RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 16 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the 15th week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 15, we saw stat lines such as the Miami Dolphins running back room combining for 161 rushing yards, the Indianapolis Colts wide receiver room combining for eight targets, and the Kansas City Chiefs tight end room combining for 191 receiving yards.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Kansas City Chiefs Running Backs
Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chiefs | 19.75 | 83.5 | 0.5 | 4.75 | 6.94 | 36.5 | 0.19 |
| Andy Reid Prior (352 games) | 19.97 | 87.43 | 0.64 | 4.94 | 6.74 | 42.64 | 0.28 |
| Eric Bieniemy Prior (48 games) | 19.17 | 83.08 | 0.71 | 4.94 | 6.38 | 42.42 | 0.38 |
| Chiefs RBs vs. Los Angeles Chargers | 14 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
In the Thursday Night thriller against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs running backs combined for 14 carries, 44 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, two receptions, five targets, 18 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has now totaled 258 carries (18.43 per game), 1072 rushing yards (76.57 per game), nine rushing touchdowns (0.64 per game), 70 receptions (five per game), 90 targets (6.43 per game), 615 receiving yards (43.93 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.29 per game). Based on all of this information, it's clear that the Kansas City Chiefs running back room had a down game this past week but the season averages are right in line with what we'd expect from Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy running back room.
Fantasy players this impacts: Darrel Williams, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Derrick Gore, and Jerick McKinnon
Indianapolis Colts Wide Receivers
Frank Reich & Marcus Brady
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Colts | 10.94 | 17.56 | 148.44 | 0.69 |
| Frank Reich Prior (112 games) | 11.68 | 19.18 | 145.38 | 0.89 |
| Colts WRs vs. New England Patriots | 3 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
The Indianapolis Colts wide receiver room did not see much work against the New England Patriots on Saturday night as they combined for three receptions on eight targets for 49 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 146 receptions (10.43 per game) on 235 targets (16.79 per game) for 1804 receiving yards (128.86 per game) and 12 receiving touchdowns (0.86 per game). Clearly, the Indianapolis Colts wide receivers underperformed on Saturday, and there may be room for growth on the season averages for this group down the stretch.
Fantasy players this impacts: T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal, Ashton Dulin, Parris Campbell
Indianapolis Colts Tight Ends
Frank Reich & Marcus Brady
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Colts | 5.13 | 7.44 | 55.94 | 0.5 |
| Frank Reich Prior (112 games) | 6.32 | 9.47 | 69.29 | 0.69 |
| Colts TEs vs. New England Patriots | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Much like the wide receiver room, the Indianapolis Colts tight end room wasn't utilized much against the New England Patriots, combining for one reception on two targets for zero receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season this group has now totaled 55 receptions (3.93 per game) on 88 targets (6.29 per game) for 610 receiving yards (43.57 per game) and seven receiving touchdowns (0.5 per game). The Indianapolis Colts' tight ends have been underwhelming this year compared to what we've typically seen from Frank Reich's tight end room, but nonetheless, they should have better performances in future weeks than what we saw last Saturday.
Fantasy players this impacts: Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Kylen Granson
New England Patriots Running Backs
Josh McDaniels
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Patriots | 21.31 | 102.81 | 0.5 | 5.44 | 7.06 | 46.06 | 0.31 |
| Josh McDaniels Prior (236 games) | 24.32 | 103.95 | 0.85 | 5.16 | 7.10 | 45.06 | 0.28 |
| Patriots RBs vs. Indianapolis Colts | 14 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
The New England Patriots running backs combined for just 14 carries, 39 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, four receptions, six targets, 45 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Indianapolis Colts last Saturday night. On the season this group has now totaled 337 carries (24.07 per game), 1466 rushing yards (104.71 per game), 15 rushing touchdowns (1.07 per game), 77 receptions (5.5 per game), 88 targets (6.29 per game), 651 receiving yards (46.5 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.07 per game). Looking at the data, it's clear that there will be better performances in the future for the Patriots' running backs if Josh McDaniels's previous success is any indicator.
Fantasy players this impacts: Rhamondre Stevenson, Brandon Bolden, and Damien Harris
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs
Greg Roman
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Ravens | 22.63 | 117.94 | 1.06 | 2.38 | 3.19 | 19.94 | 0 |
| Greg Roman Prior (114 games) | 23.80 | 108.26 | 0.81 | 2.38 | 3.35 | 19.66 | 0.11 |
| Ravens RBs vs. Green Bay Packers | 13 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Baltimore Ravens running backs combined for just 13 carries, 70 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, two receptions, four targets, five receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Green Bay Packers defense this past Sunday. On the year this group has now totaled 263 carries (18.79 per game), 1038 rushing yards (74.14 per game), 12 rushing touchdowns (0.86 per game), 48 receptions (3.43 per game), 64 targets (4.57 per game), 326 receiving yards (23.29 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.07 per game). Looking at past data, Greg Roman has typically gotten a lot more out of his running backs than what we saw this past Sunday and it is likely that we see better numbers in the last couple of weeks of the season from this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, Ty'Son Williams, and J.K. Dobbins
New Orleans Saints Running Backs
Sean Payton & Pete Carmichael Jr.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Saints | 22.69 | 107.31 | 1.25 | 6.81 | 8.69 | 59.94 | 0.38 |
| Sean Payton Prior (272 games) | 23.54 | 103.86 | 0.88 | 7.20 | 9.19 | 56.17 | 0.25 |
| Pete Carmichael Jr. Prior (192 games) | 22.81 | 104.02 | 0.85 | 7.59 | 9.56 | 59.56 | 0.31 |
| Saints RBs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 0 |
In a defense-heavy matchup against the Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football, the New Orleans Saints running backs combined for 20 carries, 28 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, four receptions, 10 targets, 21 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season the New Orleans Saints running backs have totaled 297 carries (21.21 per game), 1040 rushing yards (74.29 per game), five rushing touchdowns (0.36 per game), 66 receptions (4.71 per game), 91 targets (6.5 per game), 534 receiving yards (38.14 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.29 per game). Clearly, this past week was disappointing for the Saints running backs. While it is important to note that Sean Payton didn't actually get the opportunity to coach the Saints on Sunday as he was in COVID protocols, they did still have offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael to direct the offense against the Buccaneers and the numbers for the Saints running backs were still very disappointing compared to his career averages. Going forward, there should be a bit of a bounce-back from the Saints running back room in the last couple of weeks of the season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II, Tony Jones Jr.
Decline Ahead?
A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's playcaller tendencies in the past.
Miami Dolphins Running Backs
George Godsey & Eric Studesville
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Dolphins | 21.56 | 84.25 | 0.63 | 4.75 | 5.81 | 39.88 | 0.13 |
| George Godsey Prior (32 games) | 25.94 | 102.59 | 0.34 | 4.59 | 6.09 | 32.06 | 0.19 |
| Eric Studesville Prior (4 games) | 22.5 | 79 | 0.5 | 5 | 6.75 | 47.25 | 0.25 |
| Dolphins RBs vs. New York Jets | 32 | 161 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
The Miami Dolphins running back room combined for 32 carries, 161 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, one reception, one target, 20 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 290 carries (20.71 per game), 1025 rushing yards (73.21 per game), six rushing touchdowns (0.43 per game), 64 receptions (4.57 per game), 84 targets (six per game), 381 receiving yards (27.21 per game), and four receiving touchdowns (0.29 per game). Looking at the current season averages as well as both of the Dolphins offensive coordinators' career averages prior to this season, it seems clear that Sunday's performance was on the higher end of what we should expect. Temper expectations for this group next week.
Fantasy players this impacts: Myles Gaskin, Duke Johnson, Salvon Ahmed, Malcolm Brown, and Phillip Lindsay
Tennessee Titans Running Backs
Todd Downing
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Titans | 28.94 | 149.31 | 1.13 | 2.13 | 3.31 | 12.56 | 0.13 |
| Todd Downing Prior (16 games) | 20 | 82.44 | 0.63 | 5.06 | 7 | 37.75 | 0.13 |
| Titans RBs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 37 | 183 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
The Tennessee Titans running backs combined for 37 carries, 183 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, nine receptions, 12 targets, 62 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers. On the season this group has now totaled 393 carries (28.07 per game), 1717 rushing yards (122.64 per game), 13 rushing touchdowns (0.93 per game), 73 receptions (5.21 per game), 92 targets (6.57 per game), 580 receiving yards (41.43 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.07 per game). Comparing this data with what we've typically seen from Todd Downing's running back room prior to this year, it appears that this group is running on the higher side of what we should expect. Don't be surprised if there's a dip in the season averages in the near future.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dontrell Hilliard, D'Onta Foreman, Darrynton Evans, Derrick Henry
Kansas City Chiefs Tight Ends
Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Chiefs | 7.38 | 10.31 | 94.69 | 0.69 |
| Andy Reid Prior (352 games) | 4.75 | 7.37 | 55.22 | 0.40 |
| Eric Bieniemy Prior (48 games) | 7.10 | 10.31 | 90.85 | 0.60 |
| Chiefs TEs vs. Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 14 | 191 | 2 |
Travis Kelce and the rest of the Kansas City Chiefs tight ends combined for 10 receptions, 14 targets, 191 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns against the Chargers this past week. On the season this group has now totaled 92 receptions (6.57 per game) on 138 targets (9.86 per game) for 1125 receiving yards (80.36 per game) and eight receiving touchdowns (0.57 per game). While Thursday's performance is certainly on the higher end of what we should expect from a tight end room in general, the current season averages are right in line with what we've come to expect from an Andy Reid & Eric Bieniemy tight end room in recent years (where they've had Travis Kelce). Don't necessarily expect another game like last Thursday, but the season averages are definitely sustainable.
Fantasy players this impacts: Travis Kelce & Blake Bell
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