I Said: "When I revisit these predictions after the playoffs, I have a feeling that Penn State is going to be the most likely team to jump into the auto bids."
What Changed: Penn State and Oregon swap positions here, even though Penn State didn't win the Orange Bowl game it played since the last article.
Simply put, we know with certainty now that Drew Allar will be back in 2025. He'll open the year as one of the Heisman favorites and as the Big Ten's best quarterback.
No. 6 Seed: Oregon
What I Said: "An easy 2025 schedule puts Oregon in a good spot to repeat as Big Ten champions. The team has a road matchup with Penn State, but it doesn't play Ohio State in the regular season."
Dante Moore and the Oregon Ducks stand out in numerous way-too-early preseason polls: https://t.co/b2sVbc9TgD
— Autzen Zoo (@Autzen_Zoo) January 21, 2025
What Changed: It sounds like Oregon will turn to Dante Moore at quarterback next season instead of looking into the portal. Moore, who transferred to the team in December 2023 from UCLA, struggled a bit in his 2023 action with the Bruins, completing 53.5 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
He'll almost certainly do much better in 2025 with the Ducks, but the uncertainty about how he'll look in this system is enough to drop the Ducks one spot.
No. 7 Seed: Notre Dame
What I Said: "The Irish will likely need to find a new starting quarterback next season, but the team's relatively easy schedule sets it up for another one-loss season. Games against Miami, Texas A&M, Boise State, and USC could be tough, but unless the team completely whiffs at quarterback, it should go at least 3-1 against those four programs."
What Changed: Everything I said about Notre Dame's case next season remains true. The schedule has some tough spots on it and the team needs to figure out the quarterback position, but Marcus Freeman's program will likely cruise to a one-loss season and find itself back in the playoff.
No. 8 Seed: Georgia
What I Said: "I can't count a Kirby Smart team out, though. Georgia is always loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. It's hard to imagine a world where Georgia ever misses the 12-team playoff as long as Smart is there."
What Changed: Like I said, never count Georgia out. The Bulldogs could easily go out and earn a top-2 seed again, but I need to see more from Gunner Stockton before I put much trust in this program.
No. 9 Seed: Tennessee
What I Said: "In his first season as the Vols starting quarterback, Nico Iamaleava threw 19 touchdown passes and rushed for three more, leading Tennessee to a playoff appearance. With another year of experience under his belt, he should have the Volunteers right back there next season."
What Changed: The Volunteers remain the No. 9 seed, just as they were in the last rankings. This might not be a title contender, but Iamaleava is a good quarterback who will bring this team another playoff appearance.
No. 10 Seed: LSU
What I Said: N/A
What Changed: I originally had South Carolina in this spot, but the more I looked at the Gamecocks' schedule, the worse I felt about the team's chances. LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M all in a row plus a game against Clemson to end the regular season is just filthy. SC could be a playoff team, but with that schedule, I can't give it the benefit of the doubt.
2025 Heisman Odds, via FanDuel:
Garrett Nussmeier +900
Arch Manning +950
Cade Klubnik +1100
Drew Allar +1100
Nico Iamaleava +1100
Jeremiah Smith +1700
Carson Beck +1800
Julian Sayin +1800
Dante Moore +2000
LaNorris Sellers +2000
John Mateer +2500
DJ Lagway +2500 pic.twitter.com/ndsqEqoC9E— College Football Report (@CFBRep) January 21, 2025
Instead, this at-large spot still comes from the SEC, but it comes via LSU. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is the early favorite to win the Heisman and the team doesn't play Texas or Georgia during the regular season. It can afford to drop one or two games between its three big road contests: Clemson, Ole Miss, and Alabama.
No. 11 Seed: Miami
What I Said: N/A
What Changed: The other change as far as the composition of the 12-team field looks is that I'm dropping Arizona State out for Miami.
This isn't because I think the Sun Devils were frauds. Quite simply, this is just prognosticating what the CFP selection committee is likely to do and that's pick a second ACC team over a second Big 12 team. Arizona State has to beat BYU in the conference title game to get in and I've already highlighted why BYU is the best team in that conference.
.@dennisdoddcbs’ way-too-early Top 25 for 2025.
Who do y’all think should be higher? pic.twitter.com/lfVG5w3ZNX
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) January 21, 2025
With the Sun Devils out, Miami slides into the final at-large spot. Transfer quarterback Carson Beck is no Cam Ward, but looking around the landscape of college football next season, I'm not sure Miami needs a Ward.
It just feels like there are a lot of questions surrounding a lot of good teams. Having a steady presence like Beck under center might just be enough to get the Hurricanes where they couldn't get this past season.
No. 12 Seed: Boise State
What I Said: "Boise State won't have Ashton Jeanty next year, but the team should still be the best Group of Five program in the nation."
What Changed: We'll end this with a short one: nothing. Quarterback Maddux Madsen will get a chance to prove next season that his strong 2024 campaign was because he's a good quarterback, not just that he was the beneficiary of defenses that focused all their energy on stopping Ashton Jeanty.
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