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Joe Nicely digs into his daily fantasy Power Pivot contrarian selections for Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season, featuring low-ownership-percentage players who can help your NFL DFS lineups for DraftKings GPP tournaments.
Hi fantasy football friends! Thanks for checking out Power Pivots, where we discuss some great alternative DraftKings options to players that we expect to carry high ownership.
I hope you caught last week's article because our highlighted pivots were spot-on. While we fell a little short on our D/ST pick, every position player that we discussed actually exceeded their chalkier counterpart in DraftKings points!
As I mentioned in last week's article, ownership consideration should come at the end of your weekly DFS research process. Expected popularity or low ownership shouldn't be your main reason for rostering a player. However, we can often gain leverage in GPP's by pivoting to a player that doesn't project to be as popular with the general public. This article is meant to highlight some of those pivot options for you.
Author's Note: All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
Week 3 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
QB CHALK: Patrick Mahomes ($7,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 15.64% *UPDATED: 14.29%
POWER PIVOT: Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7.26% *UPDATED: 12.38%
Patrick Mahomes appears to be a superstar in the making. He's like a new toy that all the kids in the neighborhood want to play with and many in the DFS community are excited to get him in their lineups this week. Mahomes is projected to garner the highest ownership of the week at the QB position at 15.64% and Kansas City carries the highest projected team point total at 31.5.
There's a lot to like about Mahomes this week, but the man that will be playing QB against Mahomes is an intriguing pivot for those that want to attempt to gain some leverage on the field in GPP's and still gain some exposure to this juicy matchup that has a slate-high 55.5 point total. Jimmy Garoppolo is priced at $500 less than Mahomes and is projected to have half the ownership. Though his numbers have been solid through the 49ers first two games, he hasn't produced stats that jump off the page. Despite his mediocre numbers, there are some interesting reasons to give Jimmy G a long look this week. My two favorite things about the San Fran QB are his matchup and the expected game script.
Garoppolo will be facing a Kansas City secondary that has been absolutely shredded in its first two games. In the season opener at Los Angeles, the Chiefs were lit up by Philip Rivers to the tune of 424 yards and 4 TDs, with Rivers logging 33.00 DraftKings points. Things didn't get any better for the Kansas City defense last week in Pittsburgh, as Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger destroyed the Chiefs for 452 yards, 3 TDs, and 42.0 DraftKings points. Through the first two weeks, KC has a DVOA ranking of 31st against the pass. In short...this secondary is very bad.
We also have to love the expected game script in this matchup. Current Vegas odds list KC as a 6.5 point favorite over San Fran. We know that the Chiefs offense can score, but we also know that their defense has been horrid through two games. In our dream scenario, Garoppolo will be forced to keep up with Kansas City and be slinging the ball for four quarters in an attempt to keep his team in the game. As we've seen from both Rivers and Roethlisberger, a QB that's trailing can rack up fantasy points in bunches against this KC secondary.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
It looks like we were ahead of the curve on several plays this week and Jimmy G's ownership projection has nearly doubled since Thursday. I was very interested in the San Fran QB at 7-ish% ownership, but I don't love his newfound popularity. If his ownership projections stay this close to Mahomes, I would rather just go with Mahomes or drop down the salary scale to Deshaun Watson who is projected at 10% ownership.
RB CHALK: Tevin Coleman ($6,400)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 16.67% *UPDATED: 14.49%
POWER PIVOT: Jordan Howard ($6,500)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7.73% *UPDATED: 9.06%
Tevin Coleman was a popular DFS option last week when he filled in for the injured Devonta Freeman. With Freeman still sidelined, Coleman will remain in the starting lineup for Atlanta again this week in what's expected to be a high scoring affair against the New Orleans Saints. A lot of folks are in a hurry to go back to the Coleman well this week, despite a $1,100 salary increase and the fact that Ito Smith soaked up nine carries from Coleman against Carolina.
Similar to my thought process with Jimmy Garoppolo, I'm very interested in moving from Coleman to Jordan Howard at $6,500 due to matchup and expected game script. The Chicago running back has been relatively quiet in his first two games, but Howard has run hard and shown surprisingly good receiving ability out of the backfield, logging eight receptions on nine targets for 58 yards. He is locked in as Chicago's workhorse back as Tarik Cohen has only toted the ball nine times in the first two games.
Howard heads to Arizona for a nice matchup against a Cardinals defense that has been less than stellar this season. The Cardinals have looked lifeless under first-year Coach Steven Wilks, with this defense allowing the ghost of Adrian Peterson to go for 23.6 DraftKings points in Week 1. While some would say that limiting Todd Gurley to 2.2 YPC in Week 2 was a step in the right direction for the Cards, those that actually watched the game know that a significant chunk of Gurley's carries took place inside the 5-yard line, thus skewing his YPC stats. At the end of the day, Gurley romped to 32.3 DraftKings points in a little less than three quarters.
In a game that Chicago enters as a six-point favorite, I kind of love the idea of pairing Howard with the Bears DEF/ST in DraftKings lineups this week. If the game goes according to plan and Chicago is protecting a lead, Howard has a great chance to log 20-plus carries.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
We've seen a ton of shakeup at the RB position. Injuries are playing a major factor. Corey Clement is expected to be the most popular RB with a salary of only $4,300. With both Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles ruled out, Clement is projected to garner a massive 33.13% ownership share. Dalvin Cook will be out with Latavius Murray stepping in for a Minnesota team that is in a great spot. Murray's current projections sit at 12.92%. I have tons of interest in Cincy RB Gio Bernard at $5,900, who will be filling in for Joe Mixon. Bernard is an acceptable runner, but should have great usage as a receiver out of the backfield. His ownership projection is a surprisingly low 7.25%, as I imagine many folks are worried about the matchup with Carolina.
WR CHALK: Sammy Watkins ($5,100)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 8.61% *UPDATED: 9.19%
POWER PIVOT: John Brown ($4,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 3.69% *UPDATED: 3.82%
Sammy Watkins is kind of like a magical unicorn. He shows up a couple times a year, looks like one of the most explosive players in the league, then disappears and re-emerges only to ink a huge contract with a team that can't resist the temptation of his talent. Watkins had a "unicorn game" against the Steelers last week, racking up 22.1 DK points. While Watkins most definitely has GPP upside this week, I'm leery of both his career pattern of inconsistency and KC's willingness to spread the ball around.
I'm much more comfortable with John Brown this week. The speedster has hit the ground running (or catching) in Baltimore, with DraftKings outings of 13.5 and 19.2 points in his first two games of 2018. I was slightly surprised to see Brown's ownership projected to be so low. This is an example of something I see happen surprisingly often in DFS situations...people letting perception dictate their decisions.
Brown faces Denver this week in what many perceive to be a difficult matchup. Despite their great reputation, through two games this season the hyped Denver defense hasn't been very impressive. They currently rank an eye-popping 30th in yards allowed per pass. The Broncos relinquished almost 300 yards in the air to Russell Wilson in Week 1 and were carved up by Derek Carr last week at home. Brown should get plenty of opportunities this week after having seen 16 targets in Baltimore's first two games. Denver has been effective at stopping the run, which could force the Ravens to turn to the passing attack this week. That will be good news for Brown, who has attracted nearly a quarter of Baltimore's targets through two games.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
Not much movement on our highlighted players. Julio Jones has skyrocketed to the top of the ownership projections with a massive 32.51% thanks to his discounted $7,900 price tag.
TE CHALK: Travis Kelce ($6,700)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 11.18% *UPDATED: 7.60%
POWER PIVOT: Zach Ertz ($6,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 4.79% *UPDATED: 11.14%
I promise I don't hate the Chiefs, even though this is the third KC player in this week's article. Like Patrick Mahomes and Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce will have a lot of DFS players ready to hop on his bandwagon in Week 3 after a huge outing against Pittsburgh. Kansas City will just be soooo popular this week that it makes tons of sense, from a leverage standpoint, to explore viable pivot options.
Believe it or not, I actually don't mind going up in price from Kelce to Zach Ertz at $6,800. We can grab the Philly tight end at less than half of Kelce's ownership in a week that Ertz is getting his best buddy Carson Wentz back from injury. We have to keep in mind that Wentz was the NFL MVP front-runner before going down with a torn ACL in Week 14 last year, so he offers an immediate and huge talent upgrade from Nick Foles.
Ertz is a favorite red-zone option for Wentz, as the combo hooked up for eight red-zone TD's in less than a full season last year. Ertz has been a target monster in 2018, having already been targeted 23 times through two games! With the Eagles receiving corps resembling an episode of The Walking Dead, he should continue to get all the targets he can handle for a Philly offense with a Vegas projected team total of 27 points in a matchup against a pedestrian Colts defense. While we might be sacrificing a tiny bit of upside, Ertz's ceiling is fairly close to Kelce's and he arguably has a higher floor with the number of targets that should come his way. At the same price and half the ownership, sign me up!
SATURDAY UPDATE:
Tons of action at the TE position. Our highlighted players have basically flip-flopped predicted ownership since Thursday. I think DFS players are being drawn to Ertz due to his outstanding floor. I still prefer Ertz as a one-off, but obviously love Kelce if you are going with Mahomes at QB. Eric Ebron at $3,600 will continue to gain steam as we approach kickoff Sunday. He will be stepping in for Jack Doyle, who was ruled out Friday. He's a nice play and viable salary-saver, but is by no means a "home run" with all the interesting options that are available at TE this week.
D/ST CHALK: Minnesota Vikings ($4,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 21.89% *UPDATED: 22.22%
POWER PIVOT: Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 10.30% *UPDATED: 7.22%
I'm not here to argue against using a great Minnesota defense against the Bills, but for those of you that find yourself in a salary crunch and need the $300 savings, Jacksonville is a rock-solid pivot this week. The Jags are expected to come in at half the ownership of the Vikings in Week 3 and would be a great way to differentiate for those that want to get Kansas City players in their lineups.
Jacksonville draws a nice matchup in a Tennessee Titans team that is still in flux at both QB and offensive line. At the time of this writing, Marcus Mariota is very much in doubt. If he can't go, Tennessee will be forced to roll with Blaine Gabbert. Gabbert didn't play horribly against Houston last week, but the Titans offense was mostly smoke and mirrors with a fake punt accounting for one of their scores. You probably don't need me to tell you what the Jags are capable of on defense, as they possess one of the best units in the league. While Tennessee will try to protect Gabbert again this week with quick dumpoffs, I expect the Jags more talented defense to adjust and attack with great success.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
Nothing surprising here. Minnesota is a terrific play and will be the most popular defense this week. The Jags continue to be an excellent sleeper as I get the feeling most players will either pay up for Minny or go searching way down the salary scale.
