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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The early part of the MLB season has been good to me, so I'm looking to build off that momentum and hit the ground running as we progress into the 2024 campaign. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's slate!
We have some really interesting matchups today. The pitching mix is light on aces and instead offers a selection of midrange starters and back-of-the-rotation punt arms, which will certainly lead to some interesting lineup decisions. I'll point out the standout plays, but with a 10-game slate and so many options on the mound, there will be plenty of opportunity to get creative with your picks today.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/21/2024 and the slate locking at 1:35 p.m. EDT. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential.
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Nola vs. Chicago White Sox ($10.8K DK, $10.3K FD)
The price tag on Aaron Nola feels a little excessive, but it makes sense when you consider the matchup. The Chicago White Sox are the worst team in baseball right now. They own a horrid 3-17 record and are plating just 2.2 runs per game. The struggles include a league-worst 66 wRC+ against right-handed pitching alongside a .299 slugging percentage. Philadelphia Phillies starting pitchers have taken no-hit bids into the seventh inning or later during each of the first two games of this series.
Following a brutal season debut, Aaron Nola has responded nicely over his past three outings, surrendering just three total earned runs over 19 innings pitched. Overall, he sports a strong 3.47 ERA, though he is noticeably lacking in certain areas so far this season. Nola is striking out only 19.8% of batters, well below his 27.1% career strikeout rate. However, he boasts a strong 32.5% chase rate, and the strikeout numbers will more than likely start moving toward his average. He is somewhat overpriced, but rostering Nola offers the most peace of mind on this slate.
Luis Gil vs. Tampa Bay Rays ($7.9K DK, $8K FD)
It may be asking too much, but if Luis Gil could reduce his absurd 23% walk rate, he might emerge as one of the league's premier pitchers. The rest of his pitching profile borders on elite. That includes a 2.45 xERA, .098 xBA, .120 xSLG, 0% barrel rate, and a 26.9% hard-hit rate. The most impressive part is Gil's 32.8% strikeout rate and 33.3% whiff rate. He has struck out at least six batters in each of his first three outings this season. Gil is certainly risky because of the control issues, but he offers an excellent upside for his price.
The Tampa Bay Rays bring a middling offense into this showdown. They are scoring fewer than 4.1 runs per game on the season, including a similarly underwhelming 104 wRC+ and .375 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. Interestingly, the Rays carry just a 7.1% walk rate for the season, the second-lowest mark in the majors. That could be critical to Luis Gil's success in this matchup.
Also Consider: Tanner Bibee, Sonny Gray
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— Jon Irvin (@jonjirvin) April 17, 2024
DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bobby Witt Jr. - SS, KC vs. Cole Irvin ($6.4K DK, $3.7K FD)
At this point, Bobby Witt Jr. requires little justification. He's slashing .302/.355/.581 with four home runs, four stolen bases, and a 172 wRC+. If there was any doubt about his on-field results, the advanced metrics are even more incredible. Witt boasts an incredible .470 xwOBA, .746 xSLG, 95.5 MPH average exit velocity, 21% barrel rate, and a 64.5% hard-hit rate.
Cole Irvin can't be expected to succeed in this matchup. Through three starts, he sports a 5.89 xERA. Irvin is getting roasted by opposing hitters to the tune of an 18% barrel rate, 91.9 MPH average exit velocity, 46% hard-hit rate, and a .543 xSLG. The small sample size can't be blamed too heavily on his behalf, considering Irvin surrendered a .492 xSLG last season, part of a .465 career mark.
Nolan Arenado - 3B, STL vs. Colin Rea ($4.7K DK, $3K FD)
We are accustomed to Nolan Arenado being a perennial 30-home run threat, so the lack of power output is somewhat concerning. However, he has still been a consistent producer. Arenado is slashing .298/.330/.398 for the season. He has hit safely in 18 out of his last 19 games, and it is probably only a matter of time until his home run stroke re-emerges.
Colin Rea presents a very advantageous matchup. Across his first three outings, the 33-year-old carries a 6.24 xERA. The struggles include a horrible .340 xBA, 90.8 MPH average exit velocity, and a .511 xSLG.
Salvador Perez - 1B/C, KC vs. Cole Irvin ($3.7K DK, $3.4K FD)
We already covered why Cole Irvin is a pitcher worth targeting today, and Salvador Perez is another way to get in on that action. Following an inexplicable price reduction, Perez feels exceptionally cheap on DraftKings today. He is slashing .342/.390/.605 with six home runs on the season. The success consists of a phenomenal .654 xSLG, 16.9% barrel rate, 49.2% hard-hit rate, and a .413 xwOBA. Given his price and multi-positional eligibility, it should not be hard to prioritize Perez.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Yordan Alvarez - OF, HOU vs. Mitchell Parker ($5.6K DK, $3.9K FD)
If you've got enough salary, you cannot go wrong with rostering Yordan Alvarez today (or any day). He sports an impressive .291/.378/.500 slash line with five home runs and a 149 wRC+. The surface numbers are predictably great, but it's Alvarez's advanced metrics that really underscore his dominance at the plate -- .698 xSLG, 15.7% barrel rate, 93 MPH average exit velocity, and a .335 xBA.
Alvarez's opponent today is somewhat of an enigma. Mitchell Parker's major league career is just one start deep. It was a reasonably successful outing, as the 24-year-old surrendered only two runs over five innings against a terrifying Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Still, the jury is out on Parker, and his minor league numbers don't suggest he'll be any sort of impact player at this level. Parker posted an uninspiring 4.74 ERA across 124 innings pitched between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023. I'm inclined to forget his debut performance and bet on a loaded Houston Astros lineup taking advantage of an inexperienced hurler.
Chas McCormick - OF, HOU vs. Mitchell Parker ($3.7K DK, $2.8K FD)
Continuing with the Houston Astros tout, Chas McCormick is another bat worth consideration. He's off to a slow start in 2024, but his price has dropped accordingly, and it feels like we have arrived at the point where he is an underrated value. McCormick posted a .842 OPS last season, alongside 22 home runs and a 133 wRC+. Most importantly, he terrorized left-handed pitching, slugging .610 against southpaws, part of a .550 career mark. At only 29 years old, McCormick should still have plenty of juice left in his bat and it's only a matter of time until he catches fire again.
Jesse Winker - OF, WSH vs. Cristian Javier ($3.6K DK, $3K FD)
Jesse Winker has been one of the more surprising successes for far in 2024. After back-to-back disappointing seasons, Winker has bounced back in a big way. The 30-year-old sports a .339/.455/.532 slash line with a 180 wRC+. That consists of a .486 xSLG, 11.1% barrel rate, 37.8% sweet-spot rate, and a .395 xwOBA.
Cristian Javier is not among the worst pitchers on this slate, but he is far from infallible. The 27-year-old carries a 5.37 xFIP, up from a 5.16 xFIP in 2023. Outside of an ugly walk rate, Javier's primary weakness is left-handed hitters. Lefties slugged .470 against Javier last year, and the early returns on this season suggest he has not overcome the problem.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Kansas City Royals vs. Cole Irvin
- Favorite Plays: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt Jr., Nelson Velazquez, Maikel Garcia
2. Houston Astros vs. Mitchell Parker
- Favorite Plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick
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