RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. It wouldn't have been the Waste Management Open without a wild and rowdy finish on Sunday. Rickie Fowler survived a frantic final round to capture his first title on tour since the Honda Classic in 2017. The American has long been considered one of the most notable underachievers in golf, winning just five PGA Tour titles in his career, but it is difficult to say if the victory in Phoenix will help or hurt Fowler the next time he is in the hunt. The 30-year-old shot a three-over par on Sunday, which featured a double bogey at the fifth hole and a triple bogey at number 11. Fowler did manage to play the other 16 holes in two-under par, but these missteps will surely prove more costly in the future. But regardless of all the negatives that we could attach to the frenzied finish, it is a step in the right direction for the eighth-ranked player in the world, and perhaps this helps to jump-start his career.
Our pick to win Justin Thomas (10/1) concluded the event in third place. I don't usually mess around with the very top of the betting board, but I mentioned during my Waste Management Open write-up last week how the event generally plays rather straightforward. We successfully narrowed the winner down to a more condensed group of seven players (Fowler included) but unfortunately ended up choosing incorrectly. That is the nature of the beast when it comes to outright wagers and is one of the reasons why I keep stressing that each-way betting makes futures wagers a much more profitable proposition long-term.
Thankfully, though, we were able to increase our head-to-head betting record to (7-3-2) on the season with a Ryan Palmer (+105) victory over Kevin Tway. Tway's missed cut in Phoenix marks the eighth time this year that we have successfully been able to pinpoint an opponent to miss the cut. That isn't going to be a maintainable percentage all season, and there will be some regression to the means eventually. However, as long as we keep being selective with our wagers, there is no reason that we can't hover around a 60 percent win rate. With the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am on tap, let's dive a little deeper into some value picks that we will be targeting in California.
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2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am - Pebble Beach Golf Links
6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa
After a week-long hiatus from having to deal with a split course event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will put us right back into another rotational week of golf. Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club will be our host venues, and the cut will take place after all players have played each track once. The top 60 and ties will make it to Sunday, and the field will play Pebble Beach Golf Links for the final round.
Pebble Beach is the only course that will feature Shot Link data and Shot Tracker, and we won't have much of an idea of what is going on at the other two properties. There are two huge negatives when it comes to this. For starters, we will only have an idea of what is happening for a third of the players each day. That in itself is terrible from a viewing perspective, but it also hurts us when it comes to breaking down the event properly. With half the rounds at Spyglass and Monterey, we won't have any strokes gained numbers for the week, and most importantly, we won't have any long-term data to incorporate into our research pre-tournament.
Pebble Beach Golf Links will have a slightly different feel than usual. The U.S. Open will be taking place there this year, and the course is already set up to play with U.S. Open width. That means the fairways will be more narrow, which will further emphasize the thicker rough that the USGA has been growing out for June. Not to mention that rain has been bombarding the course as of late, and the rough is even more penal than usual. Golfers that can gain strokes with their approach shots (especially from between 100-150 yards) will put themselves in a better position to score, but the greens are some of the smallest on tour, and players will also need to be able to save par around the putting surface.
Pebble Beach Pick to Win
Patrick Cantlay - 25/1, DK Price $9,800, FD Price $11,000
*** Patrick Cantlay has withdrawn prior to the opening round of the event.
Eight-hour rounds due to it being a Pro-Am, three separate tracks used on Thursday-Saturday, trackable data on only one of the courses and severe rain and wind bombarding Pebble Beach. What could possibly go wrong from a viewing perspective this week!? I almost wanted to boycott the betting card altogether because this is the ultimate flip of a coin. Golfers will need to get the right course draw to match the weather on that day and will need to be patient when Larry the Cable Guy implodes for 22 strokes on the hole in front of them, keeping everyone stalled on the tee box. UGHHHHH!
History has shown that the event yields a hodgepodge of different results. The last five winners have ranked 246th, 6th, 447th, 63rd and 35th in the world at the time of their victory. I think all of the above factors that were stated play a considerable role in the mixture of outcomes, and therefore it is probably a better tournament to place a wager on once it has started. Dustin Johnson leads the way at 6/1, closely followed by Jason day at 9/1. No other player enters the picture until Matt Kuchar at 20/1, and Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay and Phil Mickelson round out the top eight golfers, coming in somewhere between 22-25/1.
Johnson and Day are the deserving favorites with their course history at Pebble Beach, but I think the first minor mispricing comes from Patrick Cantlay. In my opinion, Cantlay should be priced as the third best player in this field, and we are seeing his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago looming large when it comes to his price. I would have listed him at 18/1, so I think we are getting an extra seven points from one failed weekend.
There are a couple of things that I like about Cantlay that generally would be laughable to mention. Rounds take forever to complete when playing alongside amateurs, and Cantlay's pace-of-play should be ideally suited to embrace the rainy grind. Most players will want to pull their hair out with the excruciating long waits in between shots, but the 26-year-old will be able to take all the time he desires at Pebble Beach. As ludicrous as that appears to sound, it should give him an advantage over the field.
From more of a statistical outlook, the American's game is picture perfect for all three courses. Born and raised in California, Cantlay is comfortable playing West Coast tracks, and the poa annua greens and difficult scoring venues should suit his game. For anyone that is worried about his trip to Torrey Pines potentially derailing his current stride, the previous two times that he has missed a cut on tour, he has responded with a top-seven showing.
Cantlay is the sixth most expensive player on DraftKings at $9,800 and could remain relatively under-owned due to his high pricing and earlier result in California. He makes for a safe cash-game option that should yield a quality result this week, and he has the upside to capture his second career title on the PGA Tour.
Waste Management Sleepers
Rafa Cabrera-Bello at 50/1, DK Price $8,300, FD Price $10,600.
I am adding Rafa Cabrera-Bello to account for the departure of Patrick Cantlay. The Spaniard is a great par-four scorer that will give himself a plethora of birdie opportunities because of his pristine iron play. Cabrera-Bello has posted two consecutive top-15 showings in America, and even though he is still looking for his first victory in the states, the 32nd-ranked player in the world is underpriced due to his lack of exposure on the PGA Tour. Pebble Beach is a venue that should highlight his links-style game, and the weather shouldn't be anything too out of the ordinary for him. At $8,300 on DraftKings, he makes for a nice value play in all settings and can be easily paired with the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day.
Russell Henley - 90/1, DK Price $7,600, FD Price $9,500
Russell Henley was on an 11-tournament run of failing to provide a top-25 showing up until the Waste Management Open last week, where he broke the streak and finished the event in a share of 15th place. During the poor stretch of golf, Henley missed seven cuts and fell exactly 50 spots in the world rankings.
Now ranked 101st in the world, Henley hasn't been a stranger to lapses in the past. He only managed to make 13 of 26 cuts in 2016 before following it up by making 21 of 24 cuts in 2017. Those sorts of irregularities in results have shifted Henley to a territory in odds that I believe are now too high. There is still a chance that the 29-year-old hasn't quite found his game yet, but at a venue that will reward accuracy and short iron play, the three-time PGA Tour winner is most likely around double the price he would have been if he were entering the event with any form whatsoever. The reasoning is rather simple and to the point, but the style of his game should yield productivity if he can build from the momentum he gained in Phoenix. At 90/1, I will be a buyer that he found something last week.
Corey Conners - 125/1, DK Price $7,100, FD Price $8,500
Corey Conners is the ultimate flier when it comes to production. Since the fall portion of the 2019 season, the Canadian has only made three of seven cuts on tour but has produced top-25 finishes in each tournament where he made the weekend --highlighted by a solo second place finish at the Sanderson Farms and share of third at the Sony Open. The boom-or-bust potential to his game is excellent for outright wagering and GPP contests, but his results aren't for the faint of heart.
In his lone showing at Pebble Beach last season, Conners missed the cut, and he enters the event this year off of a missed cut at the Desert Classic. However, there are a few reasons to be optimistic about his game. The 27-year-old is a great striker of the ball who hits a high percentage of greens in regulation. Coming into the week, Conners is ranked 7th on tour this season in greens in regulation, which stems from his outstanding short iron play -- ranking seventh in the field between 100-150 yards.
The Kent State product is a good driver of the ball when it comes to both length and accuracy and could find himself in a position of being able to attack the pins from his preferred range all week. The only issue is that at $7,100 on DraftKings, Conners is expected to be one of the chalkier options on the board. The increased ownership does give me some hesitation when it comes to using him in GPP contests this week, and with the volatility that he possesses, game-theory would suggest that a full-fade of Conners isn't a terrible idea. I would prefer to play him as an outright wager over anything else and will gladly take a triple-digit number and be on my way.
Jim Furyk - 125/1, DK Price $7,000, FD Price $9,400
Jim Furyk is probably a better each-way bet than an outright wager this week, but most people will overlook him because of his age, and that could be a big mistake. There are very few courses left in the world that the 48-year-old would be able to compete with the bigger hitters on tour, but Pebble Beach is a venue that will reward his more precise game. In Furyk's previous 50 rounds compared to the field at courses under 7,200 yards, he ranks second in strokes gained approach, third in proximity between 100-125 yards, fourth in greens in regulation and sixth in strokes gained around the green.
A lot will need to go right for the 17-time PGA Tour winner to find the winner's circle again, but with Pebble Beach's history of off the wall winners, it is more likely than it may seem. Furyk held the 54-hole lead here in 2015 before eventually fading into seventh place on Sunday, and at a price tag of $7,000 on DraftKings and less than five percent projected ownership, he makes for an interesting swing for the fence option. Furyk plays so infrequently now that some of his recent results will be overshadowed, but the 241st-ranked player in the world has produced two top-six showings in his previous four events.
Bonus Bomb
Ryan Armour - 175/1, DK Price $7,200, FD Price $7,900
If narrowing the fairways increases the difficulty for players to avoid the rough on their tee shots, a player like Ryan Armour could find success at Pebble Beach. The American comes into the week ranked fifth on tour in accuracy off the tee, connecting with 74.88 percent of fairways. His stellar precision has also helped him to be ranked 25th in proximity to the hole on his approach shots.
Armour's respectable proximity numbers are interesting because he comes into the week ranked just 140th in strokes gained approach. I think a lot of that comes from the fact that the 114th-ranked player in the world struggles with his long irons. Being accurate off the tee helps him to succeed at shorter holes, but the issues start taking place once the hole exceeds his length capabilities. All three venues will play under 7,000 yards, and Armour does have two top-30 showings here in his past three attempts. At 175/1, the 42-year-old could be a hot putter away from having a chance to break into the top 10 at Pebble Beach. Armour is only projected to be owned at slightly under four percent on DraftKings and is worth a flier as a contrarian option.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
This is the last week for a while that I won't be featuring a head-to-head wager. If you can't tell, I want to limit my exposure as much as I can for this event. If something changes, I will update the article before Thursday, but I'd prefer to not get caught up in a weather-filled guessing game.
2019 Head-to-Head Record (7-3-2)
+5.05 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66/1 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110/1 |
T2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80/1 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80/1 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10/1 |
3 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13/1 |
T5 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25/1 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60/1 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28/1 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150/1 |
T10 |
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