RADIO
Things started off on the right foot with Tampa Bay exploding in the middle innings to eventually win 5-1. Then we saw a pitchers duel with Chicago(AL)/Milwaukee but the Brewers made some errors that eventually cost them the game. Then Texas had a 1-0 lead into the eighth before the bullpen imploded, giving up a walk-off grand slam to Stephen Piscotty, putting a real damper on the day. A few pitches away from positivity, but that is exactly how baseball works. We expect disappointment like this.
- Tuesday, August 4th: 1-2 (-1.14 units)
- 2020 Season Total: 6-6-2 (-0.59 units)
We move onto another day and another slate of games in a season clouded by a pandemic that makes everything questionable. I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but if you look in the right spots and know what value you're looking for, you can sometimes enjoy betting on sports.
Myself, along with Tommy Bell have been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm here to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Wednesday, August 5th. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!
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O/U: 8.5
MIN: Randy Dobnak, PIT: Trevor Williams
Dobnak has gotten some attention after posting scoreless appearances against the White Sox and Indians, but he's thrown just nine innings with a 7/4 K/BB. The Pirates are the worst offense in baseball right now so this couldn't be a better matchup, but his underlying numbers say he's due for some regression. A .304 xBA and .399 xSLG along with stranding 90% of runners isn't sustainable. In his favor is the lineup that just dropped 12 runs in their L2 against Pittsburgh. This same Twins lineup was arguably the best against RHP on the road in 2019, hitting .272 with 127 homers and .512 SLG!
Trevor Williams once fooled Pirate fans into thinking he was good (trust me, first hand). He backed that up horrendously in 2019 by posting a 5.38 ERA, including a 5.54 mark at home. He's been consistent to that through his first 8.1 innings, allowing three runs in each outing. He's been relying on his fastball-slider mix and neither have been even close to good enough. The Pirates lineup puts even more pressure on Williams. They're hitting .160 as a team against RHP with a .219 wOBA but they were much better a season ago, so maybe they're really missing Starling Marte. Josh Bell looks lost at the plate and no one else is even worth name dropping, but they have been able to scrap across seven runs in the last two.
This total likely won't last, even with how bad Pittsburgh's lineup has been. Dobnak is a groundball pitcher who is due to regress, while the cat is out of the bag on Williams. Look for him to get tagged at home, with the Pirates being able to pick up some scraps of their own.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (-159)
O/U: 8.5
BOS: Martin Perez, TB: Ryan Yarbrough
Perez hasn't impressed through his first two starts with Boston, throwing 10.2 innings while allowing seven runs with a 7/6 K/BB. However, the southpaw has done an incredible job limiting hard contact (80.8 mph avg exit velocity). If he can combine the soft contact and improve his control issues (career 8.5 BB%), he would prove serviceable. Not surprising is that the lineup has carried their weight (mostly). They've hit lefties especially well, slashing .301/.358/.514 with seven homers. They won't have an easy matchup, but they'll be ready to get out of their four-game skid.
Yarbrough has made some noise through his first two starts, allowing just two runs over 11.2 innings against Toronto and Atlanta. The southpaw has also been great at limiting hard contact (80.2 mph avg exit velocity) while minimizing big innings with a 0.86 WHIP. However, in 2019, the 28-year-old had an ERA that was two points higher at home than on the road (5.46 ERA). Offensively, the Rays got a huge boost getting Austin Meadows (COVID) back Tuesday and their 5-1 win showed that. So far, Tampa Bay is hitting just .220 against LHP but did hit .255 with 66 homers versus southpaws in 2019.
Yarbrough is a solid arm who is riding momentum on the bump. However, Boston's lineup has too much talent combined with their early success against LHP. I don't dislike the over here, but I think the Red Sox are able to get to Yarbrough on his own field, like so many others have done before.
Pick: Boston ML +135 (Draftkings) 1 Unit
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 9
TOR: Hyun-Jin Ryu, ATL: Sean Newcomb
Ryu hasn't been the $80 million man the Blue Jays signed him to be but Toronto has had a weird start to 2020. The southpaw is fresh off one of the best years of his career and now has the chance to be the guy. His sub-two WHIP is surely worrisome but we have to give him some time to get into a rhythm. The Blue Jays lineup is young and full of future stars, but for now, they're struggling. Teoscar Hernandez and Cavan Biggio have carried things from a production standpoint. In 2019, Toronto hit just .243 against LHP, so they'll look tat the short season as a way to improve against southpaws.
Atlanta made up for losing Mike Soroka for the year by downing Toronto 10-1 on Tuesday. Now Newcomb will look to silence the Jays after getting shelled by the Mets his last time out. He carried a 2.14 ERA at home a year ago, but that was mainly out of the bullpen, whereas in 2018 as a starter, he posted a 5.12 ERA at home. He's elevating his fastball a lot and struggling to keep his breaking pitches down, which can be a recipe for disaster. After scoring 10 runs on Tuesday, it's hard to be down on the Braves. However, they have been struggling against lefties this year, batting .168 with three homers and 41 strikeouts (second-worst). Before Tuesday, Marcell Ozuna and Dansby Swanson had been the catalysts so it will be interesting to see if the 10-run outburst propels Atlanta.
Ryu is clearly the better pitcher in this matchup but the Jays will be playing just their second game since last Thursday, July 30. Sure, they may be rested but a several day break isn't always good for a lineup that was already struggling. On the Braves side, they really struggle against southpaws and I think we see Ryu show his true talent here on the road.
Pick: Under 9 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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