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It was a decent showing for this column in Week 12. Rachaad White, Chris Godwin, Tee Higgins, Mike White, and Garrett Wilson were all nice hits from last week’s write-up. Can we keep the momentum going in Week 13?
There are some stellar game environments to target this weekend, including JAC-DET, KC-CIN, and LAC-LV as games with Vegas totals breaching 50 points. NYJ-MIN, TEN-PHI, and MIA-SF also have potential as well. It’s shaping up to be a very strong slate.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Justin Herbert ($7200) + Keenan Allen ($6500) AND Josh Palmer ($5600)
An AFC West divisional matchup in Week 13 pits the Chargers against the Raiders. Justin Herbert and his bevy of weapons are set up nicely in Week 13 against Las Vegas, a team that is allowing a league-high 71.6% completion percentage and the eighth-most passing yards on the 2022 season.
Herbert should have ample time to find his targets, as Josh McDaniels’ team is at the bottom of the sacks totem pole with just 16. That will give L.A.’s signal-caller ample time to pick apart PFF’s sixth-worst-graded coverage unit according to PFF grades.
Mike Williams was a DNP the first two days of practice this week. That will likely leave Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer as beneficiaries once again, a duo that has been playing great football of late. Allen has 10 catches on 15 targets combined through his two weeks since returning from injury, while Palmer has at least seven targets in five straight games and 33 catches over that span.
Preferred bring-back: Davante Adams ($8700)
Leverage piece: Gerald Everett ($4400)
Gerald Everett has at least five catches in 5-of-10 games this season. However, he does not have a single 100-yard game this season. In fact, he has only one such game through 86 career games. Does he have the requisite upside to get there on Sunday? He would need a handful of catches and likely needs to score, but that’s certainly a possibility.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Joe Burrow ($8300) + Ja'Marr Chase ($8900) OR Tee Higgins ($8300)
Oh, baby. Chiefs vs. Bengals. This game is what DFS dreams are made of. Last season, these two teams met twice — resulting in 34-31 and 27-24 final scores. This year’s matchup is looking quite juicy, especially with Ja’Marr Chase slated to return from a hip injury.
In Week 17 of last season, Chase put three touchdowns on the Chiefs’ defense en route to an 11-catch, 266-yard performance. Additionally, there was some bulletin board material circulating on Twitter this week from Chiefs safety Justin Reid. Cincinnati’s passing attack should light up K.C. like a Christmas tree.
Only the Cardinals and Steelers have surrendered more passing touchdowns than the Chiefs (22). Kansas City leads the league in touchdowns allowed to the WR position (15), so Chase and Tee Higgins should be busy early and often. Higgins has posted back-to-back 100-yard games and three straight with seven receptions or more.
A 52.5 Vegas total and a tight spread are conducive for fantasy fireworks. Joe Burrow and his cast of pass catchers are also underdogs against the explosive Chiefs — a team that has scored at least 27 points in eight of their 11 outings this year. Circle this contest and stack it all the way up in DFS lineups. You’ll be happy with the result.
Preferred bring-back: JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6900)
Leverage piece: Tyler Boyd ($6300)
Tyler Boyd is always a threat to drop a 100-yard game out of nowhere. Sunday’s draw couldn’t be any better for Cincinnati’s passing game. In 2022, Boyd has two 100-yard games and five games with four or more catches. Against a Chiefs team with a top-five pass rush (35 sacks), Burrow might be looking to get the ball out quickly — to his trusty slot receiver. He’s a solid leverage play.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Geno Smith ($6100) + DK Metcalf ($6700) OR Tyler Lockett ($6000)
Another divisional matchup in the NFC West will occur on Sunday, as the Rams host Seattle. Oh, how the mighty have fallen — as the Rams are 7-point home underdogs against the Seahawks after winning a Super Bowl a year ago. And as a Rams fan, that is painful to think about.
Geno Smith continued his stretch of torrid play with his third 300-yard passing day of the season against the Raiders last weekend. The matchup isn’t quite as good this time around, but I’m banking on volume in this scenario to get him and his pass catchers there against Sean McVay’s team.
The Rams have scored over 20 points just twice all season, and they’ve scored above 14 points just three times in their last eight contests. Their offense is laugh-out-loud embarrassing, and that should lead to shorter fields and extra possessions for Seattle. Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett should be able to exploit a secondary that is allowing a 68.1% completion rate and has allowed the sixth-most receptions by wideouts.
Preferred bring-back: None. Rams stink.
Leverage piece: Kenneth Walker ($7000)
Los Angeles has been relatively strong against the run on the year. However, the anchor of their defense, Aaron Donald, has been ruled out with an ankle injury. The same line of thinking for Smith and Co. applies to Walker — more possessions equal more chances to score.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Trevor Lawrence ($7500) + Christian Kirk ($7500)
Jaguars-Lions features another Vegas total above 50 and a tight spread. Trevor Lawrence has started to come into his own in Year 2, posting back-to-back games with at least 259 passing yards and multiple touchdown throws. He’ll now get the Lions this weekend, a team that we have been picking on all season.
Detroit owns all of these distinctions as we hit the two-thirds mark of the season:
- Sixth-most passing yards allowed
- Trail only the Vikings and Bears in yards per attempt allowed (7.5)
- Bottom-six team in sacks (20)
- 8-of-11 games allowing 27 or more points
- Lead the league in points allowed per game (28.2)
Zay Jones was the main beneficiary for fantasy in Week 12 with his 11-145 outing, but Christian Kirk has been Lawrence’s most-trusted target throughout the season. The former Texas A&M Aggie has seen at least seven targets in five straight games, and he is ranked fifth among receivers in red-zone targets with 15. Against a team yielding the third-most yards to receivers this season, Kirk is due for a spike week.
Preferred bring-back: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8000)
Leverage piece: Travis Etienne ($8000)
Detroit has been gashed both through the air and on the ground this season. Only the Packers and Bears have allowed more rushing first downs than the Lions. Only the Texans, Bears, and Browns have conceded more rushing touchdowns to RBs than Detroit. If Travis Etienne is fully healthy and back to his previous role (27 and 30 total touches in Weeks 8 and 9), it could be an eruption spot for the talented second-year back.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Kenny Pickett ($5200) + George Pickens ($5100) AND/OR Diontae Johnson ($5200)
Atlanta has been a team we’ve attacked all season long with passing games. This Sunday will be no different, as the Steelers have the requisite horses to put some points on the board via the air. PFF has tagged the Falcons as the second-worst-graded pass rush in football. Additionally, they lead the league in passing yards allowed and rank second in passing first downs allowed.
George Pickens has not had a true breakout performance yet in the pros, but Week 13 very well could be the spot. He ranks fifth in the league in aDOT (15.1) and sixth in deep targets (19; 1.7 per game). He’s also seen a red-zone target in five of the last seven games.
Don’t sleep on Diontae Johnson in this spot either. The fourth-year pro is still seeing elite volume; he ranks eighth in the NFL with 94 targets and ninth in red-zone targets with 13. Against a poor secondary like Atlanta, Johnson could rack up double-digit receptions here.
Preferred bring-back: Drake London ($4700)
Leverage piece: Pat Freiermuth ($4300)
Arthur Smith’s team has been abysmal against just about every position. Tight end is no exception, as they’ve surrendered the second-most targets (96), the third-most receptions (66), and the sixth-most yards to the position (Pro Football Reference). Freiermuth has dropped 12.2 or more DK points in half of his games this season. Week 13 could be another such week.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Jimmy Garoppolo ($7000) + Deebo Samuel ($6800) OR Brandon Aiyuk ($6700)
Kyle Shanahan vs. Kyle Shanahan’s disciple. This one should be fun. With two offensive gurus going at it in Week 13, Niners-Dolphins is shaping up to be an interesting game from a DFS perspective — one that could certainly produce fantasy points in bunches.
It’s not every week that I recommend Jimmy Garoppolo as a DFS play, but he’s quietly been solid over the last two months with at least 17 FanDuel points in five of his last seven outings. Matched up with the high-octane Dolphins, who have scored 30 or more points in four straight games, Garoppolo could be forced into more dropbacks and will need to keep his foot on the gas pedal.
Miami is yielding the seventh-highest completion percentage of any team (67.8%). They are also graded fifth best by PFF in run defense, but they are all the way back at 25th in pass coverage. Against a pure pass funnel, it’s Jimmy G’s time to shine here.
Deebo Samuel is dealing with a quad injury, so keep an eye on his status heading into Sunday. Christian McCaffrey is also dealing with a knee injury. Brandon Aiyuk could be a huge beneficiary if Samuel and CMC are limited or out; he’s posted at least 58 receiving yards in six of his last seven games.
Preferred bring-back: Jaylen Waddle ($7900)
Leverage piece: George Kittle ($6200)
Another huge beneficiary would be George Kittle, who has yet to have a vintage Kittle game in 2022. The spot couldn’t set up any better for him, however, as the Dolphins have been shredded by opposing tight ends. They’ve allowed the fourth-most targets, second-most receptions, and third-most touchdowns to TEs (Pro Football Reference).
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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