Matthew Stafford to Rams, Jared Goff to Lions - Fantasy Impact

February 1, 2021

Scott Engel's full fantasy football breakdown of the trade between the Lions and Rams that sent Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles and Jared Goff to Detroit.

The Saturday night blockbuster trade between the Rams and Lions was a pro football rarity, the type of deal that would even stun the likes of those playing in an FFPC Superflex dynasty league. As noted by ESPN, it is the only trade in the common draft era to include two former No. 1 overall picks.

The rebuilding Lions sent longtime signature player Matthew Stafford to the Rams in exchange for Jared Goff, a third round pick this season and first-rounders in each of the next two seasons. The Rams get the perceived missing element to round out a potential Super Bowl team, and Goff gets an address change that appears to be needed.

But should fantasy players be excited about the deal?

Stafford’s Fantasy outlook in Los Angeles

In Los Angeles, the excitement is already apparent. This guy certainly can be considered as a spokesman for L.A.

I want to welcome Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles and the LA Rams!

— Earvin Magic Johnson (@MagicJohnson) January 31, 2021

There is no doubt that Stafford deserves this chance to play for a true contender, and it does push his fantasy ranking into the back end of the QB1 range. If you don’t draft a very elite, or dual threat QB in 2021, or won’t be rostering one in a keeper or dynasty format, you should be happy with Stafford as your Fantasy starter during the upcoming season.

From an NFL perspective, Stafford is still regarded as one of the better players at his position in the league. The Lions’ lack of playoff success often did not get pinned to him. That made a lot of sense, as the Detroit teams of the Stafford era were highly flawed around him, while he attempted to carry as much of the weight as he could.

Matthew Stafford is dealing with three different injures - thumb, ribs, ankle. The #Lions are once again playing in a meaningless Week 17 game with no playoff implications.

Matthew Stafford is playing.

Let's appreciate Stafford‘s toughness.pic.twitter.com/t0vu8FGzLf

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 3, 2021

Stafford often had to deal with various adverse factors that included offensive injuries to his pass-catchers, lack of consistent support from a running game, a defense that often forced him into shootouts and playing from behind, and coaching and front office elements that always made the environment a trying one. It was a losing culture that Stafford needed to leave behind and for Dan Campbell to erase.

In the post Calvin Johnson era, Stafford’s fantasy value often fluctuated from back-end QB1 to mid-range QB2. He was fantasy QB15 this past season, as the extended absence of Kenny Golladay certainly hurt him. The previous season, though, he was on pace for his best year since 2011, throwing for 2,499 yards and 19 TDs in an injury-shortened eight-game showing. He did finish as fantasy QB7 in 2017, when he finished with 4,446 yards and 29 TDs.

Playing from behind in Detroit was the frequent script for Stafford.

Career Splits when Trailing: 2090 for 3372, 24500 yards and 144 TDs.

Career Splits When Ahead: 1011 for 1062, 11408 and 77.

Those type of situations seem less likely in Los Angeles. Goff had 946 attempts when leading and 1000 when trailing during his Rams tenure. But Stafford still has the potential to maintain a steady QB1 presence in Los Angeles. For truly the first time in his career, he will be on a winning team that is well balanced on all sides of the ball, and he will be surrounded by a strong offensive supporting cast.

The Rams obviously see Stafford as the final part missing from a championship team. So as they did with Jalen Ramsey, they made a major move for the shorter term.

I don’t think the Rams are gonna think twice about those picks.

Stafford is the missing piece for them.

He can get them where they want to go.

Can’t waste Aaron Donald’s prime playing it safe.

— Lindsay Rhodes (@lindsay_rhodes) January 31, 2021

For fantasy purposes, the deep crew of playmakers Stafford inherits is obviously a plus. He will not have to rely on negative game scripts to boost his production, but can now aim to win meaningful games while taking advantage of the guys that will help him make it all click. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods drive defenses crazy will their abilities to attack from various levels, and Van Jefferson’s promise is apparent. Even if free agent Josh Reynolds does not return, Stafford’s new pass-catchers are designed to help him thrive, with their yardage after the catch skills and strong abilities to make high percentage grabs. Kupp was fifth in the league in YAC in 2020, and Woods was ninth.

Stafford will also get the support of a strong running game with a fast-rising Cam Akers ensuring offensive balance. Los Angeles has demonstrated they know how to stock good RB depth behind him in case of injury. Akers also has some real promise as a pass-catcher.

The 44 yard catch and run from Goff to Cam Akers on 3rd down may have been the most important offensive play of the game. Leading to a Cam Akers touchdown and a two possession lead. Great victory! pic.twitter.com/VqDhdTRGig

— RAMS ON FILM (@RamsOnFilm) January 10, 2021

A big apparent positive will be teaming with Sean McVay, who now gets the type of QB he needs to operate his offense at optimum levels. Without the likes of a passer with Stafford’s abilities, the McVay-shaped Rams passing game still finished fourth in 2019, fifth in 2018 and 10^th in 2017.

Oh yeah, he also won an NFC Championship with a lesser QB in 2018. That is a significant accomplishment in the NFL, even if the average fan is often dismissive of it. Lions fans can tell you it’s not easy to win a conference title. The Rams feel they can achieve in that stratosphere again, especially after winning the NFC Wild Card Game on the strength of their running game and defense. That is why they made yet another move to get back to the Super Bowl now.

Rams’ first round picks by year:
2016: Jared Goff
2017: None
2018: None
2019: None
2020: None
2021: None
2022: None
2023: None

And after trading Goff, the last player they took in the first round, the Rams aren’t scheduled to make another first round pick anytime soon.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 31, 2021

Ranking Stafford for 2021

Goff did throw for 4,688 yards and 32 TDs in 2018, when he finished as fantasy QB7. Those sorts of numbers seem to be attainable for Stafford with his new team. Base totals of 4,500 passing yards and 30 TD passes are very reasonable initial projections. Of course, Stafford is simply a more talented passer than Goff, and there may be some more upside than we can may perceive. As good as the Rams Defense is, there are destined to be some potential scoring slugfests in the division with the likes of Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and possibly a 49ers team with a new QB. Stafford is also scheduled to engage in showdowns with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady next season.

My 2021 initial QB ranks begin with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Murray, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. So Stafford, at best, will rank QB10 for me for now. He’s definitely in the 10 to 12 mix with the likes of Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and maybe Jalen Hurts as other possible considerations. If I don’t end up with one of the Top 9 guys, though, I will be very confident with Stafford as a QB1. With the natural new hype surrounding him from non-fantasy perspectives always influencing some decisions, it may be hard to get him past a QB12 pick in some 2021 leagues.

In dynasty leagues, Stafford now gains an uptick as well, as 33 years old simply is not “too old” for a quarterback. If you were concerned about your QB situation heading into 2021, you can now view at as more stable and with some increased statistical promise.

What About Goff?

Stafford is the obvious big real-life and fantasy winner here, and the future is now murky for Goff prior to the 2021 NFL Draft. Will the Lions draft a rookie to challenge him? If not, Goff, who is coming off a QB18 finish, won’t be viewed as the type who can recapture his 2018 fantasy form with his new team. Dan Campbell has indicated he won’t force players into certain schemes or systems, but will look to build around their strengths. So we won’t be expecting Goff to be much more than a sound decision-maker who doesn’t gun it very much when he is at his best with Detroit. The Lions can center the offense around D'Andre Swift to a heavy degree, and if they lose Kenny Golladay in free agency, Goff’s outlook will certainly take a bigger hit until we see how Detroit chooses to replace him.

There is still hope for Goff as an NFL QB, but for fantasy purposes, he will strictly be a two-QB league/superflex type who may  be capable of providing decent production in those formats. The story of the Detroit offseason is still being written, but Goff may not crack the  fantasy Top 20 at QB in 2021.

Other Factors to Consider

-Kupp and Woods both get a boost back to the point where they can be considered as higher-end WR2s for 2021. Akers is inside my Top 10 at RB, as he can finish off a lot of scoring drives for the Rams with a better QB running the show. Here is my in-depth 2021 Fantasy scouting report on Akers.

-The stakes are obviously raised for a possible Deshaun Watson move now, and the Jets and Dolphins both seem to be in prime positions to make such a deal, as both teams have young QBs and high draft choices they can offer.

-Make sure you follow RotoBaller’s Frank Ammirante on Twitter. He called this trade earlier in the month.

Matthew Stafford needs a change of scenery.

The Lions just hired Brad Holmes (former Rams college scouting director) as their new GM.

Sean McVay was a bit non-committal on Jared Goff, saying they're in "evaluation mode."

A Stafford-for-Goff trade is a nice fit for both teams.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) January 18, 2021

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