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Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 3


In Week 2, only two of the wide receivers featured in this column found the end zone, which made for some tough sledding. Still, there were several solid performances. Here is a statistical recap of the Week 2 recommendations:

Cooper Kupp really came through against the Saints and if he didn't get tackled on the 1-yard line he would have had a 20+ point day. Michael Gallup saw 26.7% of the Cowboys receiving targets in Week 2, but he didn't have any big plays and failed to score. As discussed below, Marvin Jones was shadowed by Casey Hayward for much of the day which stalled his fantasy production, and Sammy Watkins came up small because the Raiders tried to take him out of the game. John Brown continues to be Josh Allen's No. 1 passing target and looks to have finally evolved into a complete receiver. Emmanuel Sanders dominated targets for the Broncos and as expected, Julio Jones went over 100-yards and scored.

In all, Week 2 seemed to be a little more stable than Week 1, but there were still a few surprises thrown our way. Now, we will take what we learned from the first two weeks, along with historical data, and try to figure out who will have big games in Week 3.

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Week 3 WR/CB Matchups to Exploit

Sammy Watkins ($7,100 FanDuel /$6,800 DraftKings) vs Brandon Carr

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson ($6,700 Fanduel/$5,600 DK) exploded on the scene in Week 2 against the Raiders with six catches for 172 yards and two touchdowns. Although Robinson had a huge game, he was only targeted six times. Sammy Watkins may have come up a little small in Week 2 with six catches and just 49 yards, but he did lead the team with 13 targets. The Raiders made an effort to take Watkins out of the game, which helped the other receivers, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, have big games.

The Chiefs have served notice on the league that they have several receivers capable of taking the ball to the house for a touchdown on any given play, and opposing defenses cannot stop them by taking just one of their receivers out of the game. It may be difficult to predict which Kansas City wide receiver will have a big game on a week-to-week basis, but the numbers point to Watkins in Week 3. Watkins should draw Ravens cornerback Brandon Carr in coverage who has been targeted once for every 4.7 routes-covered, and has given up a catch on every 8.7 routes-covered.  Demarcus Robinson, on the other hand, will draw Marlon Humphrey in coverage a majority of the game. Opposing quarterbacks have been staying away from Humphrey for the most part this season, only throwing his direction just once every 7.1 routes-covered, surrendering just one catch every 15.6 routes-covered. The bottom line is that Week 3 is likely Sammy Watkins' time to shine.

Marvin Jones ($5,400 FanDuel /$5,000 DraftKings) vs Ronald Darby

In Week 2, Marvin Jones drew Casey Hayward in coverage a majority of the day, not Kenny Golladay. The Chargers coverage contributed to an underwhelming performance from Jones. In Week 3, it won't matter who Jones sees in coverage, because the entire Eagles secondary is struggling. That being said, Jones is likely to see a lot of Ronald Darby in coverage this week who has given up 154 yards receiving and two receiving touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season.

Pivot: Randall Cobb ($5,300 FanDuel /$4,600 DraftKings) vs Jomal Wiltz

All of the Miami Dolphins defensive backs have been getting picked on so far in 2019, but Jomal Wiltz is really getting picked on. Wiltz is targeted once every 5.7 routes-covered and gives up a catch for every 6.8 routes-covered. Randall Cobb has been playing on 72.99% of the Cowboys offensive snaps and has a 17.7% target share through the first two weeks. With Michael Gallup (and his 24.2% target share) out of the lineup, Cobb should see an increase in his usage. If you were burned by Marvin Jones in Week 2 and don’t want to go back to him in Week 3, Cobb may be a safer option for your DFS lineups.

Tyler Boyd ($6,600 FanDuel /$6,500 DraftKings) vs Taron Johnson/Siran Neal

Tyler Boyd lines up in the slot on 68% of his routes so he should see Taron Johnson or Siran Neal for the majority of the routes he runs in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills. Tre’Davious White should lock down either John Ross or Damion Willis on the outside, and with White only giving up one catch every 9.1 routes covered, Dalton may simply look to avoid the matchup. The bottom line is Boyd should continue to shine for the Bengals in Week 3 against Buffalo.

Pivot: Tyler Lockett ($6,600 FanDuel /$6,200 DraftKings) vs PJ Williams

Tyler Lockett plays 54% of his snaps out of the slot, which means he should be covered by New Orleans Saints cornerback PJ Williams on over half his routes this weekend. In Week 2, Cooper Kupp had a five-catch, 120-yard performance out of the slot against the Saints which indicates Lockett could have a big day. Lockett has a higher ceiling than Boyd, but he has a much lower floor due to volume of targets. Through the first two weeks of the season, Boyd has 22 targets compared to just 14 for Lockett.

Mike Evans ($7,100 FanDuel /$6,600 DraftKings) vs Janoris Jenkins

Mike Evans has a seven-inch height advantage on Janoris Jenkins who figures to shadow Evans for much of this matchup. The Giants are giving up 275 receiving yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers this season, so it makes sense to get Evans in your DFS lineups in Week 3.

Nelson Agholor ($4,800 FanDuel /$3,600 DraftKings) vs Justin Coleman

The Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver corps were decimated by soft tissue injuries in Week 2, thus elevating Nelson Agholor on the depth chart. Nelson Agholor should avoid the Lions top cornerback Darius Slay in Week 3 and will likely see a lot of Justin Coleman in coverage. Coleman has been getting picked on more than the other Lions defensive backs through the first two weeks of the season, getting targeted once on every 5.2 routes covered. The Eagles are short on passing targets in Week 3, and Agholor seems to be the most likely beneficiary.

 

Deep Sleeper Alert

Breshad Perriman ($4,600 FanDuel /$3,100 DK) vs DeAndre Baker

According to PFF, New York Giants cornerback DeAndre Baker is responsible for surrendering 11 catches, 272 yards and two touchdowns through the first two games of the 2019 season. Baker has been targeted once every 3.9 routes-covered, and has given up one catch for every 4.6 routes-covered. Breshad Perriman has played 55.97% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps this year, and Winston has (unsuccessfully) taken some shots his way. When Perriman is on the field in Week 3, he will be covered by Baker on a majority of his routes, who is one of the most-targeted cornerbacks so far this season. Perriman is a desperation play in deeper, season-long leagues, and could be a tournament winner in DFS this week.

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