RADIO
Shane Lowry gained +4.4 strokes on approach today, which is his third best iron display since 2017, where my database begins. It is also only the third time he has eclipsed four strokes on approach in that span. Lowry does however, own the 30th best singular round of approach in Data Golf's history tool, gaining +6.04 on approach in 2016 ... at the Honda Classic. He loves this venue! To nerd out a little more on Lowry's Florida fetish, he has gained 2+ strokes on approach in 42 (14%) of his last 297 rounds, 6 of those 42 coming at PGA National.
The reason Shane got the full first paragraph despite being tied with two other golfers for first place, three shots clear of the chasing pack, is because the other two co-leaders are Austin Eckroat (101st in OWGR) and David Skinns (278th). Skinns co-leads this event after missing his first four cuts in 2024. Eckroat has shown a little more form entering the week, with a T8 in November's RSM Classic, but nothing better than T25 in 2024. Min Woo Lee is the only notable chaser of the five golfers tied for T4, with 15 golfers sitting 5 shots back in T11. A fascinating R4 showdown slate.
You can find me on Twitter/X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model, which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord. Code NEW will get you 30% off our PGA platinum package, which ends up being $17.40 a month. Basically a "top-10 golfer in the world priced in the $7K range" kinda value, if you want my honest opinion.
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
You can click the most expensive six names in the top 5 and still have $3,400 left over. Another reason this slate is even more fascinating. If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks... don't be like the 25+ people who play these six guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win and split it with 1.5% of the field ... IF you it the nutz? The chance the leaderboard ends up looking like this tomorrow is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Weather
This looks like round 1 of this week's event, where scores averaged the second lowest of this events history. Expect tons of birdies and DFS points without finishing positions to eclipse 60 like they did in round 1. Especially if the rain in the morning softens up the course for the leaders, we could see some low scores.
Round 4 Strategy
There is no real weather edge tomorrow as the wind seems to be very calm for most of the day. This presents us with a very intriguing scenario as we have three golfers three shots clear of the chasing pack. Lowry is not renowned for making tons of birdies, despite shooting 67, 67, 66 in his first three rounds. If one were to roster the three leaders, you would have an average of $300 more per golfer than you started with. This will likely be a very popular start, with Lowry + Eckroat starts arguably even more popular if people decide Skinns doesn't have what it takes to close out.
The easy scoring conditions are tempting me to simply ignore the three guys in the front, leaving everybody else on the table to choose from, hoping that the three out front stumble and allow a few chasers to win this event, or at least make enough birdies to outscore the guys who started with a three-shot lead.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for Round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $1 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
$10,000+
Favorite play: "Rory McIlroy lurking down the leaderboard is one of the scarier DFS options in golf. He is capable of going nuclear in a final round and really playing sensational golf when he plays freely. He gets to start on first base with the way he drives a golf ball. He has had good and bad rounds at this venue and hopefully he can add to the good round column after tomorrow." - Genesis Invitational writeup ... here we go again. Hopefully Rory can give us THAT round we have all been looking for.
Other considerations:
$9,000+
Favorite play: Tom Kim gets our support one last time. He made quite a few birdies and an eagle today, but there were too many doubles and bogeys involved too. We need flawless golf from the young star if he is going to pay off for us tomorrow. He may not eclipse 10% in certain contests, which we are hoping to take advantage of as he only sits three back of fourth place.
Other considerations: Byeong Hun An
$8,000+
Favorite play: Jake Knapp played three consecutive rounds with Rory McIlroy and on a Saturday with a few shots between him and the 36 hole leader, he got off to a bit of a nervy start. Knapp has shown us that he can play on just about any course his Sunday Charge factor is one of the best, having exceptionally low rounds under his belt when coming from behind on the KFT and the PGA. A lot to like from somebody who is $8,800 and only 5 shots back of the leaders.
Other considerations: Matthieu Pavon, Keith Mitchell Erik Van Rooyen, Andrew Novak
$7,000+
Favorite play: Victor Perez is our first of two golfers tied for T4. He has shown the ability to play good golf when chasing down leaders on the DPWT and has also been playing really good golf this week. We are leaning on him in this range as ownership shouldn't be as high as the more expensive options who are also tied for T4. He has the best R4 scoring average in the field!
Other considerations:
$6,000+
Favorite play: Alexander Bjork sits in T26 and is $6,800 with one of the best R4 scoring averages in this field too. He graded out really well pre-event and hopefully can surge up the leaderboard at roughly 5% ownership and really give our lineups some low-key, high-upside leverage! He is going to be in a lot of my lineups!
Other considerations: Ben Silverman, Jacob Bridgeman, Parker Coody
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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