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Five fantasy football running back values and sleepers to target in the middle rounds of 2023 drafts. Can these running backs surpass their ADP expectations?
The middle of the fantasy draft is essential, and managers want to draft high-upside players that can provide a great return on value. Fantasy managers can afford to take some risks on a variety of different players, including forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even skilled players with potential playing time concerns.
In this article, we take a look at some mid-round running backs for you to consider drafting this season. Our editors have hand-picked these specific NFL players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2023 Draft Kit.
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Dameon Pierce, Texans, Fantasy Football Outlook
Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce is coming off a successful rookie campaign that saw the former Florida Gator play in 13 games, finishing with 220 carries for 939 yards and four touchdowns. He also caught 30 passes for 165 yards and another score.
The first-year back finished eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 72.2 and was the only real bright spot on a Texans offense that finished 30th in the NFL in points scored and 31st in total yards. That should change in 2023 with the addition of rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and some better skill position pieces, which will likely help open the field up more for Pierce, as opposing defenses will need to account for the passing attack in a way they didn't really need to in 2022.
The Texans added former Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary in free agency, though, which could impact Pierce's volume. However, he should still see the majority of Houston's rushing attempts.
Singletary siphoning off touches does keep Pierce from ascending to the RB1 tier, but he's a strong RB2 play in 2023, albeit one whose upside could be capped if the offense around him isn't as elevated by all the new pieces as it's projected to be.
Miles Sanders, Panthers, Fantasy Football Outlook
Carolina Panthers running back Miles Sanders moved on from Philadelphia this past offseason and signed a 4-year $25.4 million contract with the Panthers. After trading Christian McCaffrey at the deadline in 2022, Carolina proceeded to give veteran D'Onta Foreman 203 carries, with Chuba Hubbard mixing in for 95 of his own.
McCaffrey and Foreman combined for 288 of the team's 483 total carries in 2022. With the money spent for the former Eagles' starting running back this offseason, and a rookie quarterback under center, Sanders seems to be in line for a massive workload. Last season, the 26-year-old tallied 259 carries for 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those are again achievable numbers in 2023, especially with quarterback Jalen Hurts no longer taking away goal-line opportunities.
The Panthers' offensive ranked top 12 in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns last season and have upgraded by going from Foreman to Sanders. Seemingly a near lock for 250 carries and over 1,100 yards, after averaging 5 yards per carry in his first four seasons, the Penn State alum should be considered a solid RB2 with top 12 upside in 2023.
Javonte Williams, Broncos, Fantasy Football Outlook
Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (knee) was stuck in a frustrating committee in his rookie year in 2021 with Melvin Gordon III. However, 2022 was supposed to be the 23-year-old's coming-out party as the team's unquestioned RB1. The former second-round pick made it through only four games before tearing his ACL and LCL in Week 4 against the Las Vegas Raiders. The burning question for Williams' 2023 fantasy value is how long will it take for him to get back up to full speed?
Gordon is no longer in Denver, but Samaje Perine is now the new complementary back and is expected to have a substantial role early in the year, even if Williams is playing. Williams showed glimpses of greatness in his rookie year and topped 900 rushing yards despite seeing 15-plus carries only twice. He doesn't have world-class speed, but he's powerful and slippery at contact and has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in 21 games.
Williams has clear RB1 upside in fantasy once he's fully recovered, and the addition of head coach Sean Payton to run Denver's offense is a plus in 2023. The North Carolina product has made tremendous progress in his recovery from knee surgery and is set to see some preseason action. Despite the positive news on his recovery, the possibility that Williams will be eased in surely drop his stock to more of an RB2/3 on draft day.
James Cook, Bills, Fantasy Football Outlook
The Buffalo Bills surprised many when they drafted Georgia RB James Cook in the 2nd Round (63rd overall) of the 2022 NFL Draft. Cook had an efficient rookie season rushing 89 times for 507 yards (5.7 YPC) and two touchdowns to go with 21 receptions for 180 yards and another score.
Many expect Cook to take the next step with former lead back Devin Singletary now in Houston. The Bills' offense will feature plenty of 12 personnel after they drafted Utah Tight End Dalton Kincaid to be their "big slot" in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Cook will have competition for touches from Damien Harris and Latavius Murray. It's also worth noting he's only had 100+ carries in a season once, dating back to college. Cook is a fantastic receiver, and the receiving work is what we should hope for related to his fantasy production. Cook has a wide range of outcomes for 2023.
James Conner, Cardinals, Fantasy Football Outlook
Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner represents a true three-down, bell-cow tailback, a dying breed in today's NFL. The 28-year-old has his work cut out, though, to have a prosperous 2023 on the rebuilding Cardinals roster. While never lauded for his explosiveness, Conner logged a fantasy-fruitful 70.5% snap share last season. In effect, the two-time Pro Bowler's season low in total yards (51) furnished a very high floor.
Conner also shined amidst a red-hot end in 2022, piling up 102.1 total yards per game and seven total touchdowns over his last seven outings of the year. The former third-rounder put forth a high-end RB1-level 19.8 full-PPR fantasy points per game across this stretch.
Arizona's state of organizational flux seems to leave the six-year veteran at risk of losing snaps during 2023. However, the front office spent no draft capital on backfield help to threaten Conner's workload. The Cards could lean on the running game while in no rush to force back franchise quarterback Kyler Murray (knee) from a Week 14, '22 ACL tear.
Conner has absorbed 20.7 touches per game with 10 scores in eight career games without Murray in the desert. It's also worth noting that the power back handles 16.7 touches for 82.9 total yards per game in 11-lifetime contests sans DeAndre Hopkins. Conner's eighth-round ADP in 10-team leagues looks like a solid value, but his upside is still admittedly limited to volume-based, low-ceiling RB2 territories while running behind a shaky offensive line
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