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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 4/1/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
We've done it! We've made it to Opening Day of 2021 and Major League Baseball is set to begin their 162-game schedule, following last year's shortened season. This is truly one of the best days of the sports calendar!
I'm Steve Janik and I'm here to bring my insight, analysis and picks to help you make informed betting decisions this season. I've been writing up betting picks for RotoBaller since the 2019 NCAA football season and have covered both football and baseball. I am probably most known around these parts for my wild 2020 KBO gambling success when that was the only sport we had to bet on during the COVID shutdowns. I also handicapped some MLB last season, but it didn't end up very well, going 17-24-2 (-9u). Just like everything else with 2020, we want to put that in the past!
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 7.5 | CIN +1.5 | CIN -110
STL: Jack Flaherty; CIN: Luis Castillo
Jack Flaherty will head this Cardinals staff in 2021, despite a rough 2020 season. The 25-year-old has struggled slightly on the road over 205.1, hosting a 3.94 ERA, 10 BB%, and .285 BABIP, all marks considerably higher than when he pitches at Busch Stadium. Though his K% is only slightly higher as a visitor. The lineup now boasts Nolan Arenado, which should help Paul Goldschmidt, but the rest of the batting order shouldn't scare many opposition pitching staffs to start.
Luis Castillo has shown glimpses of being an elite, young pitcher for this Reds team, but has yet to hone in on the consistency. He holds a career 3.62 ERA but is better at home with a 3.18 ERA. He backs that up with a .269 wOBA, .253 BABIP, and a 29 K% in 283.1 innings at Great American Ballpark. The Reds lineup is going a bit underrated heading into the regular season, but with bats like Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Eugenio Suarez filling out the middle of the order, I like them to make some noise this season.
I'm riding Castillo being more comfortable at home, and while Arenado is now a Red Bird, Cincy's overall lineup is better. I also give the Reds a bullpen advantage, so as long as Castillo holds up his end, the Reds should start the season on the right foot.
Pick: Cincinnati ML (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 7 | ATL -1.5 | PK
ATL: Max Fried; PHI: Aaron Nola
The Braves come into 2021 returning one of the most feared lineups in the game and intend on riding them to another NL East championship. Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Ozzie Albies are the main feared names in this lineup that scored the second-most runs in 2020. Against RH starters in 2020, they slashed .275/.356/.498 with 86 home runs and 293 runs scored, so this is a great opening day spot for the Braves. Fried will take the ball for his first open day start after going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA last year. The southpaw is a young star but has struggled on the road in the past. Across 142 career road innings, the 27-year-old carries 3.93 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a .265/.343/.422 opponent slash line. The real worrisome stat is the near 20 HR/FB%, six points higher than at home.
The Phillies lineup isn't quite as stacked as Atlanta's but returning the entire lineup for an offense that tied for the fifth most runs a year ago is a good place to start. In a shortened season, five guys slugged double-digit homers and six hitters had 25+ RBI. As a team, they hit 27 homers against LHP a season ago, with 18 of them coming at home, so this righty-heavy lineup is rather potent against southpaws. Nola has been very good at home, almost a totally different pitcher in some interesting ways. His career 2.99 ERA at home is a point lower than on the road, but he's given up 53 homers at "The Bank" compared to just 39 as a visitor. So this means the 27-year-old limits big outbursts, but when they happen, they come in the form of home runs.
This matchup pits two of the best arms in the NL East and possibly two of the best offenses in the entire league. I don't think either pitcher will leave the game totally unscathed, but the favorable matchup is on Atlanta's side, especially when Nola has to leave. Philly had one of the worst bullpens in recent memory in 2020, boasting a 7.06 ERA as a unit. Woof. I think we see fireworks in this opener.
Pick: Over 7 (-112, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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