MLB Betting Picks (8/14/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

August 14, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 8/14/2020. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, runlines, and more!

Baltimore continued their hot hitting by tagging Jake Arrieta for four runs before dropping seven more on the Phillies bullpen, easily cashing the over themselves. Then the Padres got off to a hot start with two home runs in their first at-bat. However, the Dodgers came out stronger, scoring all of their 11 runs in the first five innings. That likely wouldn't happen again if they tried, so you tip your cap and move on to Friday!

• Thursday, Aug 13th: 1-1 (-.13 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 10-14-2 (-4.67 units)

I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional and that each play is going to be "bet to lose" one unit. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but this is all supposed to be fun so please only do this if you enjoy it. We finally have sports back and it's been a blast finally being able to research team trends.

Our betting team has been busy bringing you daily analysis, recommendations, and predictions for this wild 2020 MLB season. I'm pleased to bring you my insight for the MLB slate on Friday, August 14th. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-186)

O/U: 9.5

KC: Jakob Junis, MIN: Jake Odorizzi

Junis has some pretty terrible metrics through his first two starts, or nine innings of 2020. He gave up just two runs against these Twins his last time out, but they were both solo home runs. He hasn't shown much stuff thus far, holding a 4/4 K/BB and has just a 15 Whiff%. He had just under three BB/9 and a 1.59 HR/9 in 2019. Offensively, the Royals hit RHP at a .243 clip, but they're much worse against righties on the road, holding a team slash line of .219/.278/.366 with a .281 wOBA. Outside of Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield, and Salvador Perez, this Royals lineup isn't much to write home about.

Odorizzi feels like he's been around forever, but he's coming off a career season. He made his first start of 2020 August 8 against these Royals and allowed two runs over three innings, but there's more here. The 20-year-old finished 2019 with a .233 xBA and a 27 K%. The Twins pose one of the best lineups in the game, but for some reason they struggle at home, scoring just 3.8 runs per game while batting .220 with a .296 wOBA. However, five guys have four or more homers and four have double digit RBI.

The Twins typically take care of business at home, despite not scoring a ton at Target Field, going 6-2 on the runline as hosts. Meanwhile, KC is 8-3 on the runline as visitors so this one could be closer but the Twins' lineup give them a distinct advantage against a fly ball pitcher.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (+110, Draftkings) 1 Unit

San Diego Padres (-122) at Arizona Diamondbacks

O/U: 9

SD: Dinelson Lamet, AZ: Merrill Kelly 

Lamet is setting himself up to have a nice season, as he's 2-0 through four starts and 22.1 innings. He's allowed just one earned run in each start and has a 28/7 K/BB with a 0.85 WHIP. He's in the 70th percentile of K%, xSLG, xBA, and Whiff % and at 28 years old, he seems to be on the verge of a breakout. His lineup behind him has been surging, thanks to guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wil Myers. As a team, they're slashing .236/.323/.454 with a .219 ISO. They average over five runs on the road and have a favorable matchup against a pitcher prone to the long ball.

Kelly has been quite impressive through his first three starts, going at least six frames in each outing while not allowing more than three runs in any start. However, he has given up four homers thus far. He's got a 15/1 K/BB but he's in the 25th percentile of xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA so don't be surprised when he falls apart in a start. The DBacks don't have any heroes on offense, but Starling Marte has proven a welcome addition, while Ketel Marte and Christian Walker are their strong returners. They're hitting RHP at a .247 clip with a .711 OPS but just a 95 wRC+.

Lamet has been the Padres best arm so far and while Kelly has had some solid starts, something has to give soon if he keeps serving up taters. You don't just give up four homers in three starts and carry a 2.00+ ERA through the season. This San Diego offense will be one to watch all season and if an arm like Lamet can maintain his pace, they'll be a tough opponent through the end of the season.

Pick: San Diego ML (-122, Fanduel) 1 Unit

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