RADIO
After a strong run of three or four weeks in a row of sound DFS advice from this column, Week 15 underwhelmed somewhat. I recommended Chiefs stacks and Cowboys stacks, but outside of that, it was pretty average. Zay Jones was mentioned as a bring-back for Cowboys stacks, and he was the piece you needed to ascend leaderboards, but I’ll call it an average week at best.
We move to Week 16, a week that features one, maybe two, games to write home about (SEA-KC & NYG-MIN). Everything else is cringeworthy for the most part — unless Gardner Minshew shows up to play against Dallas. Let’s dive right in.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes ($8400) + Travis Kelce ($8000) AND/OR JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5800)
Honestly, it’s pretty foolish to not play at least one Chiefs stack every single week — especially if/when they are projected for lower ownership. A Mahomes triple stack took down the Milly Maker in Week 15, with the stud QB paired with Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jerick McKinnon. A close contest with Houston provided the necessary game script for this lineup to reach its ceiling.
En route to his Milly-Maker-winning performance last Sunday, Mahomes completed 87% of his passes. He’ll draw another decent matchup against Seattle this week, a team that has yielded point totals of 27, 27, 45, 39, 40, and 30 at various points this year. At home against a Seattle team that will be without Tyler Lockett, Andy Reid’s offense could possess the ball more than usual — which can only mean great things fantasy-wise for Mahomes.
Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster continue to roll within this vaunted K.C. aerial attack, and last week was a perfect example; each of them saw 10 targets and caught all 10 of them. Can you say absurd? The duo has combined to garner over 46% of the Chiefs’ red-zone targets this season, and Week 16 presents another opportunity for more red-zone opportunities.
Preferred bring-back: DK Metcalf ($7100)
Leverage piece: Jerick McKinnon ($5900)
Seeing at least nine targets in back-to-back games, Jerick McKinnon has been a PPR monster recently. He’s also scored multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games. Expecting him to drop another 30-DraftKings-point performance on Sunday is unreasonable but anointing him the lead back within Kansas City’s offense wouldn’t be a stretch by any means.
Only the Texans have allowed more rushing yards than the Seahawks in 2022. Seattle is also one of seven teams allowing 4.9 yards per carry or more. Continue to ride the wave of McKinnon while his price tag stays suppressed.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Josh Allen ($9500) + Stefon Diggs ($8700) OR Gabe Davis ($6400)
Over their last seven games, the Chicago Bears have yielded the following point totals (starting with Week 8): 49, 35, 31, 27, 31, 28, and 25. Up next, they’ll face the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the Buffalo Bills (27.5 PPG). Though it will be a home game for Matt Eberflus’ club in the Windy City, it shouldn’t affect Josh Allen’s Bills too much, as they’re used to those types of conditions.
According to PFF, Chicago owns the 10th-worst-graded pass coverage grade of any NFL team and a league-worst-graded pass rush. With likely all day to throw the ball, and no one capable of covering Stefon Diggs, it could be a long day for the Bears' secondary.
Josh Allen started 2022 on a torrid pace, topping 24 fantasy points in six straight contests to begin the season. He then hit a bit of a fantasy skid, topping 22 points in 2-of-7 contests from Week 8 through Week 14. However, he may have snapped out of it in snowy Buffalo against the Dolphins in Week 15, as he amassed 35.9 fantasy points. He’s also handled 10 rushing attempts in three of his last four outings.
With upside as high as anyone, and six 300-yard passing games on his résumé this year, trust in Allen to dismantle Chicago.
Preferred bring-back: Cole Kmet ($5100)
Leverage piece: Isaiah McKenzie ($5500)
Isaiah McKenzie’s 96 air yards last week was his second-highest total of the season. It was also his sixth game of the year with 25 or more routes run. He makes for good leverage off the more popular Diggs and Gabriel Davis.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Kirk Cousins ($6300) + Justin Jefferson ($9300) AND/OR Adam Thielen ($5300)
Arguably the best game environment on the slate, Giants-Vikings could surprise from a DFS perspective. As we saw in Week 15 when the Vikes stormed back against Indianapolis, this offense is high-powered and capable of putting up points in bunches.
New York has served up 48, 28, and 31 points over the course of their last four games. They possess a middle-of-the-road pass defense, but even the top coverage units in the league are having a hard time holding down Justin Jefferson — arguably the league’s best receiver. The alpha wideout has 11 targets or more in four straight games, and 10 such games out of his 14 in 2022.
Though his days of being a WR1-type contributor are long gone, Adam Thielen has remained a constant within Minnesota’s red-zone game plan. The 32-year-old has seven red-zone targets combined over the last four games and has 13.1 or more PPR points in three of his last four outings. Facing a Giants defense that will be without their top cornerback, Adoree’ Jackson, Thielen, and the rest of Minnesota's receiving weapons could eat here.
Preferred bring-back: Richie James ($3900)
Leverage piece: Dalvin Cook ($7200)
Brian Daboll’s defense is tied with the Chargers for a league-worst mark of 5.4 yards per carry allowed. Dalvin Cook has handled 17 red-zone rushing attempts and multiple targets in each of his last four games. Only the Texans and Seahawks have been trampled for more total rushing yards in the entire season than New York. It’s a pristine spot for Mr. Cook in Week 16.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Geno Smith ($7600) + DK Metcalf ($8000)
Without Tyler Lockett in Week 16, DK Metcalf will get all the targets he can handle. In a matchup with Kansas City, it’s likely that Pete Carroll’s club will be forced into a negative game script, creating a likely high pass-volume game. Fortunately, the Chiefs have been very giving in that phase of the game — as they’ve surrendered the fifth-most completions and the most passing touchdowns of any team (30).
Lockett’s absence opens up 7.7 targets per game and a 32.1% air yards share. Already averaging 8.5 targets with Lockett in the lineup, Metcalf will be the main beneficiary. The 25-year-old has seen at least eight targets in six of his last seven games, and double-digit targets are almost inevitable in this spot.
Geno Smith had thrown for multiple touchdowns in seven straight contests before last week’s relatively average performance against San Francisco. However, that was to be expected considering the Niners’ propensity to slow down opposing offenses in 2022. This week’s matchup with the Chiefs is a stark contrast to last week, so expect Smith to get back on track in terms of fantasy production.
Preferred bring-back: Travis Kelce ($8600)
Leverage piece: Kenneth Walker ($6900)
Though he appeared on the injury report for most of this week, Kenneth Walker is expected to suit up against the Chiefs in Week 16. If Seattle is to come even close to winning this game, it will almost certainly be on the back of a ceiling performance from their dynamic rookie running back.
The Michigan State product has racked up multiple receptions in three of his last five games. Kansas City has the fourth-most sacks in the league with 43, which could lead to more pressure on Smith — and more dump-offs to Walker. On top of what he does on the ground, his pass-catching production could be enhanced here as well. He’s a great play.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Sam Darnold ($5100) + D.J. Moore ($5500)
If you’re a Lions fan and you’ve been reading this column all year, you must hate me. I’ve recommended picking on their defense every single week, and that won’t change in Week 16. Detroit leads the league in yards per attempt allowed at 7.6. Only the Titans and Vikings have allowed more passing yards to this point.
Since Sam Darnold’s reinsertion into the lineup in Week 12, D.J. Moore has sandwiched two games of at least 73 receiving yards and a touchdown around a Week 14 dud where he suffered an ankle injury. Moore’s role has been great all year — as his 96.6% snap share ranks No. 2 at the WR position in the entire league. Against a Lions secondary that hasn’t covered anyone all year, it would be no surprise if he reached 100 yards in this matchup.
Preferred bring-back: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7800)
Leverage piece: D'Onta Foreman ($5300)
10 carries for nine rushing yards — that was the stat line put up by D’Onta Foreman last weekend. Detroit ranks bottom seven in rushing yards allowed, YPC allowed, and rushing TDs allowed. Coming off last week’s dud, no one will click Foreman.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Davis Mills ($6500) + Brandin Cooks ($6500)
Chris Moore and Nico Collins have appeared on the Texans’ injury report this week. Though Brandin Cooks has been nonexistent all season, the matchup couldn’t be any better. Mike Vrabel’s defense has been cooked by wideouts all year, yielding the most passing yards of any team. Cooks hasn’t been healthy in a while (calf), but he practiced in full Wednesday and Thursday.
Derrick Henry bulldozing Lovie Smith’s sieve-like run defense is almost inevitable. In their previous meeting this season, The Big Dog handled 32 carries for 219 yards and two touchdowns. With Ryan Tannehill on the shelf in Week 16, Vrabel would be smart to replicate that Week 8 game plan.
Only the Vikings have served up more receptions to WRs in 2022 than Tennessee (205). Cooks hasn’t done much of anything all year, but the game script, matchup, and attrition of Houston’s receiving corps could thrust him into a prominent role.
Preferred bring-back: Derrick Henry ($9800)
Leverage piece: Nobody will play this stack.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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