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It’s hard to believe the season is winding down. I wrote up some middling performances last week, but I was also on Kirk Cousins-Justin Jefferson stacks (no Hockenson, however). Along with that, identifying the Panthers’ big day against the Detroit Lions was nice as well.
Week 17 features one game with a Vegas total above 50. Additionally, the Chiefs and 49ers are huge favorites over their respective opponents (Broncos and Raiders). It’s a huge slate (13 games), but there are certainly some great matchups to exploit. Let’s check it out.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Justin Fields ($7900) + Cole Kmet ($4500)
Ford Field has been fantasy football heaven in 2022. It is home to the highest-totaled game of Week 17 (no surprise). Vegas expects 52 points between NFC North foes Chicago and Detroit, so loading up on Bears and Lions in both season-long and DFS lineups is recommended.
Dan Campbell’s Lions got absolutely bludgeoned by D’Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard, and the Panthers’ ground game last weekend to the tune of 320 rushing yards on 43 attempts. That’s 7.4 yards per carry for all you mathematicians out there. Now they’ll face off with the league’s top rushing offense in the Bears, a unit that owns the third-most 20+ yard rushes (17) and the most 40+ yard rushes (6) on the season.
Only the Bears themselves have served up more rushing touchdowns than the Lions (22). Justin Fields’ dream matchup is Detroit (as we saw in Week 10 already) — the Lions have allowed the fourth-most passing yards, sixth-most passing TDs (24), the most rushing yards to quarterbacks (558), and the second-most rushing TDs to the position (7) (nfl.com).
Chicago is limited on playmakers on the outside. Cole Kmet is the TE1 and de facto WR1 for Matt Eberflus’ team currently. He’s drawn six or more targets in five of his last seven outings. If this game pops as we expect it to, he’ll see sufficient volume.
Preferred bring-back: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7800)
Leverage piece: A Bears WR (hard to pinpoint who)
Chase Claypool, Dante Pettis, and Equanimeous St. Brown are all on the injury report for the Bears with various ailments. Detroit should be able to score at will against this lackluster Chicago defense, so Justin Fields will likely need to drop back plenty to keep pace. A Bears receiver is going to produce this weekend on DraftKings; it’s just hard to decipher who. Byron Pringle is the only healthy one that is remotely viable.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes ($9000) + Travis Kelce ($8300) OR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6800)
As close to a machine as they come at the quarterback position, Patrick Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdown passes in nine of his last 12 games. In a Week 14 matchup with these same Broncos, he notched 352 passing yards and three touchdowns. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Kansas City doesn’t put up a boatload of real-life points against the train-wreck Broncos.
Travis Kelce continues to defy conventional wisdom with his strong play as a 33-year-old tight end. He ranks first among tight ends in targets, third in target share, second in air yards, and first in RZ targets. Denver has yielded the fourth-most receptions (85) and fourth-most receiving yards to TEs, so expect Kelce to post yet another strong outing.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has eliminated the early-season doubt that surrounded his fantasy prospects after a slow start. The sixth-year pro has five games with 16 or more PPR points since Week 6. He was also huge in the previous matchup with Denver, notching nine catches on 11 targets. In a clear mismatch, with the Chiefs at home this time around, a similar result should be anticipated.
Preferred bring-back: Jerry Jeudy ($7000)
Leverage piece: Isiah Pacheco ($6300)
K.C.’s rookie back, Isiah Pacheco, has toted 13 or more carries in seven straight games. He also handled three red-zone carries just last week. As a heavily favored home running back, the upside is there for Pacheco to boom in Week 17.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Aaron Rodgers ($6000) + Allen Lazard ($5400) AND/OR Romeo Doubs ($4700)
Green Bay’s offense has been rolling recently, with 28, 24, and 26 points scored in the last three weeks. This is about as pristine a matchup as you can ask for if you’re Aaron Rodgers and the passing game; only the Titans and Cardinals have given up more completions than the Vikings. Minnesota also leads the league in passing yards allowed (4,222).
This stack recommendation is relatively cheap when you consider the upside it possesses. Minnesota’s offense has also found its footing, posting 33, 27, 23, 39, and 27 points over their last five games. A back-and-forth affair is likely, and the 48-point Vegas total seconds that notion.
Allen Lazard tied a season high with 11 targets last week and also saw three red-zone targets. He is averaging 1.8 deep targets per game (per Player Profiler), which ranks No. 8 in the league. Kevin O’Connell’s defense has struggled against the deep ball; only Detroit is worse in yards per attempt allowed than Minnesota (7.5).
Romeo Doubs has seen notable volume since returning from injury two weeks ago. He has five and six targets respectively over that span, along with a red-zone target in each game. With Christian Watson trending towards doubtful, Doubs and Lazard could be the focal points of Green Bay’s aerial attack.
Preferred bring-back: Justin Jefferson ($9500)
Leverage piece: Aaron Jones ($7100)
Minnesota possesses a middle-of-the-road rushing defense. Aaron Jones has been nursing knee/ankle injuries this week. If he does ultimately suit up, he will be low-owned. The Vikes have allowed the sixth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving yards to backs in 2022. Jones will certainly make you unique if he plays.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Kirk Cousins ($7600) + Justin Jefferson ($9200) OR T.J. Hockenson ($7000)
We go to the other side of this matchup with Minnesota for our fourth stack of the week. As stated, Kirk Cousins and this offense are absolutely rolling right now. A matchup with the Packers doesn’t look like any sort of roadblock; Green Bay ranks as the 10th-worst team in completion percentage allowed (65.8%), they’re one of six teams allowing 7.1 yards per attempt or worse, and they are bottom eight in sacks with 31 (nfl.com).
Captain Kirk has accumulated 299 or more passing yards in four of his last five games. The Packers should put up points here, so that should force Minnesota to keep their foot on the gas and to keep passing the ball. It’s working after all.
How absurd is it that Justin Jefferson has garnered 15 or more targets in three straight games? Very. It’s very absurd but that’s the level this guy is on nowadays. An absolute monster when it comes to fantasy football, Jefferson ranks first in targets, routes run, and red-zone targets among wideouts. The price tag is very lofty, but the upside is just unmatchable currently.
Evolving into a great weapon for the Vikings since their acquisition of him via trade, T.J. Hockenson proved for the second time this season in Week 15 just how high his ceiling is. He turned 16 targets into 13 catches for 109 yards and two scores. The Packers have limited catches and yards to the position this season, but they have allowed seven touchdown receptions to TEs.
Preferred bring-back: Allen Lazard ($6200)
Leverage piece: Dalvin Cook ($8300)
Green Bay has been sliced up for the fifth-most rushing yards by running backs. They have also allowed the sixth-most rushing attempts this season. The former Florida State Seminole has at least three targets and 15 or more carries in four of his last five games. Minnesota passing-game stacks will be popular. Leveraging them with their workhorse running back isn’t the worst contrarian idea I’ve ever heard.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Brock Purdy ($5500) + Brandon Aiyuk ($6300) AND/OR George Kittle ($5900)
San Francisco is in a prime position to absolutely annihilate the Raiders fresh off their head-scratching benching of Derek Carr. Looking at the price tags on San Francisco weapons for Week 17, I’m going out on a limb and making a guarantee: A San Francisco 49er will be in the Milly Maker-winning lineup this weekend.
Kyle Shanahan’s squad is rolling right now with Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, under center. San Fran has mustered 33 or more points in three of their last four games. It might be four of their last five after Sunday based on this matchup with Las Vegas; the Raiders are sixth in completions allowed, third in completion percentage allowed (67.9%), and one of 12 teams allowing 6.9 yards or more per pass attempt. Only the Bears and Falcons have compiled fewer sacks (25) (nfl.com).
Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle have been the preferred targets for Purdy since taking over — especially Kittle. The 29-year-old has posted 6/120/2 and 4/93/2 stat lines over the last two weeks. That production doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon, as the Raiders are bottom nine in receptions and yards allowed to the position.
Preferred bring-back: Nobody (Niners onslaught)
Leverage piece: Deebo Samuel ($6000)
When I saw this price on Deebo Samuel, my eyes popped out of my head. This is a player who has been on the shelf since Week 14, but the upside is always there when he suits up. He practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday. His 4.4-yard aDOT could lead to more manufactured targets and touches from Purdy. I like him as a sneaky, cheap, high-upside play.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Sam Darnold ($6800) + D.J. Moore ($7000)
I have a hunch that Tampa Bay gets their offense cooking back on a 2021 level in this spot. In that scenario, the Panthers would need to abandon their recent run-heavy ways and revert to more dropbacks. Sam Darnold has been fond of D.J. Moore since regaining his starting position, and the stats bear that out.
Moore has posted three straight games of 73 or more receiving yards and a touchdown when fully healthy. Tampa Bay hasn’t lived up to the pass funnel label so much this year, but it’s certainly still ideal to pass a bit more on Tampa than to run. The Bucs have both Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean on their injury report, which would make the matchup even better for Moore.
Darnold has slung it for 225 passing yards or more in back-to-back games. It’s not the sexiest stack in the world, but sometimes you need to get uncomfortable in DFS. This is certainly one of those examples.
Preferred bring-back: Mike Evans ($7500)
Leverage piece: Leonard Fournette ($7000)
Everyone is off of Leonard Fournette now. He has a decent matchup here, and he’s fresh off a 20-carry, nine-catch outing against Arizona. Rachaad White has been a thorn in Fournette’s fantasy side all season long, but if he garners other 20-plus touches against a defense that has allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, I like him. Trust a low-owned Uncle Lenny in Week 17.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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