RADIO
More than any week in recent memory, this weekend feels like one where a significantly reduced pool of players is the way to go. There are only about three or four games that look promising for game stacks, with only a couple of other one-off spots on top of that. We also have a weekend without Seattle, Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Baltimore, or Buffalo on the slate. That takes a lot of star power out of the player pool, and a lot of ownership on the ones who remain.
Despite this, I still foresee this being a fun slate. With so many big names off the slate, there are a couple of unlikely teams vying for space on our GPP rosters. There’s also one big injury that will lead to major chalk, and it’ll be a fun challenge to decide what we do; fade or overweight the field. I love a good challenge, so I expect this to be a fun slate.
I’m super excited for Week 13, and my goal is to create a hierarchy of plays so you know who to prioritize when building your lineups! Remember that this article is written early in the week, so please make sure to check in with our Discord for any updates as practice reports come in throughout the week and a clearer picture starts to come into view. Also, be sure to check out all of our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos - $5,700)
As you’ll see later on in this article, there are many high-priced wide receivers that are strong cash options. To make those plays work, we are going to have to find a way to spend down at other positions. Quarterback is one of the easiest positions to do this as the difference between a mid-range player and a high-level player is generally less than 10 DraftKings points unless the high-end guy goes nuclear.
This week, there aren’t that many high-end quarterbacks worth paying up for outside of Tua Tagovailoa, so it’s easier to look down the list and find players worth locking into your cash lineups. Russell Wilson gets the early nod over Brock Purdy in this price range. Both quarterbacks are on the road, and both are playing defenses that have been generous to opposing passing games recently. What sets Wilson apart is that he’s got more rushing upside than Purdy, and he doesn’t have a running back on his team that’s going to threaten his upside.
Wilson lacks volume in the passing game, but he’s still managed to score 17 or more DraftKings points in seven of his 11 starts this year. At just $5,700, he would need about 17.1 fantasy points to pay off his price and that’s clearly within his range. I wouldn’t sleep on the extra $400 that you save by using him over Purdy, as that can help you improve your tight end or defense if you’re not comfortable spending all the way down at those spots.
Russell. Wilson. pic.twitter.com/75lq2b21Mu
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) November 28, 2023
2. Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers - $6,100)
3. Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins - $7,900)
Others in consideration: Sam Howell, Joe Flacco
Sunday update: As of 9 AM this morning, I'm still using Russell Wilson as my cash game quarterback, but the urge to throw Joe Flacco in there is growing by the minute. I don't think Flacco is in a particularly great spot, but I do expect the volume to be there to approach 15 DraftKings points (more than enough to hit value). If there's a player that you're itching to spend up on, and you need the $1,100, then it's not unreasonable to use Flacco in this spot. I'm pretty much out on Tua as a cash option, but Brock Purdy and Sam Howell still remain in the mix if I had the extra few hundred laying around and got cold feet on Russ.
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins - $7,900)
The Miami Dolphins have the highest individual team total on the slate by nearly five points, so yes, you’re going to want some exposure to this team. The Washington Commanders have struggled this year against opposing passing games, allowing 250 or more passing yards in seven of their last nine games. They’ve allowed 25 or more real-life points eight times this year, and have recorded fewer than two sacks in three of four games since they traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat, so nothing is really working for them defensively.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have the most explosive passing offense in the league. Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t always put up big numbers (20 or more DraftKings points in only six games this year), but they have a very limited target tree of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and maybe Cedrick Wilson Jr. if you’re feeling really freaky, so it’s not a challenge to figure out who to stack with Tua. The Dolphins would be just as happy to ram it down their opponent’s throat if they could, but when the matchup is right, they drop bombs to Hill and Waddle. This is the kind of matchup where the passing game should take over.
2. Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos - $5,700)
3. Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers - $6,100)
Others in consideration: Jalen Hurts, Derek Carr, C.J. Stroud, Sam Howell, Bailey Zappe, Joe Flacco
Sunday update: You're not fooling anyone if you use Tua Tagovailoa or Sam Howell this weekend. They get you exposure to the most fantasy friendly game on the slate, so the real key is going to be how you get different elsewhere in your lineup. I find myself gravitating far more to Brock Purdy in tournaments as I continue to build lineups. He's cheaper, he has strong weapons, there are high-upside bring backs, and it's likely his ownership is half that of Tua. With all of the hype surrounding Zack Moss, a Colts passing stack is an easy pivot to get off of that chalk. This is a horrible week for high-upside stacks, so it's not crazy to use Cleveland, New England, New Orleans, or Indy stacks to save some money and use and high-end running back and Tyreek Hill as a one-off or secondary stack (with Curtis Samuel).
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Running Backs
1. Zack Moss (Indianapolis Colts - $4,600)
Assuming Jonathan Taylor misses this weekend’s game, and it’s highly likely that he does, then Zack Moss is your “free square” of the week at just $4,600. He’s been highly productive when Taylor is off the field, putting up scores of 20.7, 25.5, and 36.5 DraftKings points in three of the four games where he was the primary focus at running back for the Colts. From Week 2 through Week 7, he had no games with fewer than 14 opportunities, and that included multiple games with Taylor back on the field. When he was the primary focus for those four games, he averaged 25 opportunities per game; a true workhorse volume.
The Titans are viewed as a bad matchup for running backs, but since Week 5, they’ve allowed over 100 yards in five of seven games. The start of that stretch was the last time Moss faced them, and he scored a season-high 36.5 DraftKings points. The ownership is going to be off the charts for Moss this weekend, but that doesn’t matter at all in cash. Eat the chalk and use the savings to spend up at wide receiver.
2. Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $6,300)
3. Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons - $6,100)
Others in consideration: Kyren Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Running Backs
1. Najee Harris (Pittsburgh Steelers - $5,200)
Given his price, Zack Moss is the best play at running back for cash and GPP, but he’s also going to have the highest ownership. If Moss falters, then it’s worth looking at other plays to see where we can take advantage of the chalk missing. One place we can do that, at a similar price point, is with Najee Harris. He doesn’t have a big workload because of Jaylen Warren’s emergence, but it appears as if he’s still got the role of the goal-line back, and the coaching staff looks like they’re regaining some trust in him.
Over the last three weeks, he’s received no fewer than 14 opportunities, with 15 or more carries in three of those games. He’s responded well to the renewed workload with a touchdown and 69 or more rushing yards in three of the four games. Arizona is awful against running backs, allowing 90 or more rushing yards in every game this year. They got gashed the last two weeks by Kyren Williams and Devin Singletary, both of whom play very similar roles to Harris in their offenses. The threat of Warren gives me pause in cash games, but it’ll keep the ownership down on Harris and make him the perfect pivot off of Chalk Zack Moss.
Najee Harris was awesome today. pic.twitter.com/RFTM5K8Xsp
— Donny Football (@DonChed54) November 27, 2023
2. Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons - $6,100)
3. Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams - $7,200)
Others in consideration: Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Raheem Mostert, Jahmyr Gibbs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss
Sunday update: Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, and Kyren Williams are all going to be very low-owned. The easiest way to get different this weekend is to use them instead of cheap running backs. Stack a cheap passing game and go high-end running back, and if they hit you'll be part of a very select group of people who has that combination.
DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins - $9,600)
While Tua Tagovailoa has been inconsistent this year, his main weapon has been anything but that. Tyreek Hill has seen nine or more targets in all but one game this year. He’s had 100 or more receiving yards in seven of 11 games. He’s scored a touchdown in nine of 11 games. He’s scored 20 or more DraftKings points in eight of 11 games. We haven’t seen consistency like this at the wide receiver position since Cooper Kupp a couple of years ago, and who knows how long prior to that. Hill is the best wide receiver in the league and provides the safest floor of any player in fantasy not named Christian McCaffrey, and he does so at a position of significant variability.
He’s got one of the best matchups on the slate this weekend against a bad Commanders defense, and even though he’s priced at $9,600, he’s easily affordable in cash games because of value at the other positions. Hill will be chalky because you can pair him with Zack Moss for an average cost of $7,100 (which is a steal), but that only makes him more of a non-negotiable as he will kill your chances of cashing if you fade him and he pops off. Roster him and take the high floor.
#NFL Receiving Yard Leaders #Dolphins Tyreek Hill - 1,324#Chargers Keenan Allen - 1,117#Cowboys CeeDee Lamb - 1,066 #Eagles AJ Brown - 1,050 #Bears DJ Moore - 1,003#Lions Amon-Ra St. Brown - 993#Bills Stefon Diggs - 969 #Rams Puka Nacua - 924#Bengals Ja'Marr Chase - 914… pic.twitter.com/ewCpNtztS9
— NFL Rumors (@nflrums) November 28, 2023
2. Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts - $7,100)
3. Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers - $6,400)
Others in consideration: DeVante Parker, DeVonta Smith, Diontae Johnson, Curtis Samuel, Greg Dortch
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos - $5,400)
Although he will be chalky, Tyreek Hill is the best option for tournaments as well, but it’s boring to write about him twice so let’s talk about a strong mid-range option instead. Courtland Sutton’s pricing is downright disrespectful. He’s been the top receiver in Denver all season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but two games this year. What he lacks in volume (only two games of more than seven targets), he makes up for with touchdowns. Sutton has scored in seven of the last nine games, ranking him near the top of the league in receiving touchdowns. He is a red zone monster and has a flair for the dramatic.
This week, he gets to participate in the weekly track meet against the Houston Texans. It seems like every game the Texans play is close, and they’ve been allowing big games to opposing passing games for weeks. A Denver stack is very inexpensive, but what interests me more is using Sutton with a Houston piece as a secondary stack to a Miami, San Francisco, or Philly main stack (Devin Singletary looks mighty good at $5,900 against a horrendous Denver rushing defense).
2. Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins - $9,600)
3. A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles - $8,800)
Others in consideration: DeVonta Smith, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Cedric Tillman
Sunday update: DeVonta Smith looks to be criminally underowned this weekend. He's the bring-back I want on a San Francisco stack. I'm high on the Colts passing game, so Michael Pittman is someone to look at as part of a Colts stack or as a pivot off of a chalky Zack Moss. Adam Thielen is the perfect low-owned bring-back for a mini-stack with Rachaad White. The Broncos-Texans game could be a shootout so exposure to all pass catchers there would be good as main stacks or as secondary stacks. New Orleans could be a sneaky play with Chris Olave and A.T. Perry as my preferred pass-catching options. Lynn Bowden could be in play for them as a punt as well.
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Tight Ends
1. David Njoku (Cleveland Browns - $4,100)
Joe Flacco looks to be in line to start for the Browns this weekend, and do you know what Joe Flacco loves? That’s right, tight ends! David Njoku has scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last six weeks, yet his price continues to stay steady. He’s seen eight or more targets in five of those games, and if he wasn’t terrible at actually catching passes, he’d have posted an even bigger score last weekend (he dropped a touchdown and another pass where he had a wide-open field in front of him).
He’s a big-bodied guy who is great down the field and is a strong red zone threat. Add in an injury to Amari Cooper, and it’s not out of the question to think that Njoku could be the primary target for Flacco against the Rams in Week 13. He’s just too cheap for the volume he’s seeing right now and is a strong cash option with a solid floor.
2. Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals - $4,900)
3. Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers - $4,300)
Others in consideration: George Kittle, Taysom Hill, Tyler Conklin, Sam LaPorta, Juwan Johnson
Sunday update: There are only two options for cash at tight end this weekend - David Njoku or Brevin Jordan. Njoku is the more "sure" thing, but Jordan is priced at only $2,500 and opens up the possibility to get a little wild at wide receiver. As of now I have Njoku at tight end and Russell Wilson at quarterback, but it's not out of the question that I get a little nuts and go Flacco/Jordan and spend all the way up at wide receiver with Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman, and DeVonta Smith (or another high-end option).
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - D/ST
1. Cleveland Browns - $3,100
The choices for defense this week are not strong. There’s no real value outside of maybe the Saints and even that relies on Detroit continuing to turn the ball over. When in doubt, I tend to look for strong pass rushers in decent spots. There are few defenders who can pressure a quarterback quite like Myles Garrett, and he’s going to be taking shots against an immobile Matthew Stafford. Pressure leads to turnovers, and turnovers lead to fantasy points.
Cleveland has recorded three or more sacks in seven of their last nine games, and they’ve forced multiple turnovers in five games this year. That’s enough of a floor where I’m comfortable spending down for them rather than more expensive defenses like Miami and the LA Chargers, who it can be argued are in better spots.
2. New Orleans Saints - $2,700
3. Miami Dolphins - $3,900
Sunday update: The Indianapolis Colts get a ton of sacks so they are a strong option at just $3,200. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are heading towards the path of being chalk against the Panthers, but I'm not as in love with them as the field. Atlanta is the current chalk against the Jets, but I don't know if I trust them more than Cleveland, Indy, or New Orleans for a cheaper cost.
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