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NFL DFS Prop Picks for 9/22/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


The story of the NFL season, aside from Antonio Brown burning his career to the ground, is change at the quarterback position. It started with Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement before the season started and injuries an ineffectiveness have already prompted changes.

This week, Kyle Allen will start in place of Cam Newton for Carolina against Buffalo, third-stringer Luke Falk is set to start for the Jets against New England, Josh Rosen is getting the nod for Miami at Dallas, Daniel Jones replaces Eli Manning as the Giants’ starter against Tampa Bay, Teddy Bridgewater is starting for New Orleans in Seattle, and Mason Rudolph takes over from an injured Ben Roethlisberger for Pittsburgh at San Francisco.

Those are a lot of changes and that means a lot of unpredictability which can present some opportunities to find value when playing props.

Here are some angles to consider for Week Three NFL props on Monkey Knife Fight.

 

DENVER-GREEN BAY

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Aaron Rodgers UNDER 255.5 PASSING YARDS – Maybe this is the game when Rodgers gets back on track but the early signs this season haven’t been great and he’s averaging 206 passing yards per game through the first two weeks.

Joe Flacco OVER 235.5 PASSING YARDS – The Packers have had a stingy pass defense through the first couple of games which makes for a difficult matchup. Flacco, who hasn’t been particularly impressive in his first two games for the Broncos, has nevertheless averaged 280 yards per game.

RAPID FIRE

Aaron Jones -18.5 rushing yards vs. Phillip Lindsay – Coming off a game against the Vikings in which he had a career-high 23 carries for 116 yards, Jones would seem to have a higher ceiling than Lindsay, who is sharing time in the Broncos backfield with Royce Freeman.

 

ATLANTA-INDIANAPOLIS

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OVER/UNDERS

Matt Ryan UNDER 302.5 PASSING YARDS – While Ryan has put up some yardage in the first couple of games this season, throwing for 312 yards per game, the Colts Defense has allowed just 147 passing yards per game through the first two weeks.

Jacoby Brissett UNDER 226.5 PASSING YARDS – While the Colts QB has been accurate, completing 69.1% of his passes, Indianapolis has been running a conservative passing attack, with Brissett averaging just 168 passing yards per game through two weeks of action.

RAPID FIRE

Julio Jones -24.5 receiving yards vs. T.Y. Hilton – Considering the modest Colts passing game, it is preferable to side with Jones, who gets double digit targets on a weekly basis and has averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game since the start of the 2018 season.

 

BALTIMORE-KANSAS CITY

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OVER/UNDERS

Patrick Mahomes OVER 315.5 PASSING YARDS – The Ravens Defense is good but Mahomes has been great, averaging 410.5 passing yards per game through the first two weeks, and doing it for the most part without number one receiving threat Tyreek Hill.

Lamar Jackson OVER 265.5 PASSING YARDS – The big question for Jackson entering the season was whether he could pass accurately enough to be an effective NFL quarterback. Those questions have been silenced in the first two weeks, with Jackson averaging 298 passing yards per game.

RAPID FIRE

Travis Kelce +0.5 receiving yards vs. Sammy Watkins – Although Watkins erupted in Week One, Kelce is the more reliable option as a receiver on a week-in, week-out basis.

 

CINCINNATI-BUFFALO

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OVER/UNDERS

Andy Dalton OVER 245.5 PASSING YARDS – The Bills have a strong defense but the Bengals have been able to throw the ball down the field in the first couple of weeks, with Dalton averaging 364.5 passing yards per game.

Josh Allen OVER 232.5 PASSING YARDS – While Allen has been improving, leading the Bills to a 2-0 start, he still has relatively modest passing totals. It’s enough to like the over here, but he has passed for 253.5 yards per game in the first two weeks of the season.

RAPID FIRE

Frank Gore -13.5 rushing yards vs. Joe Mixon – With word that rookie Devin Singletary is out with a hamstring injury, the door is open for ageless Gore to handle the bulk of the work in the Bills backfield.

 

N.Y. JETS-NEW ENGLAND

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OVER/UNDERS

Tom Brady UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Even without Antonio Brown this is an achievable number for Brady. The only question is when the Patriots call off the dogs in an expected blowout. If the Pats are winning comfortably, like they did last week against Miami, Brady may not need to throw that much.

Luke Falk UNDER 205.5 PASSING YARDS – The Jets’ third-string quarterback stepped in for an injured Trevor Siemian last week and completed 20 of 25 passes for 198 yards, an impressive enough first appearance in the NFL for the 2018 sixth-round pick. However, starting against a Patriots team that has been dominating through the first two weeks seems like a difficult first start for Falk.

RAPID FIRE

Josh Gordon -16.5 receiving yards vs. Jamison Crowder – Brown’s departure should mean more looks for Gordon and with questions surrounding the Jets passing game against the Patriots Defense, he is the safer side in this matchup.

 

DETROIT-PHILADELPHIA

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OVER/UNDERS

Matthew Stafford OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS – This is not an insignificant number to cover, but the advantage for Stafford is that the Eagles have allowed 340 passing yards per game in the first two weeks of the season.

Carson Wentz UNDER 267.5 PASSING YARDS – Detroit’s defense has been quietly effective through the first two weeks, allowing a net 5.9 yards per passing attempt, good enough that they could keep Wentz in check, relatively speaking.

RAPID FIRE

Nelson Agholor +2.5 receptions vs. Zach Ertz – With Alshon Jeffery unlikely to play for the Eagles, Agholor should receive a good portion of the targets in the Philadelphia passing game, which could keep him within range of star tight end Ertz.

 

OAKLAND-MINNESOTA

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OVER/UNDERS

Derek Carr UNDER 231.5 PASSING YARDS – The Raiders passing game brings uncertainty and that doesn’t help Carr, who is trying to manage an offense in which Tyrell Williams is the No. 1 receiver.

Kirk Cousins OVER 220.5 PASSING YARDS – The Vikings quarterback has struggled early this season but was averaging more than 268 passing yards per game last season and he has the personnel to put up big numbers again.

RAPID FIRE

Adam Thielen -5.5 receiving yards vs. Tyrell Williams – While Williams is getting a bigger role with the Raiders, he’s not as proven as Thielen and this margin is not too much to cover.

 

MIAMI-DALLAS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Dak Prescott OVER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – The Cowboys have a suddenly impressive passing attack and the only reason to think that Prescott won’t surpass this threshold is if Dallas opens up a big lead and stops passing. That’s a real possibility but Prescott has expanded his passing repertoire and it should be too much for the Dolphins to handle.

Josh Rosen OVER 197.5 PASSING YARDS – While Rosen hasn’t done much yet in his NFL career, he is likely to be throwing a lot as the Dolphins quarterback because they will be trailing. Is that enough to throw for 200 yards? Sure, why not.

RAPID FIRE

Devin Smith -2.5 receiving yards vs. Devante Parker – Smith emerged last week with three catches for 74 yards and a touchdown, this after a few seasons as a spare part with the Jets. In this case, Smith also gets the favorable matchup of facing the Dolphins Defense while Parker has to deal with the Dallas defense.

 

N.Y. GIANTS-TAMPA BAY

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jameis Winston OVER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – The Bucs passing attack was supposed to be amplified by the hiring of head coach Bruce Arians but it has been entirely pedestrian through the first two weeks, with Winston averaging 201 passing yards per game. If he can’t get it done against this Giants team maybe it’s not going to happen.

Daniel Jones UNDER 219.5 PASSING YARDS – The world was stunned when Jones was selected sixth overall in this year’s draft so it comes as some surprise that he’s been inserted into the starter’s role so quickly. If the Giants had a strong receiving corps it might be a bit easier to project a big debut for Jones but, as it is, expectations should be modest.

RAPID FIRE

Saquon Barkley -26.5 rushing yards vs. Peyton Barber – Even with the Giants struggling, Barkley has still averaged 113.5 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks. If he just maintains that average, Barber would need 87 yards to keep up and that’s a total he’s surpassed twice in his career.

 

CAROLINA-ARIZONA

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Kyler Murray OVER 271.5 PASSING YARDS – Murray’s passing results have been tilted towards late in the game as he’s passed for 324 yards in the fourth quarter and overtime, and 333 yards in the first three quarters. What that has shown is that it can be done and Murray does seem to have the weapons available with wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk getting a lot of action in the first two games.

Kyle Allen OVER 236.5 PASSING YARDS – The Panthers have accumulated passing yards even with Cam Newton looking like a shelf of his former self. It’s not easy to put expectations on Allen, a rookie making his first career start but he has thrown for 266 yards on 31 passes so it’s not unreasonable to think he can hit at least 237 in this game.

RAPID FIRE

D.J. Moore -0.5 receptions vs. Christian McCaffrey – While McCaffrey has more of a track record to lean on, Moore has been targeted 24 times through the first two games this season, catching 16. It’s a lot for any running back to keep pace at that rate.

 

PITTSBURGH-SAN FRANCISCO

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Last week at Cincinnati, when he passed for 296 yards, was a refreshing performance from Garoppolo, who had been kept under 270 yards in five of his previous six starts. Still, not ready to bank on him going for more than 275 yards.

Mason Rudolph OVER 238.5 PASSING YARDS – The Steelers probably need to turn the rookie loose more than they did in his first relief performance when he completed 12 of 19 passes for just 112 yards against Seattle.  They have the personnel to get the ball downfield.

RAPID FIRE

Vance McDonald +0.5 receptions vs. Deebo Samuel – As something of a hedge, if the Steelers don’t throw down the field very much, McDonald caught all seven of his targets last week and could be a reliable safety valve for an inexperienced quarterback.

 

HOUSTON-L.A. CHARGERS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Philip Rivers OVER 287.5 PASSING YARDS – The Texans’ secondary isn’t great and Rivers has thrown for 626 yards in two games and not only does he have threats Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at wide receiver but running back Austin Ekeler has 163 yards receiving through the first two games.

Deshaun Watson OVER 256.5 PASSING YARDS – Although Watson was kept under wraps by Jacksonville last week, he had thrown for at least 257 yards in four of his previous five starts.

RAPID FIRE

Carlos Hyde +11.5 rushing yards vs. Austin Ekeler – As noted above, Ekeler has been a big factor for the Chargers, especially as a receiver. Hyde has had a surprisingly large share of the carries for the Texans, gaining 173 yards on 30 carries in the first two weeks.

 

NEW ORLEANS-SEATTLE

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Russell Wilson OVER 239.5 PASSING YARDS – There is potential for Wilson to put up big passing numbers even though he had been held under 240 yards in six of seven games before going for 300 last week and the Saints Defense does have a tendency to surrender those yards.

Teddy Bridgewater OVER 211.5 PASSING YARDS – It’s been a while (Dec. 2015) since Bridgewater threw for at least 212 yards but he hasn’t started a lot of games in that time either. Taking the over here is based on that low number being easily achievable given the talent surrounding Bridgewater in New Orleans.

RAPID FIRE

Alvin Kamara -6.5 rushing yards vs. Chris Carson – In the first two weeks, Kamara has averaged 71 rushing yards, compared to 53 rushing yards per game for Carson and it probably makes sense for the Saints to give Kamara more touches.

 

L.A. RAMS-CLEVELAND

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Baker Mayfield OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS – Mayfield is feeling himself a bit these days and has thrown for at least 275 yards in four straight starts. Mix in the likelihood that they will either be trailing the Rams or forced to throw to keep pace and Baker can keep airing it out for another week.

Jared Goff UNDER 259.5 PASSING YARDS – Although Goff busted out for 283 passing yards last week, he had been held under 280 yards in seven of his previous nine starts (including last season’s playoffs).

RAPID FIRE

Odell Beckham Jr. -18.5 receiving yards vs. Cooper Kupp – Kupp is very good but has 160 yards in two weeks as part of a diversified Rams passing game while Beckham has 232 receiving yards as the clear No. 1 option for Mayfield.

 

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