RADIO
For those of us that play NFL DFS tournaments every week, ownership percentage is always a critical piece of the puzzle. Having a lineup full of very popular or chalk plays can limit upside in GPP tournaments. We can sometimes gain leverage in a tournament situation by differentiating our lineups, even if it’s only in a couple of spots.
This article will help determine what players will be popular at each position and identify viable pivot options at a similar price point. These aren’t necessarily plays that you want to fill your entire lineup with, but rather players that will help to differentiate your lineup from the masses.
Projected ownership isn’t something that you should allow to shape your research process. Your thoughts about ownership should come at the end of your weekly research, not at the beginning. If you love a player, play him, no matter how popular he is expected to be. However, if you keep hearing about a player that’s projected to be highly owned, but your research or feelings lead you in a different direction, that’s when you can utilize pivot plays to gain some leverage against the field. Let’s get to this week’s Power Pivots.
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Week 2 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
QB CHALK: Drew Brees ($7,200 DK) - Projected Ownership: 12.49%
POWER PIVOT: Deshaun Watson ($6,300) - Projected Ownership: 3.26%
This one is for those of you that are feeling really frisky this week! Brees is projected to be the highest-owned QB on the slate...and with good reason. He is coming off a monster performance in the season opener against Tampa Bay and is welcoming the Cleveland Browns to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this week. While it looks and sounds like a dream matchup, it does have some drawbacks. Cleveland picked off Big Ben three times last week, while throwing double and triple teams at Antonio Brown. Brees will also have to contend with Myles Garrett. Garrett was a beast in the season-opener and spent a ton of time in the Steeler backfield, showing why he was the number one pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Our QB pivot this week is a guy that garnered major attention last week. Deshaun Watson had football fans drooling before his injury in 2017. DFS players were eager to get him back in lineups last week in the opener against New England, but Watson disappointed his backers by logging only 13.0 DK points. The young star out of Clemson looked rusty in the first half, though he improved as the game went on.
Many will be reluctant to hop back on the Watson train this week, but he is arguably in a better spot to succeed this Sunday against a Tennessee Titans defense that he absolutely shredded in their second meeting last season to the tune of five total touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins is primed for a bounce back performance after a quiet game against New England and at the time of this writing, it looks as though Will Fuller will be back in the lineup. The athleticism of Watson, Hopkins, and Fuller should overwhelm a Titans secondary that gave up 107 yards receiving and 2 TD’s to Kenny Stills last week.
RB CHALK: James Conner ($6,700) - Projected Ownership: 27.05%
POWER PIVOT: Christian McCaffrey ($7,000) - Projected Ownership: 7.73%
It’s hard to argue with James Conner’s results in the season opener against Cleveland. He looked like “Le’Veon Lite”, logging massive usage while doing damage both on the ground and through the air. According to ownership projections, DFS players plan on sticking with Conner again this week, despite a $2,200 salary increase.
Those looking to fade Conner in large-field GPP’s or perhaps searching for a RB to pair him with, might want to consider Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey. Like our QB pivot Deshaun Watson, McCaffrey was underwhelming in Week 1 after an offseason filled with hype. The second-year player only managed 14.5 DK points in a grind-it-out game against the Dallas Cowboys in the opener. McCaffrey suffered a fumble at the goal line early in the game and was vultured by Cam Newton and Alex Armah in Carolina’s other goal line situations.
Though the fumble is disappointing, I am encouraged to see that McCaffrey will get some work at the goal line. His output was solid in a game that was a defensive struggle. McCaffrey averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 7.5 yards per reception. Things should come much easier this week in a dome environment against an Atlanta Falcons defense that lost two key defensive players, starting LB Deion Jones and rising star S Keanu Neal, to injury last week and currently have a DVOA rank of 25th vs. the run after allowing Jay Ajayi to get loose on multiple occasions in their first game of the season.
WR CHALK: Tyreek Hill ($7,600) - Projected Ownership: 15.97%
POWER PIVOT: Juju Smith-Schuster ($6,400) - Projected Ownership: 7.73%
Man, Tyreek Hill is such a fun player to watch. He exploded against the Chargers last week, notching an unreal 45.3 DK points. Even though he is an electric player and brings substantial upside to lineups, Hill’s scoring is reliant on splash plays, so we do have to be cognizant of his low floor...especially against a Steelers defense that has a DVOA ranking of third against the pass.
I’m interested in a player that will be lining up for the other team in a game with the highest expected point total of the week. JuJu Smith-Schuster will be a huge vertical threat against Kansas City on Sunday. Though the second-year wideout’s upside might be hindered by the presence of Antonio Brown, the argument could be made that he possesses a higher floor than Tyreek Hill at a salary that’s $1,200 less.
Smith-Schuster has a knack for getting behind defenses. This will be a huge advantage against a Marcus Peters-less secondary that is made up of castoffs and spare parts. The Chiefs DB’s were repeatedly burned by the Chargers receiving corps last week, but luckily for them LA’s pass-catchers aren’t very good at catching passes. JuJu is good at catching passes and is in a beautiful spot for this possible shootout. Despite playing second fiddle to Antonio Brown, Smith-Schuster saw eight targets against Cleveland last week and will continue to be a huge part of the Steeler offense.
TE CHALK: George Kittle ($3,800) - Projected Ownership: 13.38%
POWER PIVOT: Jordan Reed ($5,000) - Projected Ownership: 2.17%
It’s really hard for me to make a case against George Kittle this week. He’s a talented player with a cheap price in a great matchup. It is difficult to pass up what amounts to a “free square” play at TE, so fire away with Kittle with confidence.
However, for those that want to get a bit sneaky at the TE position, let me suggest moving up the price scale to Jordan Reed. I know, I know...Reed is a walking, talking injury waiting to happen, but no one can deny that the guy is an elite-level talent when healthy. The only time you can feel semi-confident about rostering the Washington tight end is before his first injury of the season. Reed made it through game one unscathed and heads into a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts in which the ‘Skins have a sneaky-high implied team total of 26.3 points. We know that Alex Smith loves to throw to his tight end and he gave Reed five looks that he was able convert for 48 yards and a touchdown last week against Arizona. We should see those numbers go up Sunday against a Colts team that is very talent-deficient on the defensive side of the ball.
D/ST CHALK: Los Angeles Chargers ($3,600) - Projected Ownership: 9.67%
POWER PIVOT: Denver Broncos ($3,300) - Projected Ownership: 2.17%
The Chargers are in a dreamy situation this week as they head to Buffalo to take on what appeared to be the worst team in the NFL in Week 1. To make matters worse, the Bills have named inaccurate rookie Josh Allen as their starting QB for Week 2. So by all means, fire up the Chargers if you like them.
The Denver Broncos do offer an interesting alternative to the Chargers this week. The Broncos are hosting Oakland in the friendly thin-air of Mile High Stadium and are coming off an impressive showing against Seattle, a game in which they logged SIX sacks and forced three turnovers. Jon Gruden doesn’t appear to have the Raiders offense in high gear just yet and they don’t boast any offensive weapons that Denver can’t handle. For those they choose to fade a Chargers defense that will still be without Joey Bosa, Denver is available at a $300 discount and a quarter of the expected ownership.
