RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 11 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
We now enter the 10th week of this series, where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 10, we saw stat lines such as the Atlanta Falcons wide receivers combining for 36 receiving yards, the Dallas Cowboys tight ends combining for four targets, and the Detroit Lions running backs combining to total 227 rushing yards.
After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
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Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Atlanta Falcons Wide Receivers
Arthur Smith & Dave Ragone
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Falcons | 16.5 | 24.69 | 216.5 | 1.31 |
| Arthur Smith Prior (32 games) | 11.06 | 16.41 | 162.19 | 1.13 |
| Atlanta Falcons WRs vs. Dallas Cowboys | 4 | 15 | 36 | 0 |
The Atlanta Falcons' wide receiver room combined for four receptions on 15 targets for 36 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns this past Sunday. On the season, the Atlanta Falcons' wide receiver room has now totaled 83 receptions (9.22 per game), 136 targets (15.11 per game), 838 receiving yards (93.11 per game), and six receiving touchdowns (0.67 per game). Based on this information, the workload is roughly in line with what we'd expect from an Arthur Smith wide receiver room, but the efficiency (receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns) is well below expectations for this group. It's likely we see a little bounce-back in the efficiency department for this group in future weeks, but in terms of workload, you shouldn't expect much to change for this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: Russell Gage, Tajae Sharpe, Calvin Ridley, and Olamide Zaccheaus
Dallas Cowboys Tight Ends
Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Cowboys | 4.69 | 6.56 | 46.06 | 0.25 |
| Mike McCarthy Prior (316 games) | 3.67 | 5.77 | 39.09 | 0.32 |
| Kellen Moore Prior (32 games) | 5.31 | 7.22 | 51.16 | 0.34 |
| Cowboys TEs vs. Atlanta Falcons | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
The Dallas Cowboys' tight end room was not really needed in the domination of the Atlanta Falcons as they combined for just three receptions on four targets for 29 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, the Dallas Cowboys' tight end room has totaled 50 receptions (5.56 per game), 70 targets (7.78 per game), 543 receiving yards (60.33 per game), and five receiving touchdowns (0.56 per game) on the season. Overall, Sunday's performance was on the lower side of what we should expect from the Cowboys' tight end room, but their season totals are actually higher than what we'd normally expect from a Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore tight end room.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin
Indianapolis Colts Wide Receivers
Frank Reich & Marcus Brady
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Colts | 10.94 | 17.56 | 148.44 | 0.69 |
| Frank Reich Prior (112 games) | 11.68 | 19.18 | 145.38 | 0.89 |
| Colts WRs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars | 9 | 13 | 101 | 0 |
The Indianapolis Colts' wide receiver room combined for nine receptions on 13 targets for 101 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, the Colts' wide receiver room has totaled 118 receptions (11.8 per game), 181 targets (18.1 per game), 1444 receiving yards (144.4 per game), and nine receiving touchdowns (0.9 per game) on the year. Based on this information, we should expect better days than this past Sunday for the Indianapolis Colts wide receiver room that is more in line with Frank Reich's career averages with the group.
Fantasy players this impacts: T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Ashton Dulin, Parris Campbell, and Michael Pittman Jr.
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs
Greg Roman
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Ravens | 22.63 | 117.94 | 1.06 | 2.38 | 3.19 | 19.94 | 0 |
| Greg Roman Prior (114 games) | 23.80 | 108.26 | 0.81 | 2.38 | 3.35 | 19.66 | 0.11 |
| Ravens RBs vs. Miami Dolphins | 13 | 36 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
The Baltimore Ravens' running back room combined for just 13 carries, 36 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, four targets, 23 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins. After last Thursday's game, the Baltimore Ravens' running back room has totaled 168 carries (18.67 per game), 703 rushing yards (78.11 per game), nine rushing touchdowns (one per game), 25 receptions (2.78 per game), 35 targets (3.89 per game), 194 receiving yards (21.56 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.11 per game) on the season. We should expect the 2021 Baltimore Ravens' running back room to be a little worse than the typical Greg Roman running back room because of the injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. But even factoring in injuries, it's likely we see better performances from this group than last Thursday's poor performance.
Fantasy players this impacts: Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Ty'Son Williams
Arizona Cardinals Wide Receivers
Kliff Kingsbury
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts | WR Rec. Yds | WR Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Cardinals | 16.13 | 23.5 | 180.25 | 0.94 |
| Kliff Kingsbury Prior (32 games) | 15.5 | 23.59 | 174.34 | 0.88 |
| Cardinals WRs vs. Carolina Panthers | 10 | 18 | 72 | 0 |
The Arizona Cardinals' wide receivers combined for 10 receptions on 18 targets for 72 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers. The Arizona Cardinals' wide receiver room has now totaled 152 receptions (15.2 per game) on 204 targets (20.4 per game) for 1980 receiving yards (198 per game) and 15 receiving touchdowns (1.5 per game) on the season. Kliff Kingsbury is one of the better coaches in the league for wide receiver fantasy success, so almost assuredly we will see better performances from this group than this past week against the Panthers.
Fantasy players this impacts: Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, and DeAndre Hopkins
Miami Dolphins Running Backs
George Godsey & Eric Studesville
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Dolphins | 21.56 | 84.25 | 0.63 | 4.75 | 5.81 | 39.88 | 0.13 |
| George Godsey Prior (32 games) | 25.94 | 102.59 | 0.34 | 4.59 | 6.09 | 32.06 | 0.19 |
| Eric Studesville (4 games) | 22.5 | 79 | 0.5 | 5 | 6.75 | 47.25 | 0.25 |
| Dolphins RBs vs. Baltimore Ravens | 16 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
The Miami Dolphins' running back room combined for just 16 carries, 37 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, three receptions, four targets, 25 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens. On the season, this group has now totaled 174 carries (17.4 per game), 578 rushing yards (57.8 per game), two rushing touchdowns (0.2 per game), 52 receptions (5.2 per game), 71 targets (7.1 per game), 320 receiving yards (32 per game), and three receiving touchdowns (0.3 per game). Based on how co-offensive coordinators George Godsey and Eric Studesville have utilized their running backs in the past, it appears that there's still potential room for growth for the Dolphins' running backs this season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed, and Malcolm Brown
Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs
Greg Olson
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Raiders | 24.63 | 101.56 | 1 | 4.63 | 5.94 | 31.44 | 0 |
| Greg Olson Prior (188 games) | 20.96 | 85.73 | 0.49 | 4.96 | 6.56 | 38.07 | 0.07 |
| Raiders RBs vs. Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
The Las Vegas Raiders' running back room combined for 11 carries, 32 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, eight receptions, nine targets, 38 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On the season, this group has now totaled 172 carries (19.11 per game), 653 rushing yards (72.56 per game), eight rushing touchdowns (0.89 per game), 60 receptions (6.67 per game), 74 targets (8.22 per game), 497 receiving yards (55.22 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.11 per game). Based on this information, it seems unlikely that this group has many more poor performances like the one on Sunday Night Football going forward, but the upside of the Raiders' running backs may be a little lower with Greg Olson calling the plays rather than Jon Gruden earlier this season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, and Jalen Richard
Detroit Lions Tight Ends
Dan Campbell & Anthony Lynn
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts | TE Rec. Yds | TE Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Lions | 5.19 | 8 | 56.19 | 0.5 |
| Dan Campbell Prior (12 games) | 3.42 | 5.5 | 28.58 | 0.33 |
| Anthony Lynn Prior (78 games) | 4.33 | 6.59 | 49.27 | 0.36 |
| Lions TEs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
The Detroit Lions' tight end room was very disappointing against the Pittsburgh Steelers as they combined for just one reception on three targets for two receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, the Detroit Lions' tight end room has totaled 53 receptions (5.89 per game) on 72 targets (eight per game) for 493 receiving yards (54.78 per game) and two receiving touchdowns (0.22 per game) on the season. It seems unlikely that we see another performance as bad as this past week for the Detroit Lions' tight ends, and there may be a bit of a buy-low opportunity on Hockenson if you believe the touchdown averages will return to the level of Anthony Lynn's previous tight end rooms.
Fantasy players this impacts: T.J. Hockenson
Decline Ahead?
A mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
Detroit Lions Running Backs
Dan Campbell & Anthony Lynn
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Lions | 20.19 | 81.94 | 1.06 | 5.06 | 6.56 | 41.63 | 0.19 |
| Dan Campbell Prior (12 games) | 19.83 | 86.5 | 0.75 | 5.42 | 6.83 | 49.17 | 0.17 |
| Anthony Lynn Prior (78 games) | 22.81 | 101.26 | 0.82 | 6.71 | 8.50 | 57.15 | 0.35 |
| Lions RBs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers | 38 | 227 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
The Detroit Lions' running backs combined for 38 carries, 227 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, three receptions, six targets, five receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, the Detroit Lions' running back room has totaled 204 carries (22.67 per game), 852 rushing yards (94.67 per game), six rushing touchdowns (0.67 per game), 73 receptions (8.11 per game), 88 targets (9.78 per game), 582 receiving yards (64.67 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.22 per game) on the season. While it's unlikely that we see the Lions' running backs get 38+ carries in another game this season, the 2021 Lions backfield's current season averages are right around what we'd expect from the typical Anthony Lynn running back room.
Fantasy players this impacts: D'Andre Swift, Jermar Jefferson, Godwin Igwebuike, and Jamaal Williams
Carolina Panthers Running Backs
Matt Rhule & Joe Brady
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Panthers | 17.94 | 70.31 | 0.75 | 5.63 | 6.56 | 38.44 | 0.25 |
| Matt Rhule & Joe Brady Prior (16 games) | 17.94 | 70.31 | 0.75 | 5.63 | 6.56 | 38.44 | 0.25 |
| Panthers RBs vs. Arizona Cardinals | 31 | 146 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 93 | 0 |
The Carolina Panthers' running backs combined for 31 carries, 146 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, 14 receptions, 14 targets, 93 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. This group has now totaled 238 carries (23.8 per game), 901 rushing yards (90.1 per game), four rushing touchdowns (0.4 per game), 63 receptions (6.3 per game), 80 targets (eight per game), 590 receiving yards (59 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the season after this game. Even though we know Christian McCaffrey provides a big boost to this group's numbers, it appears that the 2021 Carolina Panthers' running back room's usage is running on the higher side of what we should expect from a Matt Rhule & Joe Brady running back room and there could be a slight dip in the season averages in future weeks.
Fantasy players this impacts: Christian McCaffrey, Royce Freeman, and Chuba Hubbard
Buffalo Bills Running Backs
Brian Daboll
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds | RB Rush TD | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds | RB Rec. TD | |
| 2020 Bills | 18.13 | 81.31 | 0.5 | 3.38 | 4.56 | 25.38 | 0.13 |
| Brian Daboll Prior (112 games) | 23.02 | 96.44 | 0.44 | 3.85 | 5.18 | 28.32 | 0.10 |
| Bills RBs vs. New York Jets | 17 | 98 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 |
The Buffalo Bills' running back room had a great day against the New York Jets where they combined for 17 carries, 98 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, four receptions, four targets, 28 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. After this game, this group has now totaled 159 carries (17.67 per game), 690 rushing yards (76.67 per game), seven rushing touchdowns (0.78 per game), 43 receptions (4.77 per game), 56 targets (6.22 per game), 276 receiving yards (30.67 per game), and two receiving touchdowns (0.22 per game) on the season. Going forward, there is likely some regression from the Bills' running backs in the touchdown department, but the other season averages are roughly around what we expect from a Brian Daboll running back room at this point of his career.
Fantasy players this impacts: Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Matt Breida
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